U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - COMPLEX DROUGHT
Fact Sheet #2, Fiscal Year (FY) 2002    May 17, 2002


Overview

- Southern Africa is currently facing a regional food security crisis, due
in part from adverse climate conditions for two consecutive growing
seasons. While a drought extends across much of the region, the worst
affected countries include Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Lesotho,
Mozambique, and Swaziland are also affected.  To date, the U.S. Government
(USG) has provided more than $49.6 million in emergency humanitarian
assistance in response to the food security crisis through the United
States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Office of Food for
Peace (USAID/FFP), the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance
(USAID/OFDA), and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The majority of the humanitarian assistance has been emergency food relief
provided by USAID/FFP. In addition to these contributions, USAID/FFP,
USAID/OFDA, and USAID's Famine Early Warning System (FEWS NET) are
actively monitoring the development of the food security crisis through
regular USAID field assessments and participation in wider assessments
conducted by the international humanitarian community. The World Food
Program (WFP) is currently providing emergency food assistance to more
than 2.6 million people in the region. Early reports indicate that the
crisis may be similar in magnitude to the 1995-1996 drought, which
affected approximately six million people.


Region

- According to the regional Drought Monitoring Center in Harare, Zimbabwe,
rainfall during the first three months of the rainy season, which extents
from October to April in Southern Africa, was within normal ranges
throughout much of the region. However, between January and March, dry
periods extended across large sections of the region, particularly from
southern Zimbabwe eastwards into southern Mozambique, and resulted in crop
failures and limited production.

- The regional drought, combined with political, economic, and social
conditions specific to each country, has resulted in household food
shortages. The potential large-scale humanitarian crises in Zimbabwe,
Malawi, and Zambia, and, to a lesser extent in Mozambique, Swaziland, and
Lesotho also exists. While agricultural production estimates are still
being finalized, the region is expected to face a deficit of more than
three million metric tons (MT) of maize for the April 2002 to March 2003
consumption year.  The Southern African Development Community (SADC)
estimates that there is an overall maize deficit of 3.22 million MT for
the drought affected SADC countries.

- Zimbabwe has traditionally been a food exporter, supplying much of the
food imported by food deficit countries in the region. However,
significant shortfalls in 2002 agricultural production in Zimbabwe are
having a direct impact on the price, availability, and accessibility of
food stocks throughout Southern Africa.

- Traditional rural coping mechanisms throughout the region have already
been strained?making it even more difficult for family households to deal
with the current food crisis.  For example, many rural populations,
especially in southern Zimbabwe and southern Zambia, rely on livestock as
a source of funds to purchase food during poor yield years.  In the past
several years, livestock diseases have taken a heavy toll on herds and
limited rural households' ability to buy food. Therefore, the health of
livestock and the ability to trade animals for cereals are key
determinants for maintaining food security for these populations.
USAID/FFP, USAID/OFDA, and FEWS NET continue to monitor the livestock
situation throughout the region.

- Joint WFP and U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Crop and Food
Supply Assessment Missions, working with Southern Africa Development
Community (SADC) Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources Office and FEWS
NET, are underway throughout the region. The purpose of these assessments
is to develop detailed analyses of the food and non-food humanitarian
assistance requirements during the April 2002 to March 2003 consumption
year.  The assessments will be completed in May and the results are
expected in early June.

- High prevalence rates of HIV/AIDS in much of the region leave large
potions of the population increasingly susceptible to health problems
associated with food shortages, including malnutrition. In addition, those
suffering from both malnutrition and HIV/AIDS are increasingly susceptible
to endemic diseases, such as cholera and malaria.

- The limited capacity of the regional logistics infrastructures will be a
impediment inhibiting the ability of SADC countries and the international
relief community to implement a large-scale response to the drought
situation.


Lesotho

- The Prime Minister of Lesotho declared a national disaster on April 22.
This is the second consecutive year of poor maize and sorghum production
due to heavy rains and frost.

- According to an early May food security assessment by WFP and FAO,
long-term food security was aggravated by a 50 % decrease in the crop
harvest during the 2001-2002 season. Factors contributing to the drop in
agricultural production included: 1) significant early rains that delayed
the planting season and resulted in a 30-40% decrease in the total land
area planted; 2) late rains during the planting season; 3) periods of
frost during the growing season that affected crop development; and 4)
poor farming practices that reduced the availability of top soil and
depleted nutrients from the soil.


Malawi

- The President of Malawi declared a national disaster on February 27,
because of drought-related food shortages.  The most severely affected
regions of Malawi include parts of the Central, Southern, and Lakeshore
regions.

- According to the Government of Malawi (GOM), the total maize shortfall
for the 2002-2003 consumption year will reach 600,000 MT.

- According to WFP/FAO's initial food security assessment, the number of
Malawians at risk and in need of emergency food assistance will rise
incrementally between now and March 2003.  Preliminary estimates indicate
that between June and August, approximately 545,000 people will be at risk
and in need of emergency food assistance.  From September to December, the
number will rise to as many as 2.14 million people who will require more
than 150,000 MT of emergency food assistance. At risk populations are
expected to peak between December 2002 and March 2003, reaching an
estimated 3.2 million people who will require more than 42,000 MT of
emergency food assistance during the period.  In total, WFP/FAO estimate
that more than 208,000 MT of emergency food assistance will be required in
Malawi between May 2002 and March 2003.

- A joint USAID/FFP and USAID/OFDA assessment between March 12 and 18
concluded that the deterioration in the overall humanitarian situation
might result in a large-scale food crisis as early as September or October
2002.

- In response to the food security crisis that has resulted from the
drought, U.S. Ambassador Roger A. Meece declared a disaster for Malawi on
March 8.  USAID/OFDA provided $25,000 through USAID/Lilongwe, which was
combined with $37,000 in development funds, to enable Catholic Relief
Services (CRS) to divert 630 MT of Title II development food stocks to
support new supplemental feeding activities. Medicines Sans
Frontieres/Luxembourg (MSF/L), Save the Children/United States (SCF/US),
and CADECOM (local CARITAS)  are implementing the supplemental feeding
activities.

- According to UN OCHA, the cholera crisis that continues to affect Malawi
has been aggravated by malnutrition, resulting from the current food
shortage. The current crisis has claimed 1,000 lives and peaked in
February and March 2002 with 40,000 reported cases.  In response to the
cholera outbreak, USAID/OFDA provided $100,000 through USAID/Lilongwe to
the Malawian Red Cross to address the medical needs of those affected by
the outbreak.


Mozambique

- The Government of the Republic of Mozambique (GRM) reported that 50,000
to 60,000 families, or 250,000 to 300,000 people, are adversely affected
by the drought and will require emergency food assistance and crop seeds
the next six to seven months. An additional 70,000 families, or 350,000
people, have been identified as moderately affected and will need two to
four months of food assistance beginning in late 2002.

- USAID/Maputo reports that the areas most affected by the drought include
Inhambane, Gaza, Sofala, and Tete provinces.  Even in years with
significant rainfall, these areas are traditionally prone to drought.
However, pockets of food insecurity are developing in normally food secure
areas, such as coastal Nampula, where cassava disease is causing major
losses, and in the Zambezi River basin, where families displaced by last
year's floods remain vulnerable.

- According to FEWS NET, Mozambique's national production of cereals will
be 11% higher than last year. GRM estimates also indicate that the
northern part of the country will have an above average harvest, and
surpluses are expected to be exported to Malawi and Zimbabwe. These
exports have increased substantially in recent years and Mozambican
farmers are concerned about the impact of large, regional food aid
interventions on future markets.

- FEWS NET also reports that people in the densely populated coastal zones
of southern Mozambique and Maputo Province, have diversified their income
sources and are prepared to cope the limited production maize. FEWS NET
indicates that the food security situation is likely to become more
serious in the less populated interior regions, as households exhaust
their coping mechanisms.  The food security situation is expected to peak
between September and December, just before the primary season crop is
harvested.


Swaziland

- According to the Government of Swaziland (GOS), the dry spell between
December 2001 and January 2002 caused crop failures in much of the
country. Crop yields are projected to be even lower than last year's
reduced harvest.  The GOS estimates that up to 126,000 people are in need
of immediate food assistance.

- USAID/FFP reports that the expected maize deficit for coming year is
134,000 MT, of which SADC estimates that 40,000 MT will need to be met by
emergency food assistance.  In early 2002, the GOS purchased 50,000 MT of
maize from South Africa for distribution to the affected populations. This
imported maize is expected to be distributed and consumed by the end of
May 2002.

- USAID/FFP and USAID/OFDA conducted an assessment of the drought and food
shortage situation in Swaziland from April 22-25.  The assessment
indicated that the Lowveld area is the most severely impacted, with
portions of the Middleveld and Highveld areas, as well as the Lubombo
Plateau, also experiencing crop failures and food shortages.  The food
security situation in rural areas has been further exacerbated by steadily
deteriorating socio- economic conditions.

- In late 2001, the overall livestock population in Swaziland was
decimated by an outbreak of foot and mouth disease, which resulted in the
loss of approximately 168,000 cattle and greatly reduced the availability
of livestock resources as a household-level coping mechanism.  According
to the recent USAID assessment, severely affected households are coping by
reducing the number of meals consumed.

- The USAID assessment team also reported that low ground water tables are
limiting the availability of potable water for both residents and
livestock.


Zambia

- WFP reported that nearly 400,000 people in 19 districts located in the
Southern, Eastern, and Western provinces have been affected by
drought-related food insecurity. This total represents 20% of Zambia's
population of two million.

- USAID/FFP and USAID/OFDA conducted an initial assessment of the food
security crisis in Zambia from April 7- 13.  The team reported that the
number of residents in need is expected to dramatically increase by
September or October.

- The Government of Zambia has reported that the crop forecast for the
2001/2002 agricultural season is on-going, but initial reports are that
agricultural production will provide for slightly less than half of the
domestic maize requirements.

- In response to the food security situation, USDA contributed 15,000 MT
of Section 416 (b) food commodities valued at approximately $7,900,000.


Zimbabwe

- President Mugabe declared a disaster in Zimbabwe effective April 30 and
appealed for international assistance as a result of food insecurity
affecting communal lands, resettlement areas, and urban centers. The
Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) reports that 7.8 million people, 5 million of
whom are children, will require humanitarian assistance for the next 18
months.  According to FEWS NET, the vulnerable population requiring food
assistance in Zimbabwe will reach three million by June 2002, with as many
as five million people becoming food insecure before the next agricultural
harvest in March 2003.

- FEWS NET reported that this year's agricultural maize production,
estimated at less than 600,000 MT, is less than half of last year's output
of 1,476,230 MT, which was below the five year average. Domestic maize
production in 2002 will only one-quarter of Zimbabwe's national maize
consumption requirements.

- According to WFP and FAO, the current food security crisis in Zimbabwe
is aggravated by foreign exchange shortages that limit the GOZ's ability
to procure and import food commodities.

- Only a fraction of the total imported food requirements for Zimbabwe is
likely to be covered by emergency food assistance.  A large portion of the
food deficit could be covered through commercial imports for local sale.
However, the combination of GOZ restrictions on private sector imports of
maize, price controls, and the lack of access to foreign exchange is
severely constraining the capacity of the country to respond to the
crisis.

- The WFP/FAO assessment also indicated that several successive poor
harvests have exhausted traditional coping mechanisms such as selling
livestock, informal cross-border imports, and foraging of mopane worms.
The livestock situation is compounded by the reduction of livestock prices
and declining demand, which resulted from a 25% reduction in the size of
the national herd.

- According to the WFP/FAO assessment, the secondary impacts of the food
security crisis include: 1) the consumption of immature crops and next
year's seed stock; 2) increased school dropout rates due to hunger and
lack of resources to pay school fees; 3) reduced household consumption
with many families consuming only 1.5 meals per day; 4) reduced family
care as mothers spend increasing amounts of time searching for food; and,
5)  environmental degradation due to deforestation and animal poaching.

- In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 34,430 MT
of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $19,912,528,
through WFP and World Vision International (WVI) to support 633,000
beneficiaries. In addition, USDA contributed 10,000 MT of Section 416 (b)
commodities valued at approximately $5,300,000.


U.S. Government Response

- USAID/FFP and USDA have provided 102,780 MT of P.L 480 Title II and
Section 416 (b) emergency food commodities to the region, including 60,000
MT for Zambia and Zimbabwe. The remaining 35,330, valued at $16,373,000,
is being pre-positioned with WFP in the region for distribution in Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, as needed.

- USAID/FFP also plans to procure an additional 37,500 MT of emergency
food commodities, valued at approximately $15,000,000, for future use in
the region.


Public Donation Information

- In the interest of effective coordination of public response, USAID
encourages the public to contact directly those non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) currently working in the region in order to provide
monetary donations.  Cash donations are the preferred response to the
emergency.

- For a list of NGOs providing disaster assistance in the region, please
visit USAID's website at http://www.usaid.gov.  Those interested in
providing specific technical relief services or commodities can obtain
guidelines for private voluntary organizations through Volunteers in
Technical Assistance's (VITA's) Disaster Information Center at
http://www.vita.org.

- USAID will not deviate from standard Denton Program procedures for
transporting privately donated relief supplies.  USAID will prioritize
delivery of essential relief commodities.  For more information on the
Denton Program, please refer to the USAID website at
http://www.usaid.gov/hum_response/pvc/denton.html.

- For additional information about the relief effort in Southern Africa,
please refer to the Natural Disasters section of ReliefWeb at
http://www.reliefweb.int/

- For information about the changing food security situation in Southern
Africa, please refer to http://www.sadc- fanr.org.zw/ and
http://www.fews.net.



U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO SOUTHERN AFRICA


Agency
Implementing Partner
Sector
Regions
Amount


Malawi

USAID   $125,000
USAID/OFDA   $125,000


USAID/Lilongwe
Supplementary Feeding
$25,000


Malawian Red Cross
Health
$100,000

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO MALAWI   $125,000



Zambia

USDA	$7,900,000

WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 15,000 MT
$7,900,000

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO ZAMBIA   $7,900,000


Zimbabwe

USAID   $19,912,528
USAID/FFP   $19,912,528


WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 20,120 MT
$11,657,300


WVI
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 14,310 MT
$8,255,288



USDA   $5,300,000

WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 10,000 MT
$5,300,000

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO ZIMBABWE	$25,212,528


Regional Assistance Summary

USAID          $36,410,528
USAID/OFDA     $   125,000
USAID/FFP      $36,285,528



P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 35,330 (33,230?) MT prepositioned
  food commodities
$16,373,000


USDA   $13,200,000

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO SOUTHERN AFRICA DROUGHT
$49,610,528



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