U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - Complex Food Security Crisis
Situation Report #12, Fiscal Year (FY) 2002    September 20, 2002


Note: This Situation Report updates Southern Africa Complex Food Security
Crisis Situation Report #11 dated September 5, 2002.


BACKGROUND

A number of Southern African countries are currently experiencing food
security crises, due to a combination of adverse climate conditions for
two consecutive growing seasons, mismanagement of grain reserves, and
questionable government policies, primarily in Zimbabwe. During the past
production season, unusually dry conditions extended across much of the
region, from southern Zambia eastward to southern Mozambique, resulting in
crop failures and limited production in many areas. Normally, food stocks
carried over from the previous year and the intra-regional trade of
surplus commodities help to offset production shortfalls. This year,
however, regional stocks are exceptionally low, as they were drawn down to
fill the previous year's food shortages, and surplus commodities within
the region are limited. Zimbabwe is facing a serious humanitarian crisis,
with nearly half the population at risk. Humanitarian food crises also
exist in Malawi and Zambia. Poor and vulnerable households in Swaziland
and Lesotho and some parts of Mozambique also require food assistance. The
governments of several countries have declared national disasters due to
actual and anticipated food shortages, including Malawi (February 27),
Lesotho (April 22), Zimbabwe (April 30), and Zambia (May 28). In July, the
U.N. issued a regional Consolidated Interagency Appeal (CAP) to meet the
food and non- food emergency humanitarian needs in Southern Africa. The
U.N. appealed for $611 million from donors, including $507 million for
food aid through the U.N. World Food Program's (WFP) Emergency Operation
(EMOP). Since the beginning of 2002, in response to the food security
crisis, the U.S. Government (USG) has provided or pledged nearly $277
million in humanitarian assistance through the U.S. Agency for
International Development's (USAID) Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP)
and the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), and the
U.S.  Department of Agriculture (USDA). The majority of the humanitarian
assistance has been emergency food relief provided by USAID/FFP.



NUMBERS AT A GLANCE - POPULATIONS IN NEED

                            Max Percentage
                            of Total
             Max Number of  (Country/Region)  Cummulative Emergency
             Population     Population        Food Aid and Cereal
             in Need(1)     in Need(1)        Requirements (MT)(1)

Zimbabwe       6,700,000         49%                486,000
Malawi         3,300,000         29%                237,000
Zambia         2,900,000         26%                224,000
Lesotho          650,000         30%                 36,000
Mozambique       590,000          3%                 48,000
Swaziland        270,000         24%                 20,000
Total         14,400,000         25%              1,000,000

1 Anticipated populations and food aid needs between June 2002 and March
2003 are based on WFP/FAO assessments during April and May 2002.

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance provided, to date   $276,912,872
Total USG Food Aid provided, to date, in Metric Tons (MT)   499,513



CURRENT SITUATION

Latest Shipment of U.S. Food Aid to the Region.  The USAID-chartered ship,
the M/V Liberty Sea, with 41,500 MT of food commodities, arrived on
September 5 in Maputo (Nacala and Beira), Mozambique. A second
USAID-chartered ship, the Marie Flood, with 33,500 MT of food commodities,
arrived in Durban, South Africa, on September 9. The arrival of these two
ships brings the total tonnage delivered to the region to approximately
200,000 MT. At the beginning of October, two more ships, the Liberty Grace
and the M/V Amalfi, are expected to arrive in the region with an
additional 60,000 MT of food commodities.

Update on the WFP Emergency Operation (EMOP).  As of September 13, WFP
reported that 36 percent of the EMOP, issued on July 1, has been funded.
Nearly 70 percent of contributions so far are from the USG. WFP is facing
a shortfall in pledges of approximately $326 million for the entire EMOP.
In addition, WFP announced that U.N. agencies will rely heavily on
Mozambican ports (Maputo, Beira and Nacala) to distribute 70 percent of
the 1.2 million MT of food that WFP hopes will be mobilized for the
region.

After concluding his two-week trip to the region, James Morris, the
Executive Director of WFP and the U.N.  Special Envoy for Humanitarian
Needs in Southern Africa, announced that the food crisis is intensifying,
and the situation has particularly deteriorated in Zimbabwe and Zambia.
Mr. Morris said the prospects for next year's harvest are bleak unless
small-scale farmers acquire the needed seeds and fertilizers in time for
the planting season. In addition, a UN OCHA representative who accompanied
Mr. Morris on the trip added that there is a need to increase
supplementary infant and pre-school age feeding programs in the region to
avoid crucial nutrition losses.

On September 10, WFP and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red
Crescent Societies (IFRC) signed an agreement in Malawi outlining their
operational partnership in the region. The organizations agreed to work
jointly to supply and deliver food and non-food items to Lesotho, Malawi,
Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. As part of the agreement, IFRC has made a
$7.9 million Transport Support Package (TSP) available to WFP, which will
help with emergency transport and distribution. The Government of Norway
and the Norwegian Red Cross originally donated the TSP to IFRC. The TSP
consists of 200 trucks, 41 support vehicles, 24 deployable warehouses,
radio equipment, and spare parts.

New Joint Emergency Food Security Assessments Complete.  Beginning in
mid-August, the National Vulnerability Assessment Committees (VACs)
conducted the first in a series of three emergency assessments in the six
most affected countries. The aim was to update the figures of those in
need, assess the amount of food they require, and to improve targeting of
food aid. The exercise was coordinated and backstopped by the Southern
Africa Development Community's Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources
Development Unit (SADC FANR) and comprised of participants from SADC FANR
technical units, the USAID-supported Famine Early Warning Systems Network
(FEWS NET), WFP, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Save
the Children UK, UNICEF, and the IFRC.  The final Emergency Assessment
Reports were jointly released by the SADC FANR and the U.N. Special Envoy
on September 16 in Johannesburg. The assessments revealed that the food
crisis is worsening as household food stocks have been largely depleted
across the region. The SADC FANR report found that since WFP/FAO conducted
its April–May assessments, an additional 1.6 million people will be in
need of food aid in Southern Africa. Between September and November,
approximately 10 million people will need assistance, and this number is
expected to increase to 14.4 million between December and March 2003.
Overall, the most vulnerable populations are characterized as female-
headed rural households, with orphans, little or no livestock, and small
land holdings.

SADC FANR estimates that one million MT of emergency cereal food aid will
be needed until the next harvest (April–May); this is 13.6 percent higher
than the U.N.'s calculation three months ago. The report also indicated
that if conditions deteriorate further there could be widespread and
life-threatening malnutrition.  However, current regional wasting
(inadequate weight- for-height) figures are below levels expected in times
of severe food shortages. SADC FANR will complete a second assessment by
mid-December and the third and final report will be issued at the end of
the cropping season.

Controversy Over Biotech-Derived Food Aid.  Some governments in Southern
African have expressed concerns about biotech food aid. The Government of
Zambia (GRZ) announced on August 16 that it would not accept
biotech-derived food aid due to health and environmental concerns;
however, the GRZ is currently studying the issue more in-depth. The
governments of Mozambique and Malawi also share concerns over the
environmental affects of biotech food, but will accept such food aid as
long as it is milled prior to distribution.  Swaziland and Lesotho have
continued to accept all relief food aid of biotech origin, provided it is
milled.

On September 5, Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe announced that the
Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ)  would accept biotech-derived food products,
reversing its previous decision. However, the GOZ stipulated that biotech
corn would be quarantined in country and milled before distribution.

Regional Climate Outlook.  At the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook
forum held in Harare, Zimbabwe, from September 4 through September 6, SADC
representatives and scientists from cooperating international institutions
concluded that northern Zambia, northern Mozambique, and southern Malawi
should receive normal to above normal rainfall between October and
December 2002, while the rest of the region is likely to experience normal
to below normal rainfall during the 2002/2003 rainy season. From January
through March 2003, the outlook is for normal conditions to prevail over
most of the region, although there is a chance of below normal rainfall in
southern Zambia, southern Malawi, central and southern Mozambique,
Zimbabwe, and Swaziland. The meeting also concluded that since the El Niño
event is still weak and developing, it is not possible to determine the
magnitude of its impact on rainfall in the region.


COUNTRY UPDATES

Zimbabwe.  The SADC FANR assessment showed that Zimbabwe has by far the
largest population in need in the region. Approximately 6.7 million
people, or 49 percent of the national population, will require food aid
through March 2003. Cereal production for the 2001/2002 season dropped by
65 percent below the five-year national average in Zimbabwe. As a result,
the country will require almost half of the overall amount of cereal
needed by the entire region—486,000 MT out of the one million MT total.

According to WFP, it has distributed 36,800 MT to 750,000 Zimbabweans
since February 2002. The U.N.  agency is currently registering additional
households in 20 districts and will expand coverage to a total of 28
districts by the end of September. WFP also reported that the Grain
Marketing Board has purchased 2,000 MT of wheat, which should help to
alleviate some bread shortages in urban areas.

UNICEF has launched a three-month supplementary feeding program in
Zimbabwe that will target five districts in the northeast. UNICEF decided
to launch the program after a joint assessment with the Zimbabwe National
VAC and WFP revealed that wasting rates have increased from 6.4 to 7.1
percent; underweight rates have risen from 20.4 to 24.4 percent; and
stunting (inadequate height-for-age) is up from 33 to 43.2 percent.

As of September 11, a cholera outbreak exacerbated by food shortages in
the districts of Zaka and Bikita in Masvingo Province has caused ten
deaths out of the 350 reported cases of the disease. UNICEF, the Zimbabwe
Red Cross Society, and local health authorities are currently working on a
cholera education and prevention campaign.

On September 12, President Robert Mugabe denied that the GOZ's land
redistribution policy is linked to the food crisis. However, Refugees
International (RI) recently conducted an assessment in Zimbabwe and found
that the land reform program has displaced at least a million people,
mostly black farm workers, forcing them to look for food and income
through alternative means. Some farm workers have remained on farms,
others have moved to where their families are located, while others have
sought refuge in urban areas or migrated to where food distributions take
place. In addition, RI reported that people are being denied food for
political reasons and in some areas food distributions are based on
political affiliation. Politicizing food aid distribution may continue
ahead of the September 28 and September 29 district elections as ruling
party ZANU-PF officials attempt to produce party victories.

USAID/OFDA is responding with non-food assistance in Zimbabwe to
complement the USG food aid response.  USAID/OFDA has provided more than
$330,000 to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Assistance (UN OCHA) to fund an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) Advisor
and Monitor, who is based in Harare, and to support the U.N.'s Relief and
Recovery Unit in Zimbabwe. In addition, USAID/OFDA is funding two
agricultural recovery programs and a combined nutrition and agricultural
project. Funding for the three programs totals nearly $2.6 million.


Malawi.  The SADC FANR food security assessment indicated that Malawi may
be the only country in the region that will experience a national lack of
key agricultural inputs. Malawi is expected to have to import
approximately 8,000 MT of hybrid corn and 300 MT of open pollinated
varieties to meet the seed requirements for three million farmers next
year. Seed availability is not expected to be a problem this season, but
poor farmers are likely to encounter a problem accessing seeds in a timely
manner given their low levels of income, depleted food stocks, and the
high costs of staple foods.  In addition, since inputs were distributed
late for this year's planting season, the winter harvest will not yield
the expected 166,000 MT. This has occurred despite the Government of
Malwai's (GOM) efforts to provide agricultural input starter packs to
approximately three million small-holding farmers and FAO's distribution
of seed to 50,000 farmers.

Despite the GOM's September 2 statement that future shipments of biotech
food aid would have to be milled before distribution, unmilled food is
still being distributed in country. The GOM recently announced that
distribution will continue uninterrupted until a milling plan is in place.
The GOM had been informed by WFP that it was concerned that its milling
requirement could delay the distribution of needed humanitarian relief due
to logistical difficulties, additional costs, and the country's limited
milling capacity.

In Malawi, USAID/OFDA is responding to the urgent need for seed
distribution prior to the October rains by funding three agricultural
recovery projects worth nearly $2.6 million, which will be carried out by
CARE, World Vision, and CRS. In addition, USAID/OFDA has provided
approximately $1.1 million to support a UNICEF emergency nutrition
program. Also in response to the cholera outbreak in the Nkhotakota area
that has caused 41 deaths since the beginning of the year, USAID/OFDA has
provided the U.N. World Health Organization (WHO) $825,866 for a response
and prevention project.


Zambia.  According to the SADC FANR assessment, Zambia has made the least
progress in filling its cereal gap, meeting less than nine percent of its
requirements, compared to the average 25 percent imported to date by the
rest of the countries in the region. The food security assessment also
examined the urban food needs in Zambia (no urban studies were conducted
in the other five countries) and found that approximately 97,000 orphaned
and vulnerable children are in need of assistance.

On September 5, President Levy Mwanawasa announced that the GRZ is
encouraging local production of corn during the winter months through
irrigation and expect to harvest 15,000 MT of winter corn by October. In
addition, he announced that the GRZ wanted the U.N.  agencies and other
donors to respect his government's decision to not accept biotech-derived
food aid since they had not provided sufficient evidence verifying the
safety of biotech food. President Mwanawasa said the GRZ was taking these
precautionary measures to protect its people, but indicated that the GRZ
remains open to seeing conclusive evidence that shows biotech food is
safe. As part of this effort, a team of seven Zambian scientists visited
the United States from September 11 through September 18, following USAID
Administrator Andrew Natsios' offer to provide the GRZ with further
information on biotech-derived foods. The delegation met with officials
and technical experts involved in biotechnology research and the USG's
regulatory review process of biotech-derived foods.

However, regardless of the GRZ's ongoing study of the biotech issue, on
September 13, Zambian leaders stated they were confident that the country
could meet its food needs without relying on biotech food aid. Zambia's
Minister of Agriculture had previously stated that the GRZ would import up
to 156,000 MT of non-biotech- derived corn. In addition, he had said that
the GRZ would contract the private sector to import an additional 300,000
MT to avoid food shortages and prevent prices from further escalating.

During August, WFP transported more than 6,300 MT of food in Zambia,
meeting 62 percent of the needs for the month. WFP and its implementing
partners continue to distribute white corn from its 7,000 MT stocks in
country. However, due to the GRZ's rejection of biotech food aid, WFP has
temporarily suspended the distribution of yellow biotech corn. The U.S.
Embassy in Zambia has confirmed that WFP continues to feed refugees in
Zambia with existing stocks of food since WFP has not received any formal
notification that the GRZ has prohibited this distribution. On September
16, the U.N. warned the GRZ that it needs to overcome its objections to
biotech food since the WFP will run out of its non-biotech food supplies
in a few days.  As with Malawi, there is a critical need to distribute
seeds to Zambian farmers in time for planting before the October rains. As
a result, USAID/OFDA is funding three agricultural recovery projects,
worth nearly $1.5 million, which will be carried out by CARE, CLUSA, and
World Vision.


Mozambique.  Mozambique has made the most progress among the other five
affected countries in importing its cereal requirements, according to
findings from the recent SADC FANR assessment. Mozambique has imported 78
percent of its domestic food gap since the beginning of the marketing year
through a combination of commercial and food aid imports. In addition, the
report indicated that Mozambique cereal production was up five percent
during the 2001/2002 season due to good rainfall and high production
levels in northern areas.

Despite this progress, the number of people in need rose by approximately
14 percent since the earlier assessment in May. The increase in numbers
was attributed largely to additional populations in the provinces of
Zambezia and Nampula in need of food aid.

WFP reported on September 13 that it was facing a 20 percent shortage of
vegetable oil for September. Also Mozambique's National Disaster
Management Institute Director four days later said the country's food
stocks would only last until October. The Government of Mozambique also
expects the situation could deteriorate further during the beginning of
2003 because low rainfall is forecasted for the worst hit areas in the
south and central parts of the country.


Lesotho.  WFP reported that, to date, it had received 5,700 MT for
Lesotho. WFP's implementing partners have delivered food to 37,000 people
in three districts and operations will expand into two more districts over
the next few weeks. However, recent poor weather conditions have delayed
distributions in some areas. In addition, FAO is providing 260 MT of seeds
to affected households in Mafeteng, Mohale's Hoek, and Quthing.

In response to the food shortages that are expected to increase,
USAID/OFDA has provided $20,000 through the U.S. Embassy in Lesotho to
support an agricultural crisis response program. The program, which will
be carried out by Peace Corps and the Government of Lesotho's Food and
Nutrition Coordinating Office (FNCO), will work with local extension
agents and local communities in Qacha's Nek, Quthing, Mohales's Hoek, and
Mokhotlong and Maseru Districts to promote permanent agriculture.


Swaziland.  During the month of August, WFP provided 2,000 MT of food to
115,000 Swazis. September food distributions are currently underway and
WFP has reported that the food basket for Swaziland is complete since
9,5000 MT of corn and 319 MT of split peas are expected to arrive in
country by the end of the month. On September 11, the U.N. Resident
Coordinator in Swaziland reported that aid agencies had drawn up a
comprehensive $20 million appeal to alleviate the country's food
shortages. The majority of the budget will be dedicated to fortifying food
supplies for more than 270,000 Swazis who are facing starvation and many
affected by HIV/AIDS. In addition, part of the funds would be used to
provide farmers with needed inputs, such as seeds, fertilizers, and access
to tractors.



USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Since the beginning of 2002, the USG has provided or pledged nearly $277
million in emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the food
security crisis.

USAID/FFP has reviewed and conditionally approved a NGO consortium
proposal that would provide additional targeted assistance to the Southern
African region.

Besides the emergency non-food programs already underway in Zimbabwe,
Malawi, Zambia, and Lesotho, USAID/OFDA has also provided $1 million to
WFP to assist with its regional management and logistics coordination. In
addition, USAID/OFDA will continue to address needs in water and
sanitation, coordination, nutrition, and health, particularly preparing
for outbreaks of endemic and other opportunistic diseases, such as
malaria, tuberculosis, cholera, and childhood diseases.

In addition to emergency humanitarian efforts for the food security crisis
in Southern Africa, USAID programs are designed to reduce the risk of
future crises through the Agricultural Initiative to Cut Hunger in Africa.
The primary objective of the Initiative is to have a rapid and sustainable
increase in agricultural growth and hence rural incomes in sub-Saharan
Africa. That initiative will accomplish its objectives in part through
advancing scientific and technological applications that will raise
agricultural productivity and create agriculture-based enterprises, and
improving the efficiency of, and participation in, agricultural trade and
market systems.

In response to the ongoing HIV/AIDS pandemic in the Southern Africa
region, USAID's Africa Bureau (USAID/AFR) is supporting HIV/AIDS
prevention, control, care, and support initiatives, as well as programs
for HIV/AIDS orphans and vulnerable children, in Malawi, Mozambique,
Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. USAID/AFR also supports a
regional HIV/AIDS program in Southern Africa that focuses on cross-border
activities in the region.



U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
SOUTHERN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY CRISIS

Country
Agency
Implementing Partner
Sector Description
Amount


Lesotho

USAID/OFDA
U.S. Embassy in Lesotho
Agriculture
$20,000

USAID/FFP*
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food and Emerson Trust Assistance:  27,210 MT
$13,605,000

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO LESOTHO   $13,625,000



Malawi

USAID/OFDA
USAID/Lilongwe
Supplementary Feeding
$25,000


USAID/OFDA
UNICEF
Emergency Nutrition
$1,099,800

USAID/OFDA
Malawian Red Cross
Health
$100,000

USAID/OFDA
CARE
Agriculture
$772,552

USAID/OFDA
World Vision
Agriculture
$1,172,600

USAID/OFDA
CRS
Agriculture
$645,172

USAID/OFDA
WHO
Cholera Response and Prevention
$825,866

USAID/FFP*
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food and Emerson Trust Assistance:  84,880 MT
$42,440,000

Total USAID   $47,080,990


USDA
WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance –3,000 MT
$1,243,382

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO MALAWI   $48,324,372




Mozambique

USAID/FFP*
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food and Emerson Trust Assistance:   17,390 MT
$8,695,000

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO MOZAMBIQUE   $8,695,000



Swaziland

USAID/FFP*
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food and Emerson Trust Assistance: 12,400 MT
$6,200,000

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO SWAZILAND   $6,200,000



Zambia

USAID/OFDA
U.S. Embassy in Zambia
Transportation Logistics
$50,000

USAID/OFDA
CARE
Agriculture
$611,308

USAID/OFDA
CLUSA
Agriculture
$249,383

USAID/ODFA
World Vision
Agriculture
$627,869

USAID/FFP*
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food and Emerson Trust Assistance: 24,100 MT
$12,050,000

Total USAID   $13,588,560


USDA
WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance –15,000 MT
$7,093,354

TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO ZAMBIA   $20,681,914




Zimbabwe

USAID/OFDA
UN OCHA
Field Coordination
$100,000

USAID/OFDA
UN OCHA
IDP Advisor and Monitor
$231,525

USAID/OFDA
CARE
Agriculture
$945,242

USAID/OFDA
World Vision
Agriculture
$549,072

USAID/OFDA
CRS
Agriculture/Nutrition
$1,099,822

USAID/FFP*
WFP
P.L. 480 Title II Food and
Emerson Trust Assistance: 83,820 MT
$41,910,000

USAID/FFP*
World Vision
P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 14,310 MT
$9,348,000

Total USAID   $54,183,661



USDA
WFP
Section 416(b) Food Assistance - 8,500 MT
$4,958,052


TOTAL USG ASSISTANCE TO ZIMBABWE   $59,141,713



Regional Support

USAID/OFDA
WFP
Regional Management and Logistics Coordination
$1,000,000

Region (Country allocation to be finalized)
USAID/FFP*


TBD
Emerson Trust - 161,050 MT
$84,870,200

P.L. 480 Title II Food Assistance - 47,853 MT
$34,374,673



SUMMARY OF USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

USAID/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)	  $10,125,211
USAID/Office of Food For Peace (FFP)*  $253,492,873
USAID Total  $263,618,084
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Total   $13,294,788
TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, TO DATE   $276,912,872

* Note: USAID/FFP values are estimates. Commodities may be reallocated as
required to meet changing needs.



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