U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - Complex Food Security Crisis
Situation Report # 5, Fiscal Year (FY) 2002    June 7, 2002


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Note: This Situation Report updates Southern Africa Complex Food Security
Crisis Situation Report # 4 dated May 31, 2002.


BACKGROUND

Southern Africa is currently facing a regional food security crisis, due
to a combination of adverse climate conditions for two consecutive growing
seasons in a number of countries, mismanagement of grain reserves in some
countries, and questionable government policies, primarily in Zimbabwe.
During the past production season, unusually dry conditions extended
across much of the region, from southern Zambia eastward to southern
Mozambique, resulting in crop failures and limited production in many
areas.  Normally, food stocks carried over from the previous year help
offset production shortfalls.  This year, however, regional stocks are
exceptionally low, as they were drawn down to fill the previous year's
food shortages.  Zimbabwe is on the verge of a serious food crisis, with
almost half the population at risk. The potential for humanitarian food
crises also exists in Malawi and Zambia. Poor and vulnerable households in
Mozambique, Swaziland, and Lesotho will also require humanitarian
assistance.  Although final production estimates are still pending from
most countries, preliminary estimates from the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) indicate an overall maize deficit of 3.22
million metric tons (MT) within the SADC region.  The governments of
several countries in Southern Africa have declared national disasters due
to actual and anticipated food shortages, including Malawi (February 27),
Lesotho (April 22), Zimbabwe (April 30), and Zambia (May 28).  Early
reports indicate that the crisis may be similar in magnitude to the
1995-1996 drought, which affected approximately six million people.  To
date, the U.S. Government (USG) has provided almost $52.7 million in
emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the food security crisis
through the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID)
Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) and the Office of U.S. Foreign
Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), and the United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).  The majority of the humanitarian assistance has been
emergency food relief provided by USAID/FFP.

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE

NUMBERS AFFECTED

COUNTRY
POPULATION REQUIRING EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE DURING 2002/2003

LESOTHO         444,800
MALAWI        3,200,000
MOZAMBIQUE      515,000
SWAZILAND       144,000
ZAMBIA        1,700,000
ZIMBABWE      6,070,000

Sources.  For Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe, the
source is the WFP and FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions.  For
Zambia, the source is the USAID/FFP and USAID/OFDA assessment to Zambia in
May 2002.

Note that these figures are cumulative figures for the number of people
who will require emergency food assistance during the course of the April
2002 to March 2003 consumption year.  Not all the affected people require
immediate assistance nor will they necessarily require assistance
throughout the year.



FOOD NEEDS IN AFFECTED COUNTRIES

Annual Corn  Production     Deficit (MT)  Estimated     Estimated
(or Cereal)  Forecast (MT)                Commercial    Humanitarian Need
Needs(1)                                  Imports (MT)  (MT)

Zimbabwe (corn)
  2,185,000     480,000      1,705,000      360,000      1,345,000
Malawi (corn)
  2,206,000   1,721,000        485,000      225,000        208,000
Zambia (corn)
  1,250,000     620,000        630,000      480,000        150,000
Lesotho (cereal)
    412,000      74,000        338,000      191,000        147,000
Mozambique (corn)
  1,400,000   1,240,000        120,000       70,000         50,000
Swaziland (cereal)
    188,000      77,000        111,000       96,000         15,000

(1) Note that where possible, USAID will use figures for corn (maize).
If figures on corn are not available, USAID will use figures for cereals.
All figures are in MT.

Sources:  For Zimbabwe, Malawi, Swaziland, and Lesotho, the source is the
WFP and FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment reports released on May 29,
2002.  For Mozambique, the source is the WFP/FAO Food Supply and Crop
Assessment report released on June 4, 2002.  For Zambia, the source is
USAID/FFP.

Total FY 2002 USG Humanitarian Assistance to Southern Africa $52,667,388



CURRENT SITUATION

Regional.  Joint U.N. World Food Program (WFP) and U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions,
working with SADC's Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources Office and
USAID's Famine Early Warning System (FEWS NET) have been recently
completed in the six worst affected countries in the region. USAID staff
participated as observers in the WFP/FAO assessments in Malawi,
Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The purpose of these missions was to
assess the 2001/2002 production season, estimate the level of existing
food stocks, review the overall supply situation, and develop a national
food balance sheet indicating the magnitude of the food gap.  The
assessment also provided preliminary estimates of the number of people who
will require food assistance, where they are located, and the likely
timing and magnitude of food aid requirements during the April 2002 to
March 2003 consumption year.

On June 4, WFP and FAO released the preliminary results of their joint
Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Mozambique, in which USAID
staff participated. WFP and FAO released theresults of the assessments in
Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe.  The results of the
Zambia assessment are expected in the coming weeks. The assessments reveal
that at least 10 million people in these countries are threatened by
potential food insecurity.  WFP and FAO reported that the most severely
affected countries are Zimbabwe and Malawi, where almost six million and
3.2 million people, respectively, will face food shortages in the course
of the coming year.  According to WFP and FAO, nearly 4 million MT of
emergency food assistance will need to be imported during the next year to
meet the minimum food needs of the region's population. WFP and FAO also
indicated that of this total, at least 1.2 million MT are needed
immediately.

Although the recent April-June harvests are expected to provide short-term
relief for some households, many vulnerable households will continue to
require emergency assistance.  Significant increases in the price of maize
have undermined access to food for large segments of the population within
the region.  The food security situation in the second half of 2002 and
into early 2003 is expected to significantly worsen in the region.

The Toll of HIV/AIDS.  High rates of HIV/AIDS in much of the region leave
large portions of the population increasingly vulnerable to health
problems associated with food shortages, including malnutrition and
endemic diseases, such as cholera and malaria.  In addition, the increased
incidence of HIV/AIDS in rural communities has two pronounced effects. The
first is reduced income because sick members of the household are unable
to perform agricultural or wage labor.  The second is the additional cost
burden of caring for the sick and paying for funerals and other obligatory
expenses.  The net effect is that households have even less income and
fewer capable household members to produce food or generate income with
which to buy food

In response to the ongoing HIV/AID pandemic in the Southern Africa region,
USAID's Africa Bureau (USAID/AFR) is supporting HIV/AIDS prevention,
control, care, and support initiatives, as well as programs for HIV/AIDS
orphans and vulnerable children, in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South
Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. USAID/AFR also supports a regional HIV/AIDS
program in Southern Africa that focuses on cross-border activities in the
region.

Logistical Challenges.  The limited capacity of the region's governments
and the private sector to effectively utilize transport corridors and
logistics infrastructure could hamper the ability of SADC countries and
the international relief community to implement a large-scale response to
the food security situation.  WFP, the lead humanitarian food aid
logistics agency, and other partners including the USG are conducting
detailed surveys of the region's logistics corridors and formulating
recommendations for prioritizing cargo and utilizing the best routes.

Lesotho. The major causes of the current food security crisis in Lesotho
include poor cereal crop production due to two years of drought followed
by unseasonably heavy rains at the beginning of the growing season.
Hailstorms, pest infestations, and poor soil management also negatively
affected agricultural production. This is the third consecutive year of
reduced harvests. WFP and FAO estimated that a total of 444,800 people
throughout Lesotho would require emergency food assistance.

Malawi. The primary cause of the current food security crisis in Malawi is
low production during the 2001/2002 growing season, which followed a
mediocre 2000/2001 harvest. The most severely affected parts of Malawi
include sections of the central, southern, and Lakeshore regions; where a
mid-season dry spell reduced corn yields.  Corn grain availability was
also lower due to early harvesting of green corn for immediate
consumption.  Another important cause of the crisis is the lack of grain
reserves to draw upon; between August 2000 and August 2001 the Government
of Malawi sold 167,000 MT of the corn reserves.  WFP and FAO estimated
that up to 3.2 million people would be affected by food shortages by the
end of the coming year.

U.S. Ambassador Roger A. Meece declared a disaster for Malawi on March 8
due to the drought-related food security crisis.  In response, USAID/OFDA
provided $25,000 through USAID/Lilongwe, which was combined with $37,000
in development funds, to enable Catholic Relief Services (CRS) to divert
630 MT of P.L. 480 Title II development food stocks to support new
supplementary feeding activities. Medecins Sans Frontieres/Luxembourg
(MSF/L), Save the Children/United States (SCF/US), and CADECOM (local
CARITAS) are implementing the supplementary feeding activities.  In
addition, USAID/OFDA provided $100,000 through USAID/Lilongwe to the
Malawian Red Cross to address the medical needs of those affected by a
cholera outbreak that was aggravated by malnutrition resulting from
current food shortages.

USAID/FFP provided 16,490 MT of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food
commodities, valued at $8,900,600, which are now in route to Malawi.
USDA contributed 3,000 MT of Section 416(b) emergency food commodities,
valued at approximately $1,243,382.

Mozambique.  The causes of the current food security crisis in Mozambique
include a drought, which has reduced the 2002 harvest in the southern
region of the country, and flooding in 2000,whichcaused widespread
devastation and the loss of household assets, leaving the population of
the south extremely vulnerable.  Total crop failure this year is reported
in many parts of the south and partial crop loss in areas of central
Mozambique.  In the north, Mozambique has an exportable surplus, which is
estimated to be 100,000 MT.  However, with poor infrastructure, including
no viable transport route across the Zambezi River, the surplus production
from Northern Mozambique cannot easily be moved to deficit areas in the
South.  Instead, it will be exported to Malawi, which is a traditional
practice in the region.  WFP and FAO report that approximately 515,000
people are expected to be affected by the food shortages.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 9,890 MT of
P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $4,791,300, which
are currently in route to Mozambique.

Swaziland.  The major causes of the current food security crisis in
Swaziland include a poor 2001/2002 cereal harvest resulting from a
mid-season dry spell at the critical maturing stage, two previous years of
reduced harvests, low levels of grain reserves, and inadequate imports.
Crop levels have also been affected by the lack of an effective policy for
the optimal use of land.  In addition, family income has been negatively
affected by the high incidence rates of HIV/AIDS among wage earners, as
well as from reduced employment opportunities in South Africa.  According
to WFP and FAO, approximately 144,000 people in Lowveld, Middleveld, and
Lubombo Plateau will need emergency food assistance.  However, WFP and FAO
caution that the needed duration for food assistance will vary among
vulnerable groups, therefore, careful food aid targeting and phasing is
required.

Zambia. The primary cause of the current food security crisis is low
production from the recently completed (2001/2002) growing season, due to
drought in the Southern and Eastern portion of the country, which followed
a poor corn harvest last year (2000/2001).  Two years of poor harvests,
and a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, have caused the traditional coping
mechanisms of the Zambian extended family to become overwhelmed.
According to USAID/FFP and USAID/FFP estimates, Zambia will produce
620,000 MT of corn, while the annual corn consumption needs are 1,260,000
MT. This leaves a corn deficit of 630,000 MT.  Commercial imports of corn
are estimated to be 480,000 MT, which results in a humanitarian need of
150,000 MT.  Based on the findings of their assessment in Zambia,
conducted in May, USAID/FFP and USAID/OFDA estimated that 1.7 to 2 million
rural people will be unable to meet their food needs during the coming
months.  Currently, Zambia does not have a grain reserve, although
legislation is in place authorizing a three-month reserve.

USAID/FFP and USAID/OFDA also report that international agencies predict
the onset of the "hungry"  season in Zambia, which typically occurs
shortly before the annual corn crop is harvested beginning in March/April,
will occur this year as early as August, as more and more households face
complete depletion of their food stocks.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 8,500 MT of
P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $2,966,100, which
are now in route to Zambia.  In addition, USDA contributed 15,000 MT of
Section 416 (b) food commodities, valued at $7,093,354.

Zimbabwe.  In Zimbabwe, a combination of factors, including drought, price
controls, foreign exchange restrictions, and the government's
expropriation of land from commercial farms have contributed to the food
security crisis. In the southern section of Zimbabwe, which is not where
the bulk of Zimbabwe's food is grown, there have now been three
consecutive years of low rainfall, resulting in reduced crop production or
total crop failure.  In addition, high rates of HIV/AIDS have exacerbated
the effects of the drought by both reducing the income a family brings in,
and by increasing the costs to the household.  According to WFP and FAO,
approximately 6 million people in Zimbabwe are expected to be affected by
the food shortages; this is almost half of the population.

FEWS NET reported that food prices normally drop at this time of year as
the harvest reaches the market.  While prices had initially dropped in
some areas, according to FEWS NET, an increasing number of people are
being priced out of the food market as staple food prices begin to rise.

In addition, FEWS NET reported that cattle and goat prices continue to
decline relative to those of maize grain in southern Zimbabwe. For
example, in the Zambezi valley areas of Mount Darwin District, income from
a sale of one goat was sufficient to buy over 100kg of maize last June,
compared to 54kg of maize at this time.  This means that the rural
households in the southern part of Masvingo Province and most of
Matebeleland South and North Provinces—which depend on livestock income
for their livelihoods—will find it increasingly difficult to purchase
maize grain when it is available on the market.

There have been reports of instances of food distributions being
politicized.  WFP is investigating reports in three districts that the
beneficiary registration process was influenced by party affiliation.
WFP has suspended the distributions in those districts until the situation
is resolved.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 34,430 MT
of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $22,589,600,
through WFP and World Vision International (WVI) to support 633,000
beneficiaries. In addition, USDA contributed 8,500 MT of Section 416 (b)
food commodities valued at approximately $4,958,052.


USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Since the beginning of 2002, the USG has provided almost $52.7 million in
emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the food security crisis,
including 96,260 MT of P.L 480 Title II and Section 416 (b) emergency food
commodities.  In addition, USAID/FFP is in the process of procuring an
additional 36,450 MT of emergency food commodities, valued at
approximately $16 million, for future use in the region.

In addition to these contributions, USAID/FFP, USAID/OFDA, and FEWS NET
are actively monitoring the development of the food security crisis
through regular USAID field assessments and participation in wider
assessments conducted by the international humanitarian community.



U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO SOUTHERN AFRICA

Agency
Implementing Partner
Sector
Regions
Amount

Malawi
USAID        $9,025,600
USAID/OFDA   $  125,000


USAID/Lilongwe
Supplementary Feeding
$25,000

Malawian Red Cross
Health
$100,000

USAID/FFP   $8,900,600



WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 16,940 MT
$8,900,600

USDA   $1,243,382


WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 3,000 MT
$1,243,382

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO MALAWI   $10,268,982



Mozambique
USAID       $4,791,300
USAID/FFP   $4,791,300


WFP
P.L. 480 Title Ii Food Assistance - 9,890 MT
$4,791,300

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO Mozambique	$4,791,300


Zambia
USAID       $2,966,100
USAID/FFP   $2,966,100

WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance – 8,500 MT
$2,966,100

USDA	$7,093,354


WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 15,000 MT
$7,093,354

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Zambia	$10,059,454


Zimbabwe
USAID       $22,589,600
USAID/FFP   $22,589,600


WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 20,120 MT
$13,241,600

WVI
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 14,310 MT
$9,348,000

USDA   $4,958,052


WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 8,500 MT
$4,958,052

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Zimbabwe   $27,547,652

Regional Assistance Summary
USAID       $39,372,600
USAID/OFDA  $   125,000
USAID/FFP   $39,247,600
USDA        $13,294,788

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Southern Africa Crisis   $52,667,388


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