U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - Complex Food Security Crisis
Situation Report # 7, Fiscal Year (FY) 2002    June 28, 2002


Note: This Situation Report updates Southern Africa Complex Food Security
Crisis Situation Report # 6 dated June 14, 2002.

BACKGROUND

Southern Africa is currently facing a regional food security crisis, due
to a combination of adverse climate conditions for two consecutive growing
seasons in a number of countries, mismanagement of grain reserves in some
countries, and questionable government policies, primarily in Zimbabwe.
During the past production season, unusually dry conditions extended
across much of the region, from southern Zambia eastward to southern
Mozambique, resulting in crop failures and limited production in many
areas.  Normally, food stocks carried over from the previous year and the
intra-regional trade of surplus commodities help to offset production
shortfalls.  This year, however, regional stocks are exceptionally low, as
they were drawn down to fill the previous year's food shortages, and
surplus commodities within the region are limited.  Zimbabwe is on the
verge of a serious food crisis, with almost half the population at risk.
The potential for humanitarian food crises also exists in Malawi and
Zambia.  Poor and vulnerable households in Mozambique, Swaziland, and
Lesotho will also require humanitarian assistance.  The governments of
several countries in Southern Africa have declared national disasters due
to actual and anticipated food shortages, including Malawi (February 27),
Lesotho (April 22), Zimbabwe (April 30), and Zambia (May 28).  Since the
beginning of 2002, the U.S. Government (USG) has provided more than $68
million in emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the food
security crisis through the United States Agency for International
Development's (USAID) Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP)  and the Office
of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), and the U.S. Department
of Agriculture (USDA).  The majority of the humanitarian assistance has
been emergency food relief provided by USAID/FFP.


NUMBERS AT A GLANCE - POPULATIONS IN NEED AND USG RESPONSE TO DATE

Total USG Food Aid, to date   132,710 MT


January - June 2002(1)
July 2002 - March 2003(2)

Country   USG Food   Population   Population   Population   USG Food Aid
          Aid (MT)   in Need      in Need      in Need      (MT) to date
                     Jun 02 -     Sep 02 -     Dec 02 -
                     Aug 02       Nov 02       Mar 03

Zimbabwe  42,930    5,263,000    6,075,000    6,075,000     TBD
Malawi    19,940      543,000    2,142,000    3,188,000     TBD
Zambia    23,500      467,000    1,907,000    2,329,000     TBD
Mozambique 9,890      355,000      515,000      515,000     TBD
Lesotho        0      315,200      315,200      444,800     TBD
Swaziland      0            0      144,000      231,000     TBD

Total     96,260    6,943,200   11,098,200   12,782,800     36,450(3)

1 Between January and June 2002, the USG provided 96,260 MT through WFP
EMOPs to an estimated 4.5 million beneficiaries.

2 Anticipated populations in need for July 2002 to March 2003 are based on
WFP/FAO assessments during April and May 2002.

3 The 36,450 MT has been procured and is due to arrive in the region in
late July 2002.  It has not yet been allocated to specific countries.
The USG will provide additional commodities through the Emerson Trust in
coming months.

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance, to date   $68,617,388




CURRENT SITUATION

Regional.  The most recent figures from the U.N. World Food Program (WFP)
and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicate that 6.9
million people in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe are unable to meet their immediate food requirements.  This
figure will likely rise to 11.1 million by November, and 12.8 million by
March 2003, the end of the consumption year.  WFP and FAO estimate that
more than 1.2 million MT of cereal food aid will be needed in the region
during between July 2002 and March 2003.  WFP is currently preparing its
regional Emergency Operation (EMOP) in response to the crisis, which is
expected to be released before the end of June.  The EMOP will begin July
1 for a duration of nine months and target an estimated 10.3 million of
the most severely affected individuals.

South Africa Surplus.  The Government of the Republic of South Africa
(RSA) announced on June 20 that the commercial corn crop in RSA is
estimated at nearly one percent higher than last month's forecast.  The
RSA's Crop Estimate Committee reported that the corn harvest this year
would yield 8.671 million MT, or an increase of 76,000 MT over last
month's forecast.  The increased production level is attributed higher
yields of white and yellow corn in the Mpumalanga province.  Most of the
corn surplus will likely be exported to traditional commercial
destinations in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland.

Logistical Challenges.  On June 11, USAID/FFP and USAID/Pretoria met with
WFP logistics personnel to discuss WFP's plans to move nearly one million
MT of food aid into the region over the next nine months.  The WFP
logistics plan anticipates bringing an estimated 177,000 MT of food into
the region per month, with a contingency to increase the response in some
months, if necessary.  WFP plans to ship an estimated 110,000 MT through
the Mozambican ports of Beira, Maputo and Nacala, an estimated 45,700 MT
through the South African port of Durban, and another 21,500 MT through
the Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania.  WFP anticipates transporting these
commodities overland via a combination of truck and rail.

USAID Administrator's Testimony.  USAID Administrator, Andrew Natsios,
testified before the House International Relations Committee (HIRC) on
June 13, to brief the committee on the developing food security crisis in
Southern Africa.  The Administrator provided the HIRC with background on
the food security crisis, including the pre-famine indicators, briefed the
committee on USAID's and the international community's response to the
crisis, and concluded with a call to action, outlining what steps must be
taken to prevent a famine before it occurs.  The Administrator testified
that USAID has taken appropriate actions that could position the
international community to prevent a famine, not respond to one.


COUNTRY UPDATES

Lesotho. The major causes of the current food security crisis in Lesotho
include poor cereal crop production due to drought, unseasonable heavy
rains, hailstorms, pest infestations, and poor soil management, which has
led to serious environmental degradation. WFP and FAO estimate that a
total of 444,800 people throughout Lesotho will require emergency food
assistance anticipate a food aid requirement of 50,000 MT.

Malawi. The primary cause of the current food security crisis in Malawi is
low production during the 2001/2002 growing season, which followed a
mediocre 2000/2001 harvest.  The sale of strategic food reserves in 2001
and failure to adequately restock in time is also a factor in the food
crisis.  WFP and FAO estimate that up to 3.2 million people will be
affected by food shortages by the end of the coming year and anticipate a
food aid requirement of 208,000 MT. U.S. Ambassador to Malawi, Roger A.
Meece, declared a disaster on March 8 due to the drought-related food
security crisis.

In response to a series of agricultural and landholding policy reforms,
USAID/Malawi has provided $14.6 million in budget support to the
Government of Malawi.  The Government of Malawi has agreed to use these
funds to import approximately 40,000 MT of corn in response to Malawi's
food crisis.  These policy reforms, which will help spur agricultural
production, include reducing the role of state owned enterprises and
increasing access to markets for small Malawian family farmers.  Malawi
has taken key steps to ensure a role for the private sector in
agricultural production and marketing through the removal of
discriminatory policies in areas such as business licenses, liberalization
of price supports, providing private sector access to fertilizer markets,
and the removal of marketing restrictions for both exports and domestic
markets.

Mozambique.  The causes of the current food security crisis in Mozambique
include a drought this year in southern and some central parts of the
country, devastating floods in 2000, and less severe flooding last year.
Total crop failure this year is reported in many parts of the south and
partial crop loss in areas of central Mozambique.  In the north,
Mozambique has an exportable surplus, which is estimated to be more than
100,000 MT.  However, given the long distances and poor infrastructure,
including unreliable transport routes across the Zambezi River, the
surplus production from northern Mozambique cannot easily be moved to
deficit areas in the south.  Instead, it will be exported to neighboring
Malawi, which is a traditional practice in the region.  WFP and FAO report
that approximately 515,000 people will be affected by food shortages
during the coming year and anticipate a food aid requirement of 62,000 MT.

Swaziland.  The major causes of the current food security crisis in
Swaziland include a poor 2001/2002 cereal harvest resulting from a
mid-season dry spell at the critical maturing stage, two previous years of
reduced harvests, low levels of grain reserves, and inadequate imports.
According to WFP and FAO, approximately 231,000 people in Swaziland will
need emergency food assistance during the coming year, and the cereal food
aid requirement is expected to be 12,000 MT.

Zambia.  The primary cause of the current food security crisis is low
production from the recently completed (2001/2002) growing season, due to
drought in the southern and eastern portion of the country, which followed
a poor corn harvest last year (2000/2001).  Two consecutive years of poor
harvests, plus a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS, have exhausted traditional
extended family coping mechanisms, such as liquidating household assets,
including livestock.  Moreover, the Government of Zambia, until recently,
over-emphasized the mining sector at the expense of agricultural
development.  According to the WFP and FAO assessment report released on
June 18, approximately 2.3 million people in Zambia will need emergency
food assistance this year and the food aid requirement is estimated at
174,000 MT.  On June 14, U.S. Ambassador David B. Dunn declared a food
security disaster in Zambia.

Zimbabwe.  In Zimbabwe, a combination of factors, including drought, price
controls, foreign exchange restrictions, restrictions on private sector
participation in trade and marketing, and the government's expropriation
of land from commercial farms have contributed to the food security
crisis.  The recently concluded FEWS-NET food security assessment shows
that only five of Zimbabwe's 57 districts are considered food secure in
the April 2002 to March 2003 marketing year and 40 districts are estimated
to have food access for less than three months.  WFP and FAO expect that
by December 2002, 6.1 million people in Zimbabwe will need an estimated
705,000 MT of emergency food aid.

As of June 25, under the Government of Zimbabwe's land resettlement
policy, 2,900 of Zimbabwe's commercial farmers will have 45 days to leave
their farms.  The policy also affects more than 300,000 farm workers.  An
estimated 93 percent of the commercial farms have been targeted for
resettlement.  This policy could further threaten agricultural production
in Zimbabwe and put it at risk for food shortages next year as well.

USAID is working exclusively through international organizations and NGOs
in Zimbabwe, which have in place systems to minimize the potential for
politicization of food aid distribution.


USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Since the beginning of 2002, the USG has provided more than $68 million in
emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the food security crisis,
including 132,710 MT of P.L 480 Title II and Section 416(b) emergency food
commodities.

USAID/OFDA responded to the disaster declaration in Zambia by providing
$50,000 to the U.S. Embassy in Lusaka to assist in relieving logistical
constraints to the delivery of humanitarian assistance.


USAID/FFP, USAID/OFDA, and FEWS NET continue to actively monitor the
development of the food security crisis through regular USAID field
assessments and participation in wider assessments conducted by the
international humanitarian community.  In June and July, USAID/OFDA is
carrying out follow-up technical assessments to Zimbabwe (June 11 - 18),
Zambia (June 19 - 22), Malawi (June 23 - 29), and Mozambique (June 30 -
July 5) to assess the impacts of the food security crisis on agriculture,
health, and nutrition in affected areas.

In response to the ongoing HIV/AIDS pandemic in the Southern Africa
region, USAID's Africa Bureau (USAID/AFR) is supporting HIV/AIDS
prevention, control, care, and support initiatives, as well as programs
for HIV/AIDS orphans and vulnerable children, in Malawi, Mozambique,
Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. USAID/AFR also supports a
regional HIV/AIDS program in Southern Africa that focuses on cross-border
activities in the region.


U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
SOUTHERN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY CRISIS

Country
Agency
Implementing Partner
Sector Description
Amount

Malawi

USAID/OFDA
USAID/Lilongwe
Supplementary Feeding
$25,000

USAID/OFDA
Malawian Red Cross
Health
$100,000

USAID/FFP
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 16,940 MT
$8,900,600

Total USAID   $9,025,600


USDA
WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 3,000 MT
$1,243,382

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO MALAWI   $10,268,982



Mozambique

USAID/FFP
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 9,890 MT
$4,791,300

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO MOZAMBIQUE   $4,791,300



Zambia

USAID/OFDA
U.S. Embassy in Lusaka
Transportation Logistics
$50,000

USAID/FFP
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 8,500 MT
$2,966,100

Total USAID   $3,016,100

USDA
WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 15,000 MT
$7,093,354

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO ZAMBIA   $10,109,454



Zimbabwe
USAID/FFP
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 20,120 MT
$13,241,600

USAID/FFP
World Vision
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 14,310 MT
$9,348,000

Total USAID   $22,589,600

USDA
WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 8,500 MT
$4,958,052

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO ZIMBABWE   $27,547,652



Region
(Countries TBD)
USAID/FFP
TBD
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 36,450 MT
$15,900,000



SUMMARY OF USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
USAID/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)	   $175,000
USAID/Office of Food For Peace (FFP)   $55,147,600
USAID Total   $55,322,600
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)   $13,294,788
TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, TO DATE   $68,617,388



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