OCHA Situation Report No. 3
Papua New Guinea - Volcanic eruption
27 September 2002


commenced: 5 August 2002

This situation report is based on information provided by OCHA's Regional
Disaster Response Adviser currently in Kimbe, working alongside the PNG
National Disaster Management Office (NDMO)  and AusAID team that is
supporting the West New Britain Provincial Disaster Committee.


The Ongoing Eruption

1.  The volcano continues to erupt, expelling steam and a thin vapour
plume from vents near Mt. Pago's summit to the northwest over the Hoskins
Peninsula.  Lava continues to flow into the wider Witori Caldera basin,
but is contained by its wall.  Low-level seismicity of a volcanic nature
suggests that activity will continue, and ground deformation along the
western part of the caldera floor continues at a slow rate.  Monitoring
about 3km southwest of the summit has shown a small uplift but the
significance of this is not yet clear.

2.  With the arrival of technical teams and equipment from Japan and the
United States a monitoring network is now being established, but it will
take some months of data collection and analysis to assess the state of
the volcano.  When this is achieved it may be possible to predict the
future course of the eruption and to generate hazard information and
forecasts that are targeted to the needs of local decision-makers.

3.  In the meantime, the volcanologists believe that the vapour emission,
lava flow and slow deformation will continue for some time, and that
activity could break out in the structurally deformed area. Furthermore,
the character of the eruption could change, either for worse or better.


The Emergency Situation

4.  Of the 15,000 inhabitants of the affected part of the Hoskins
Peninsula, close to the crater and in the arc to the northwest,
approximately 13,000 have been evacuated from their villages since early
August.  1,770 families or 8,000 of these are currently living in 7
government and 3 private 'care centres'; about 1,000 are living around
Kimbe, the provincial capital; and the remaining 4,000 are being supported
by friends and relatives in local communities.  It is estimated that 2,000
people ? mainly men ? are still living in their villages, looking after
property and engaged in limited cultivation.

5.  Conditions in the 'care centres' are poor.  Most have limited space
and too few shelters resulting in severe overcrowding.  Water supply and
sanitation facilities are inadequate, but are currently being addressed
with AusAID assistance.  Most people are sleeping directly on the ground
and some of them in the open.  Food supplies sufficient for two meals per
day for each occupant are supposed to be provided, but often they are only
sufficient for one.  Recently, deliveries have become less predictable,
making planning in the centres difficult.

6.  As a result of these poor conditions there is a growing incidence of
skin problems and malaria and, though still at a low level,
gastroenteritis is feared to become epidemic.  The lumping together of
men, women and children of all ages from a number of villages also results
in severe social stress. Provision of a better standard of accommodation
and essential social services is thus crucial.  Similarly critical is the
ability to engage in productive activities such as gardening, but
unfortunately the main cash crop for small farmers in PNG is no longer
harvested, due to the failure of the Copra Marketing Board.

7.  Although only a few millimeters of ash has fallen even in the worst
affected areas, it is a fine volcanic ash with high silica content, which
poses a serious hazard to aviation.  Hoskins Airport has therefore been
closed since early August, shutting off the direct link to Port Moresby
and the flow of tourists that helps support the provincial economy.  Air
transport is now much lengthier and more expensive.  It is only possible
to reach Kimbe by sea or by light aircraft to Bialla and then three hours
drive along the rough coast road, only passable in the dry season.


National Response

8.  The West New Britain Administration, and the Provincial Disaster
Committee (PDC) and care centre organisation it established, were very
successful in mobilising public and private sector resources to respond to
the crisis, initially with little outside assistance.  Perhaps
understandably, nearly two months later, they are finding it hard to
sustain this commitment of staff time, energy and funds, without
neglecting their normal governmental responsibilities in the province.
There are concerns about the longer term economic effects as well as
humanitarian support of the evacuated population.

9.  In purely financial terms the Provincial Administration has expended
at least USD 57,000 of its own limited funds.  Private businesses,
particularly West New Britain Palm Oil Ltd., the largest employer, have
contributed a similar sum.  The NDMO has seconded experienced disaster
managers from Port Moresby as advisers to the PDC.  The PNG Government has
provided the first half of a PGK 2 million (USD 572,000) grant to the
Province.  Most of this has now been spent and the second tranche is
expected shortly, but more will be required if the eruption continues for
some months, as expected.

10.  The Red Cross has supplied 124 tarpaulins and items from one of its
disaster preparedness containers based in Lae.  The Salvation Army has
been active, and Caritas has supplied emergency supplies thanks to a USD
8,000 cash donation from local businesses.  Other private companies have
lent vehicles for the original evacuation, and provided various foodstuffs
direct to the 'care centres' free of charge.

11.  The introduction of overseas technical teams has been achieved
through the efforts of the Rabaul Volcanological Observatory from East New
Britain, which is overseeing scientific efforts. The Government is now
setting up a Kimbe Volcanological Observatory to coordinate the scientific
work on Mt. Pago, and ultimately to monitor and evaluate the threat posed
by West New Britain's three other active volcanoes, particularly Mt.
Ulawun.  The new observatory will be operational by the end of September.


International Response

12.  The Government formally requested international relief assistance for
this emergency on 19 August. Until the longer-term prognosis is clear,
donors are concentrating only on the provision of emergency relief and
technical assistance for volcanology and disaster management, whilst
trying to avoid fostering any dependency on outside aid.  The following
assistance has been provided:

|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| Country/      | Description of assistance         | Value in |
| Organization  |                                   |    USD   |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| Australia     | Relief funds to support           |  546,000 |
|               | affected communities              |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
|               | 1,200 family-sized tarpaulins     |      not |
|               |                                   |   costed |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
|               | Expertise for capacity            |      not |
|               | building in risk management       |   costed |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
|               | A nutritionist and a water        |      not |
|               | and sanitation specialist         |   costed |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| China         | Relief funds to support           |   58,000 |
|               | affected communities              |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| Japan         | Water tanks, towels, tents,       |   total: |
|               | and generators (in-kind)          |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
|               | Disaster Relief Team with         |   75,000 |
|               | vulcanologists & equipment        |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| New Zealand   | Relief funds to support           |   47,000 |
|               | affected communities              |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
|               | One UNDAC Team Member             |      not |
|               |                                   |   costed |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| United States | US Geological Survey              | ~150,000 |
| of America    | vulcanological team & equipment   |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| UNDP          | Provision of transport to         |   50,000 |
|               | villages and building materials   |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| UNFPA         | Provision of transport to         |   50,000 |
|               | villages and building materials   |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| UNICEF        | Health support, child protection, |   total: |
|               | and 'schools-in-a-box'            |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
|               | 1,200 tents and                   |  200,000 |
|               | 4,000 mosquito nets               |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| WHO           | Medical kit for 10,000 people     |      not |
|               |                                   |   costed |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| OCHA          |Support for UN Country Team        |      not |
|               | assessment & coordination         |   costed |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|
| Caritas (New  | Relief funds to support           |    2,300 |
| Zealand)      | affected communities              |          |
|---------------+-----------------------------------+----------|


Projected Evolution

13.  Current understanding of the risk is based on incomplete scientific
evidence and it will be at least 3 months before sufficient data can be
gathered and analysed to enable a decent hazard assessment.

14.  Consequently the Provincial Disaster Committee (PDC) has not
permitted the return of the evacuated populations evacuees to their
villages, except for short visits. The lack of cheap transport also
restricts such activities, and would complicate and delay any larger scale
evacuation if this became necessary.

15.  Although drought is a growing worry across PNG at present, it is the
onset of wet weather that most concerns disaster managers, since prolonged
rain will make life in their overcrowded and unsanitary conditions much
harder than it already is.

16.  The seasonal shift in the prevailing winds during October will place
another 8-9,000 people at risk in any future ash ejection, and the
resultant needs could overwhelm an already stressed provincial
administration.  A complicating factor is that many of these newly
threatened communities lie over the border in East New Britain, although
there is no land-link from there to the provincial headquarters near
Rabaul.  Inter-provincial planning is clearly necessary.

17.  In view of the protracted nature of the volcano emergency, national
and provincial disaster managers supported by technical advisers from
donor countries, are now commencing preparation of contingency plans for
three possible scenarios.  The first scenario is that eruptive activity
continues as at present through the wet season, with ash-fall affecting a
further 8,000 people; the second is that it becomes more explosive with
pyroclastic flow impacting an area up to 15 km from the volcano; the worst
case scenario is a caldera forming eruption, potentially affecting up to
30,000 people within a 30 km radius.

18.  The National Government, donor countries and international
organisations will need to maintain their support to the West New Britain
in monitoring both the volcano and the humanitarian situation over the
next 3-4 months, and remain ready to respond appropriately when critical
gaps appear.

19.  OCHA is in close contact with the Office of the UN Resident
Coordinator in Papua New Guinea.


This situation report, together with further information on this and other
ongoing emergencies, is also available on the OCHA Internet Website at
http://www.reliefweb.int



Telephone: +41-22-91712 34
Fax: +41-22-917 00 23
E-mail: ochagva@un.org

In case of emergency only: Tel. +41-22-917 20 10

Desk Officers:
  Mr. R. Mueller / Mr. S. Nakajima
  Direct Tel. +41-22-917 3131/ 4034

Press contact:
  (GVA)  Ms. Elizabeth Byrs, direct Tel. +41-22-917 2653
  (NYC)  Brian Grogan direct Tel. +1-212-963-1143


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