U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - Complex Food Security Crisis
Situation Report # 6, Fiscal Year (FY) 2002    June 14, 2002


Note: This Situation Report updates Southern Africa Complex Food Security
Crisis Situation Report # 5 dated June 7, 2002.

BACKGROUND

Southern Africa is currently facing a regional food security crisis, due
to a combination of adverse climate conditions for two consecutive growing
seasons in a number of countries, mismanagement of grain reserves in some
countries, and questionable government policies, primarily in Zimbabwe.
During the past production season, unusually dry conditions extended
across much of the region, from southern Zambia eastward to southern
Mozambique, resulting in crop failures and limited production in many
areas.  Normally, food stocks carried over from the previous year help
offset production shortfalls.  This year, however, regional stocks are
exceptionally low, as they were drawn down to fill the previous year's
food shortages.  Zimbabwe is on the verge of a serious food crisis, with
almost half the population at risk. The potential for humanitarian food
crises also exists in Malawi and Zambia. Poor and vulnerable households in
Mozambique, Swaziland, and Lesotho will also require humanitarian
assistance.  The governments of several countries in Southern Africa have
declared national disasters due to actual and anticipated food shortages,
including Malawi (February 27), Lesotho (April 22), Zimbabwe (April 30),
and Zambia (May 28).  Since the beginning of 2002, the U.S.  Government
(USG) has provided almost $52.7 million in emergency humanitarian
assistance in response to the food security crisis through the United
States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Office of Food for
Peace (USAID/FFP) and the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance
(USAID/OFDA), and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The majority of the humanitarian assistance has been emergency food relief
provided by USAID/FFP.

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE

POPULATIONS REQUIRING EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE     FOOD NEEDS

Country    Immediate (Jun -    by March 2003        Estimated Uncoverd
           Aug 2002)           (Dec - Mar 2003)     Corn Deficit (MT)


LESOTHO          80,400             444,800              116,500
MALAWI          545,000           3,200,000              208,000
MOZAMBIQUE      355,000             515,000               50,000
SWAZILAND       144,000             231,000               15,200
ZAMBIA        1,300,000           2,300,000              275,000
ZIMBABWE      5,300,000           6,100,000            1,405,000
TOTAL         7,700,000          12,800,000            2,069,700

Source.  The WFP and FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions.

Total FY 2002 USG Humanitarian Assistance to Southern Africa
$52,667,388




CURRENT SITUATION

Regional.

The most recent figures from the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) and the
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicate that 7.7 million
people are now threatened by starvation in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique,
Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, and that this figure will likely rise to
12.8 million by the end of the April 2002-March 2003 consumption year.
WFP is currently feeding millions of people in the region. In the last few
weeks, WFP's caseload doubled from 2.3 million to 4.6 million people.
The sharpest expansion is in Malawi, from 260,000 beneficiaries up to 2.1
million.  WFP and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (UN OCHA) co-hosted a regional consultation on Humanitarian Needs
in Southern Africa in Johannesburg, South Africa, on June 6 and 7.
Government representatives (donors and recipients), U.N.  agencies,
non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the Southern Africa Development
Committee (SADC), and USAID's Famine Early Warning Network (FEWS NET)
participated in the meeting.  The purpose of the meeting was to review
findings of country-specific WFP/FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessments
conducted throughout the region in April and May and reach consensus on
both the magnitude of the crisis and the required scale of the
humanitarian response, both food and non-food assistance.

The meeting underscored the urgency of mounting an immediate response to
ensure adequate availability of food in the affected region from now
through March 2003.  In addition, emphasis was placed on the need to
complement food aid with substantial non-food assistance to address
associated vulnerability in the areas of health/nutrition, water and
sanitation, and agricultural recovery.

According to WFP and FAO, the six affected countries have a gross cereal
production shortfall of approximately 3.45 million MT.  Of this total, the
U.N. estimates that approximately 1.2 million MT of cereal will need to be
supplied in the form of emergency food aid, while the balance of more than
2 million MT will be supplied through commercial or other imports for sale
in local markets.

WFP is now preparing its regional emergency operation (EMOP) in response
to the crisis, which is expected to be released on June 18 and will start
July 1 for a duration of nine months.  WFP is planning to ask donors for
$350 to $400 million to try to avert potential famine in Southern Africa.
WFP's goal is to reach some 12.8 million people with approximately 1.6
million MT of food aid comprised of cereals and complementary food
commodities.  The population in need will increase dramatically in the
months to come, when the meager yield of this year's harvest is consumed.
Currently, an estimated 7.7 million people need assistance.  This will
increase to 11.2 million in September to November, and peak at 12.8
million for the period December to March.

WFP's response strategy will rely on careful targeting of the most
vulnerable populations affected, including households headed by children,
females and elderly people; people living with HIV/AIDS; and young
children. WFP has established a Management Coordination Unit for the
upcoming regional appeal.  WFP staff is already operational in the office
in Johannesburg.

On June 10, the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture formally announced at the
World Food Summit in Rome the release of 275,000 MT of wheat from the
Emerson Trust.  The wheat will be exchanged for an equal value of corn,
beans, and vegetable oil (approximately 190,000 MT)  and used to provide
emergency food assistance to Southern Africa.  The Emerson Trust is a food
reserve administered under the authority of the Secretary of Agriculture,
who is authorized to release food from the reserve for urgent,
unanticipated humanitarian relief.  While the Trust is held in wheat, the
1998 Africa Seeds of Hope Act allows the Secretary of Agriculture to swap
wheat for commodities of equal value.

Underlying Vulnerabilities: HIV/AIDS and Chronic Malnutrition.  High rates
of HIV/AIDS in much of the region leave large portions of the population
increasingly vulnerable to health problems associated with food shortages,
including malnutrition and endemic diseases, such as cholera and malaria.
The high rates of HIV/AIDS also exacerbate the effects of the drought
because households have even fewer capable members to produce food or
generate income with which to buy food.

In response to the ongoing HIV/AID pandemic in the Southern Africa region,
USAID's Africa Bureau (USAID/AFR) is supporting HIV/AIDS prevention,
control, care, and support initiatives, as well as programs for HIV/AIDS
orphans and vulnerable children, in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South
Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. USAID/AFR also supports a regional HIV/AIDS
program in Southern Africa that focuses on cross-border activities in the
region.

Chronic malnutrition also creates an underlying vulnerability to the
current food crisis.  According to the U.N. Children's Fund (UNICEF),
chronic malnutrition has resulted in stunting, which is inadequate height
for age, among a high percentage of children under five in the Southern
Africa region: 27% of children under five in Zimbabwe are stunted, 30% in
Swaziland, 36% in Mozambique, 44% in Lesotho, 49% in Malawi, and 59% in
Zambia.

Logistical Challenges.  The limited capacity of the Southern Africa
region's infrastructure could hamper the ability of SADC countries and the
international relief community to implement a large-scale response to the
food security situation.  WFP is working with other partners, including
the USG, to formulate recommendations for prioritizing cargo and utilizing
the best routes.

According to WFP, the movement of humanitarian cargo in Southern Africa
will rely heavily on the Mozambique ports of Beira, Nacala, and Maputo, as
these ports serve neighboring Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi.  In
particular, heavy reliance will be placed on the port of Beira because of
its considerable capacity, and the availability of dual modes of inland
haulage – road and rail.  In general, port capacity in Mozambique may
exceed overland transport capacity, which could cause congestion to occur
in the rail system.  In order to avoid this, the ports of Durban in South
Africa and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania will also be used to bring
commodities to Malawi and Zambia. WFP reported that it would carry out a
logistics capacity assessment of other ports in the region, such as Walvis
Bay in Namibia, within the next two weeks.

Lesotho. The major causes of the current food security crisis in Lesotho
include poor cereal crop production due to drought, unseasonable heavy
rains, hailstorms, pest infestations, and poor soil management. WFP and
FAO estimate that a total of 444,800 people throughout Lesotho will
require emergency food assistance anticipate a food aid requirement of
50,000 MT.

Malawi. The primary cause of the current food security crisis in Malawi is
low production during the 2001/2002 growing season, which followed a
mediocre 2000/2001 harvest.  Another important cause of the crisis is poor
government management.  WFP and FAO estimate that up to 3.2 million people
will be affected by food shortages by the end of the coming year and
anticipate a food aid requirement of 208,000 MT.

U.S. Ambassador Roger A. Meece declared a disaster for Malawi on March 8
due to the drought-related food security crisis.  In response, USAID/OFDA
provided $25,000 through USAID/Lilongwe, which was combined with $37,000
in development funds, to enable Catholic Relief Services (CRS) to divert
630 MT of P.L. 480 Title II development food stocks to support new
supplementary feeding activities. Medecins Sans Frontieres/Luxembourg
(MSF/L), Save the Children/United States (SCF/US), and CADECOM (local
CARITAS) are implementing the supplementary feeding activities.  In
addition, USAID/OFDA provided $100,000 through USAID/Lilongwe to the
Malawian Red Cross to address the medical needs of those affected by a
cholera outbreak that was aggravated by malnutrition resulting from
current food shortages.

USAID/FFP provided 16,490 MT of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food
commodities, valued at $8,900,600.  USDA contributed 3,000 MT of Section
416(b)  emergency food commodities, valued at approximately $1,243,382.

Mozambique.  The causes of the current food security crisis in Mozambique
include a drought this year and devastating floods in 2000.  Total crop
failure this year is reported in many parts of the south and partial crop
loss in areas of central Mozambique.  In the north, Mozambique has an
exportable surplus, which is estimated to be more than 100,000 MT.
However, with poor infrastructure, including no viable transport route
across the Zambezi River, the surplus production from northern Mozambique
cannot easily be moved to deficit areas in the south.  Instead, it will be
exported to Malawi, which is a traditional practice in the region.  WFP
and FAO report that approximately 515,000 people will be affected by food
shortages during the coming year and anticipate a food aid requirement of
62,000 MT.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 9,890 MT of
P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $4,791,300.

Swaziland.  The major causes of the current food security crisis in
Swaziland include a poor 2001/2002 cereal harvest resulting from a
mid-season dry spell at the critical maturing stage, two previous years of
reduced harvests, low levels of grain reserves, and inadequate imports.
According to WFP and FAO, approximately 231,000 people in Swaziland will
need emergency food assistance during the coming year, and the cereal food
aid requirement is expected to be 12,000 MT.

Zambia. The primary cause of the current food security crisis is low
production from the recently completed (2001/2002) growing season, due to
drought in the southern and eastern portion of the country, which followed
a poor corn harvest last year (2000/2001).  Two years of poor harvests,
plus a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, have caused the traditional coping
mechanisms of the Zambian extended family to become overwhelmed. In
addition, according to USAID/Lusaka, approximately 70% of the Zambian
population lives below the poverty line. Many of these households have
exhausted traditional coping mechanisms, such as liquidating household
assets, including livestock.  According to WFP and FAO, approximately 2.3
million people in Zambia will need emergency food assistance this year and
the food aid requirement is estimated at 174,000 MT.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 8,500 MT of
P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $2,966,100.  In
addition, USDA contributed 15,000 MT of Section 416 (b) food commodities,
valued at $7,093,354.

Zimbabwe.  In Zimbabwe, a combination of factors, including drought, price
controls, foreign exchange restrictions, and the government's
expropriation of land from commercial farms have contributed to the food
security crisis.  WFP and FAO expect that by December 2002, 6.1 million
people in Zimbabwe will need emergency food aid:  4.4 million people in
communal and resettled rural areas, 850,000 urban residents, and 825,000
farm workers.  WFP anticipates a food aid requirement in Zimbabwe of
705,000 MT.  Zimbabwe thus accounts for 48 percent of the region's total
population in need of food aid and 56 percent of the total estimated
emergency food aid requirement.

Instances of the political uses of food in Zimbabwe have been alleged,
including credible reports from non- governmental organizations (NGOs)
that opposition party members have been prevented from buying corn from
the government-run Grain Marketing Board, and that jobs in public works
programs have been reserved for government supporters. In addition, the
children of opposition party members have been driven away from school
supplementary feeding programs in rural areas.  The reported political
uses of food have been limited to food distributed under government
control.  USAID is working exclusively through international organizations
and NGOs in Zimbabwe, which have in place systems to minimize the
potential for politicization of food aid distribution.

In response to the food security situation, USAID/FFP provided 34,430 MT
of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food commodities, valued at $22,589,600,
through WFP and World Vision International (WVI) to support 633,000
beneficiaries. In addition, USDA contributed 8,500 MT of Section 416 (b)
food commodities valued at $4,958,052.



USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Since the beginning of 2002, the USG has provided almost $52.7 million in
emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the food security crisis,
including 96,260 MT of P.L 480 Title II and Section 416 (b) emergency food
commodities.  In addition, USAID/FFP has procured an additional 36,450 MT
of emergency food commodities, valued at approximately $16 million, due to
arrive in the region at the end of July.

USAID/FFP, USAID/OFDA, and FEWS NET continue to actively monitor the
development of the food security crisis through regular USAID field
assessments and participation in wider assessments conducted by the
international humanitarian community.  In June and July, USAID/OFDA will
be carrying out technical assessment missions to Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi,
and Mozambique to more thoroughly assess the humanitarian needs in these
countries.

To help prevent increases in malnutrition in Southern Africa, the USG is
recommending a general food aid targeting approach to help meet the needs
of specific categories of vulnerable groups.  These categories include: 1)
those with specialized needs, such as children under five, orphans,
households affected by HIV/AIDS, and the elderly; 2) those with needs
within the worst drought-affected areas, particularly rural households
whose livelihoods have been most affected by drought and/or policy-induced
shocks; and 3) those individuals in rural and urban households, including
those affected by HIV/AIDS, whose extremely low incomes place them at the
highest risk of severe under-consumption because of inadequate purchasing
power.


U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO SOUTHERN AFRICA

Agency
Implementing Partner
Sector
Regions
Amount

Malawi

USAID        $9,025,600
USAID/OFDA     $125,000


USAID/Lilongwe
Supplementary Feeding
$25,000

Malawian Red Cross
Health
$100,000



USAID/FFP	$8,900,600

WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 16,940 MT
$8,900,600



USDA   $1,243,382

WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 3,000 MT
$1,243,382

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO MALAWI   $10,268,982

Mozambique
USAID       $4,791,300
USAID/FFP   $4,791,300


WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 9,890 MT
$4,791,300


TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO MOZAMBIQUE    $4,791,300


Zambia

USAID       $2,966,100
USAID/FFP   $2,966,100

WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 8,500 MT
$2,966,100

USDA	$7,093,354


WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 15,000 MT
$7,093,354

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO ZAMBIA   $10,059,454



Zimbabwe

USAID       $22,589,600
USAID/FFP   $22,589,600


WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 20,120 MT
$13,241,600

WVI
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 14,310 MT
$9,348,000

USDA	$4,958,052


WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance –8,500 MT
$4,958,052

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO ZIMBABWE   $27,547,652

Regional Assistance Summary

USAID         $39,372,600
USAID/OFDA       $125,000
USAID/FFP     $39,247,600
USDA          $13,294,788

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO SOUTHERN AFRICA CRISIS
$52,667,388



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