U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - Complex Food Security Crisis
Situation Report # 4, Fiscal Year (FY) 2002    May 31, 2002


Note: This Situation Report updates Southern Africa Complex Food Security
Crisis Factsheet # 3 dated May 24, 2002.

BACKGROUND

Southern Africa is currently facing a regional food security crisis, due
mainly to adverse climate conditions for two consecutive growing seasons
in a number of countries, mismanagement of grain reserves in some
countries, and questionable government policies, primarily in Zimbabwe.
During the past production season, unusually dry conditions extended
across much of the region, from southern Zambia eastward to southern
Mozambique, resulting in crop failures and limited production.  Normally,
food stocks carried over from the previous year help offset production
shortfalls.  This year, however, regional stocks are exceptionally low, as
they were drawn down to fill the previous year's food shortages.
Zimbabwe is already on the verge of a serious food crisis, with large
numbers of people at risk. The potential for large-scale humanitarian
crises also exists in Malawi and Zambia. Poor and vulnerable households in
Mozambique, Swaziland, and Lesotho will also require humanitarian
assistance. Although final production estimates are still pending from
most countries, preliminary estimates from the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) indicate an overall maize deficit of 3.22
million metric tons (MT) within the SADC region.  The governments of
several countries in Southern Africa have declared national disasters due
to the food security crisis, including Malawi (February 27), Lesotho
(April 22), Zimbabwe (April 30), and Zambia (May 28).  Early reports
indicate that the crisis may be similar in magnitude to the 1995-1996
drought, which affected approximately six million people.  To date, the
U.S. Government (USG) has provided more than $52.2 million in emergency
humanitarian assistance in response to the food security crisis through
the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Office of
Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) and the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster
Assistance (USAID/OFDA), and the United States Department of Agriculture
(USDA).  The majority of the humanitarian assistance has been emergency
food relief provided by USAID/FFP.


NUMBERS AT A GLANCE

COUNTRY
   POPULATION REQUIRING EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE
   PERIOD
   SOURCE

LESOTHO
   444,800
   WFP/FAO

MALAWI(1)
   545,000
   JUNE-AUGUST
   WFP/FAO

   2,140,000
   SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER
   WFP/FAO

   3,200,000
   DECEMBER-MARCH
   WFP/FAO


MOZAMBIQUE(3)
   250,000-300,000
   6-7 MONTHS
   GRM

   350,000
   2-4 MONTHS BEGINNING IN LATE 2002
   GRM


SWAZILAND(2)
   126,000
   GOS


ZAMBIA(2)
   400,000
   WFP


ZIMBABWE(4)
   3,000,000
   JUNE 2002
   FEWS NET

   5,000,000
   MARCH 2003
   FEWS NET


1 Affected population figures for Malawi represent cumulative totals. The
period marks the time period in which additional populations are expected
to become vulnerable.

2 Affected population figures for these countries are estimates of the
total number of people in need of immediate food assistance as of May
2002.

3 Affected population figures for Mozambique are not cumulative and
represent different vulnerable populations. The period reflects the
expected duration of humanitarian assistance.

4 The FEWS NET estimate is reflects a cumulative total and the period
marks the point at which populations are expected to become vulnerable.

Total FY 2002 USG Humanitarian Assistance to Southern Africa	$52,230,652



CURRENT SITUATION

Regional. A major shipment of U.S.-donated relief food for the Southern
Africa region arrived in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on May 26.  The
U.S.-chartered vessel "Liberty Glory" carried the 33,230 MT of food
commodities, valued at $13.3 million.  The shipment included 16,940 MT of
maize, beans, and vegetable oil for Malawi, valued at $8.9 million, and
8,500 MT for Zambia, worth $2.9 million.  These commodities were quickly
off-loaded for onward transport to Malawi and Zambia via truck and rail.
The "Liberty Glory" is scheduled to arrive in Maputo, Mozambique on June
5-7 in order to deliver the remaining 9,890 MT of food, valued at $4.8
million, for use in Mozambique.  In addition, USAID/FFP is in the process
of procuring approximately 36,450 MT of additional emergency food
commodities, worth $16 million.

Joint U.N. World Food Program (WFP) and U.N. Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions, working with
SADC's Regional Early Warning Unit and USAID's Famine Early Warning System
(FEWS NET) have been recently completed in the six worst affected
countries in the region. USAID staff participated as observers in the
WFP/FAO assessments in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The
purpose of these assessments was to evaluate the 2001/2002 production
season, current stock levels, and import plans, in order to develop
detailed analyses of the food and non-food humanitarian assistance
requirements during the April 2002 to March 2003 consumption year.  On May
29, WFP and FAO released preliminary reports of their findings for
Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe.  Preliminary results from the
WFP/FAO assessments in Mozambique and Zambia are expected in the coming
weeks.  They report that at least 10 million people in these four
countries are threatened by potential famine and that figure is likely to
increase when the two other country assessments are completed.

The Toll of HIV/AIDS. High prevalence rates of HIV/AIDS in much of the
region leave large portions of the population increasingly vulnerable to
health problems associated with food shortages, including malnutrition. In
addition, those suffering from both malnutrition and HIV/AIDS are
increasingly susceptible to endemic diseases, such as cholera and malaria.
USAID's Africa Bureau (USAID/AFR) is supporting HIV/AIDS prevention,
control, care, and support initiatives, as well as programs for HIV/AIDS
orphans and vulnerable children, in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South
Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. They report that at least 10 million people
in these four countries are threatened by potential famine and that figure
is likely to increase when the two other country assessments are
completed. USAID/AFR also supports a regional HIV/AIDS program in Southern
Africa that focuses on cross border activities in the region.

Logistical Challenges.  The limited capacity of the region's governments
and the private sector to effectively utilize transport corridors and
logistics infrastructure could hamper the ability of SADC countries and
the international relief community to implement a large-scale response to
the food security situation.  WFP, the lead humanitarian logistics agency,
is conducting detailed surveys of the region's logistics corridors and
formulating recommendations for prioritizing cargo and utilizing the best
routes.

Lesotho. Preliminary estimates from the WFP/FAO Crop and Food Supply
Assessment Mission indicate that Lesotho's cereal production will be
74,000 MT, while total national consumption is estimated at 412,000 MT.
This results in an import requirement of 338,000 MT.  Commercial imports
are estimated at 191,000 MT, leaving a food aid requirement of 147,000 MT,
a large amount in proportion to the size of the country.  WFP/FAO estimate
that a total of 444,800 people throughout Lesotho will require emergency
food assistance.

Lesotho is experiencing a second consecutive year of poor maize and
sorghum production due to heavy rains and frost.  In addition, the
capacity of many households to cope with the production shortfall has
eroded due to a variety of factors, including livestock theft and a
decline in opportunities for wage labor such as agricultural work and
migrant labor in South Africa.

Malawi. Preliminary estimates from the WFP/FAO Crop and Food Supply
Assessment Mission indicate that cereal supply will be 1.7 million MT,
while the national cereal consumption requirement is estimated at 2.2
million MT. This results in an import requirement of 485,000 MT.
Commercial imports are forecast at 225,000 MT, leaving a food aid
requirement of 208,000 MT.

The most severely affected parts of Malawi include sections of the
Central, Southern, and Lakeshore regions. The U.N. Children's Fund
(UNICEF) estimates that 45,000 children in Malawi are currently facing
severe malnutrition. UNICEF expects the situation to further deteriorate
with the approach of the lean season, which will occur between January and
March 2003.

U.S. Ambassador Roger A. Meece declared a disaster for Malawi on March 8
due to the drought-related food security crisis.  In response, USAID/OFDA
provided $25,000 through USAID/Lilongwe, which was combined with $37,000
in development funds, to enable Catholic Relief Services (CRS) to divert
630 MT of P.L. 480 Title II development food stocks to support new
supplementary feeding activities. Medecins Sans Frontieres/Luxembourg
(MSF/L), Save the Children/United States (SCF/US), and CADECOM (local
CARITAS) are implementing the supplementary feeding activities. USAID/FFP
provided 16,490 MT of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued
at $8,900,600, which are now in route to Malawi.

According to UN OCHA, the cholera crisis that continues to affect Malawi
has been aggravated by malnutrition, resulting from the current food
shortage. The current crisis has claimed 1,000 lives.  In response to the
cholera outbreak, USAID/OFDA provided $100,000 through USAID/Lilongwe to
the Malawian Red Cross to address the medical needs of those affected by
the outbreak.

Mozambique.  The Government of the Republic of Mozambique estimates that
the northern part of the country will have an above average harvest and
surpluses are expected to be exported to neighboring Malawi and Zimbabwe.
However, southern areas of the country, including Inhambane, Gaza, Sofala,
and Tete provinces, have been adversely affected by drought.  Pockets of
food insecurity are developing in normally food secure areas, such as
coastal Nampula Province, where cassava disease is causing major losses,
and the Zambezi River basin, where families displaced by last year's
floods remain vulnerable. FEWS NET expects food insecurity to be highest
between September and December, just before the primary season crop is
harvested.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 9,890 MT of
P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $4,791,300, which
are currently in route to Mozambique.

Swaziland.  According to the Government of Swaziland, the dry spell
between December 2001 and January 2002 caused crop failures in much of the
country. Crop yields are projected to be even lower than last year's
reduced harvest.  USAID/FFP reports that the expected maize deficit for
the coming year is 134,000 MT. SADC estimates that 40,000 MT of this
deficit will need to be met by emergency food assistance.  USAID/FFP and
USAID/OFDA conducted an assessment of the drought and food shortage
situation in Swaziland from April 22-25. The assessment indicated that the
Lowveld area is the most severely impacted, with the Lubombo Plateau and
portions of the Middleveld and Highveld areas are also experiencing crop
failures and food shortages. The food security situation in rural areas
has been further exacerbated by steadily deteriorating socio-economic
conditions.

Zambia. Preliminary estimates from the WFP/FAO Crop and Food Supply
Assessment Mission released on May 29 indicate that Zambia's cereal
production will be between 620,000 MT and 710,000 MT, which would result
in a domestic cereal deficit between 378,000 MT and 468,000 MT.  This
would meet 57- 65% of the country's domestic maize requirements.  In
addition, WFP and FAO estimate that the number of people affected by
drought-related food insecurity may reach 1.7 to 2 million people.

On May 28, Zambian President Mwanawasa declared a food security disaster
for Zambia.  The President appealed to the international community for
humanitarian assistance to help Zambia feed its people during the crisis.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 8,500 MT of
P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $2,966,100, which
are now in route to Zambia.  In addition, USDA contributed 15,000 MT of
Section 416 (b) food commodities valued at $7,900,000.

Zimbabwe.  Based on the findings of their recently conducted Crop and Food
Supply Assessment Mission, WFP and FAO warn that Zimbabwe is facing a
serious food security crisis and that humanitarian assistance is urgently
needed to avert famine.  Preliminary estimates from the WFP/FAO assessment
indicate that Zimbabwe's cereal production is 670,000 MT, 57% down from
last year's poor harvest and 69% down from production in 1999/2000.
WFP/FAO estimate that six million Zimbabweans are vulnerable to food
insecurity and will require 705,000 MT of emergency food assistance in the
coming months.

FEWS NET reports that food prices normally drop at this time of year as
the harvest reaches the market.  While prices had initially dropped in
some areas, according to FEWS NET, an increasing number of people are
being priced out of the food market as staple food prices begin to rise.
On the parallel market, the maize grain price has increased from ZW$36/kg
to ZW$50/kg during the past seven days; while maize meal is selling at ZW$
60 to ZW$75/kg on the same market, compared to controlled price of
ZW$24/kg.  FEWS NET also reports that many poor households will therefore
have difficulty purchasing food, even if it is available in local markets.
FEWS NET estimates that between 4.5 and 6.7 million people-which is a
third to half of the country's population-will require food assistance
during the current consumption year.

An independent inquiry by the Danish group, Physicians for Human Rights,
accuses supporters of President Mugabe of denying urgently needed food to
tens of thousands of people in drought-stricken areas because they backed
the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in recent elections.
In April, WFP suspended distribution at one of their feeding centers where
it was reported that food was being distributed only to supporters of the
ruling party ZANU-PF.  Distribution remains suspended until the situation
can be resolved.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 34,430 MT
of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $22,589,600,
through WFP and World Vision International (WVI) to support 633,000
beneficiaries. In addition, USDA contributed 8,5000 MT of Section 416 (b)
food commodities valued at approximately $4,958,052.



USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

To date, the USG has provided more than $52.2 million in emergency
humanitarian assistance in response to the food security crisis, including
96,260 MT of P.L 480 Title II and Section 416 (b) emergency food
commodities.  In addition, USAID/FFP also plans to procure an additional
36,450 MT of emergency food commodities, valued at approximately $16
million, for future use in the region.

In addition to these contributions, USAID/FFP, USAID/OFDA, and FEWS NET
are actively monitoring the development of the food security crisis
through regular USAID field assessments and participation in wider
assessments conducted by the international humanitarian community.


U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO SOUTHERN AFRICA

Agency
Implementing Partner
Sector
Regions
Amount


Malawi

USAID   $9,025,600
USAID/OFDA   $125,000


USAID/Lilongwe
Supplementary Feeding
$25,000


Malawian Red Cross
Health
$100,000

USAID/FFP   $8,900,600


WFP
P.L. 480 Title Ii Food Assistance - 16,940 MT
$8,900,600

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO MALAWI   $9,025,600

Mozambique
USAID	$4,791,300
USAID/FFP	$4,791,300


WFP
P.L. 480 Title Ii Food Assistance - 9,890 MT
$4,791,300

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO Mozambique   $4,791,300



Zambia

USAID   $2,966,100
USAID/FFP   $2,966,100

WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 8,500 MT
$2,966,100


USDA   $7,900,000

WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance -15,000 MT
$7,900,000

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Zambia   $10,866,100



Zimbabwe
USAID   $22,589,600
USAID/FFP   $22,589,600


WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 20,120 MT
$13,241,600

WVI
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 14,310 MT
$9,348,000

USDA   $4,958,052


WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance -8,500 MT
$4,958,052

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Zimbabwe   $27,547,650

Regional Assistance Summary
USAID       $39,372,600
USAID/OFDA  $   125,000
USAID/FFP   $39,247,600
USDA        $12,858,052

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Southern Africa Crisis
$52,230,652



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