U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - Complex Food Security Crisis
Situation Report #4, Fiscal Year (FY) 2003    November 15, 2002

Note: the last situation report was dated November 1, 2002.


BACKGROUND

A number of Southern African countries are currently experiencing food
security crises, due to a combination of adverse climate conditions for
two consecutive growing seasons, mismanagement of grain reserves, and
restrictive government policies that severely inhibit private sector
commerce. During the past production season, unusually dry conditions
extended across much of the region, from southern Zambia eastward to
southern Mozambique, resulting in crop failures and limited production in
many areas. Normally, food stocks carried over from the previous year and
the intra-regional trade of surplus commodities help to offset production
shortfalls. This year, however, regional stocks are exceptionally low, as
they were drawn down to fill the previous year's food shortages, and
surplus commodities within the region are limited. Zimbabwe is facing a
serious humanitarian crisis, with nearly half the population at risk.
Humanitarian food crises also exist in Malawi and Zambia. Poor and
vulnerable households in Swaziland and Lesotho and some parts of
Mozambique also require food assistance. The governments of several
countries have declared national disasters due to actual and anticipated
food shortages, including Malawi (February 27), Lesotho (April 22),
Zimbabwe (April 30), and Zambia (May 28). In July, the United Nations
(U.N.) issued a regional Consolidated Interagency Appeal (CAP) to meet the
food and non-food emergency humanitarian needs in Southern Africa. The
U.N.  appealed for $611 million from donors, including $507 million for
food aid through the U.N. World Food Program's (WFP) Emergency Operation
(EMOP). Since the beginning of 2002, in response to the food security
crisis, the U.S.  Government (USG) has provided or pledged more than $276
million in humanitarian assistance through the U.S.  Agency for
International Development's (USAID) Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP)
and the Office of U.S.  Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), and the
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The majority of the USG
humanitarian assistance has been emergency food relief provided by
USAID/FFP.

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE
POPULATIONS IN NEED: SEPTEMBER 1, 2002 TO MARCH 31, 2003

                                      Maximum Percentage of
Country      Maximum Number of        Total (Country/Region) of
Country      Population in Need (1)   Population in Need (1)

Zimbabwe        6,700,000                  49%
Malawi          3,300,000                  29%
Zambia          2,900,000                  26%
Lesotho           650,000                  30%
Mozambique        590,000                   3%
Swaziland         270,000                  24%
Total          14,400,000                  25%

1 Anticipated populations and food aid needs are based on SADC FANR
assessments released on September 16, 2002. (Numbers are rounded.)

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance provided, to date
$276,029,550

Total USG Food Aid provided, to date, in Metric Tons (MT)
499,193




CURRENT SITUATION

Latest Shipment of U.S. Food Aid to the Region.  The USAID-chartered ship
the Liberty Sun is expected to arrive in the region on November 15, with
58,250 MT of corn. Another ship, the Golden Bay, is scheduled to arrive at
the end of November. The commodities aboard these two ships will bring the
total metric tonnage delivered to the region to approximately 352,000. The
balance of approximately 147,000 MT will arrive in the region between
December, January, and February.

Update on the WFP Emergency Operation (EMOP).  On November 7, WFP reported
that it still faces a $254 million shortfall for its EMOP. The EMOP
requirements through March call for 992,459 MT in food aid, which means
that WFP has an un-resourced balance of 440,000 MT.

The U.N. Regional Inter-Agency Coordination Support Office (RIACSO)
announced that since it launched its $611 million appeal in July, almost
half of the pledges received have been for the food sector, but
significantly less resources have been dedicated to non-food needs. Of the
almost $269 million in total pledges, only eight percent have been
earmarked for water and sanitation, 15 percent for health, and 27 percent
for agricultural support.

Status of Biotech-Derived Food Aid. The Government of the Republic of
Zambia (GRZ) has announced that it would not accept biotech-derived food
assistance, even if milled. The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) has stated
that it will accept biotech-derived food assistance, provided it is
quarantined and milled before distribution.  Mozambique and Malawi have
expressed concerns over the environmental effects of biotech food, but are
accepting such food aid as long as it is milled before distribution.
However, the Government of Malawi (GOM)  has publicly stated its intention
not to disrupt the distribution of humanitarian corn if milling is not
possible.  Swaziland and Lesotho have continued to accept all relief food
aid of biotech origin, but Lesotho requires milling.

WFP reiterated on November 12 that it relies on the judgment of the World
Health Organization that biotech food is safe for consumption and has
passed the necessary safety screening. WFP released its statement
following comments by the U.N. Special Rapporteur of the Commission of
Human Rights "on the right to food,"  who questioned the safety of biotech
food.

Cereal Prices Rising. On October 28, the Famine Early Warning Systems
Network (FEWS NET) released a report on cereal price trends in Southern
Africa, which indicated that nominal prices in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and
Zambia are likely to remain high and expected to escalate until the next
harvest. These higher prices will worsen the food access situation in
those and neighboring countries in the region. According to FEWS NET,
Zimbabwe and Malawi have the most-at-risk populations, and Zambia to a
lesser extent.

HIV/AIDS Meeting. On November 6 and November 7, representatives from the
U.N., non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) met in Johannesburg to discuss the impact of
the HIV/AIDS pandemic on the food crisis in Southern Africa. The meeting
focused on ways food aid can be best used to assist those families
affected by the disease.



COUNTRY UPDATES

Zimbabwe. A USAID/OFDA Humanitarian Response Advisor in Zimbabwe reported
that Zimbabwe's food security crisis is deteriorating into a potential
humanitarian catastrophe. The advisor noted that conditions worsened in
October since neither donors, the GOZ, nor the private sector were able to
cover the national food deficit. Food is in extremely short supply, and
the GOZ has impeded efforts to conduct an effective response. In addition,
there have been anecdotal accounts of hunger-related deaths, growing
numbers of displaced persons and refugees, and deteriorating public health
conditions.

RIACSO warned on November 8 that Zimbabwe's fragile economy could
exacerabate the country's humanitarian crisis. Already inflation, economic
contraction, and a shortage of foreign currency are making it difficult
for the GOZ to import basic foods, and the costs of agricultural inputs
are rising. However, the GOZ has initiated discussions to end its monopoly
on procuring fuel for the country, which could alleviate fuel shortages.

WFP reported on November 7 that the shortages of bread, corn, and sugar
are increasing as price controls remain fixed on basic goods.  In
addition, WFP stocks of vegetable oil and pulses, necessary for
maintaining the nutritional balance of the food basket, are in short
supply.

At the Murambinda District Hospital there have been reports of an
increasing number of cases of malnutrition and pellagra, according to WFP.
In Mutasa District, families are reportedly going for more than two days
without a proper meal, while there is a noticeable increase in the
consumption and selling of wild fruits in Masvingo. In addition, recent
USG assessments to rural areas reveal that the nutritional level of
children has worsened over the last three to four months since the
issuance of the September Zimbabwe Emergency Food Security Assessment
report. The report stated that wasting (low weight for height measurement)
among children under five was closest to the upper limit for non- drought
Africa, and stunting (low height for age) was among the highest in the
world. Now it appears that these figures may be approaching even more
critical levels.

In mid-October the GOZ accredited three additional NGOs to act as WFP
implementing partners. However, according to the U.S. Embassy in Zimbabwe,
even though this is a welcomed action by the GOZ, it does not appear that
it will be enough to reduce the increasing levels of malnutrition since
the situation is so severe. In addition, the three organizations, GOAL,
CONCERN, and Catholic Relief Services, are facing logistical challenges
that will likely prevent them from being operational for a number of
weeks.

According to local press reports, an agreement has been reached that would
allow for the resumption of food deliveries in Insiza District in
Matabeleland South. WFP had suspended food distributions in Insiza after
ruling party Zanu-PF activists and officials intimidated its implementing
partner and distributed three MT of food commodities to its supporters. In
addition, on November 6, the GOZ announced that it would allow Save the
Children Federation (SCF/UK) to resume food distribution and supplementary
feeding activities in Binga and Nyaminyami Districts. SCF/UK's food
distributions had been halted for almost two months, following local
government elections in August. Despite this resumption of distributions,
on November 7, at the European Union (EU)-SADC Ministers meeting, the EU
denounced the GOZ's politicization of food aid.

Malawi. During the month of October, WFP distributed food to approximately
2.3 million Malawians, representing more than a 100 percent increase from
September. The GOM has approximately 220,000 MT in corn stocks, so coupled
with the humanitarian food aid, the national food availability situation
has improved significantly this last year. However, these figures mask a
potentially serious food access problem in Malawi.  Anecdotal evidence
suggests that many rural residents lack the purchasing power to buy food
on the market, even at the subsidized prices being offered by GOM outlets.
So far, sales of corn from government stocks have been slow. As a result,
since WFP targets only about 30 percent of the population with its food
distributions, this leaves open the possibility that a significant segment
of the population, who are not receiving food aid, will not have the
resources to meet their household needs.

Zambia. The GRZ's decision to not accept biotech food is putting
increasing pressures on WFP's pipeline. WFP is using recent cash
contributions to purchase non-biotech commodities in the region, while
removing and re- allocating biotech stocks that were already in country.
Due to its resourcing constraints, WFP needs to target distributions in
order to best meet recommendations from the SADC Vulnerability Assessment
Committee.

During the first week of November, WFP distributed U.S.-donated biotech
milled corn to refugees in Zambia since it did not have enough time to
source non-biotech foods following the GRZ's ban on biotech food on
October 29. However, WFP is now only distributing non- biotech food to all
six refugee camps in Zambia, despite the existence of 3,000 MT of
prepositioned biotech corn in the camps, which will be reallocated.

The acting head of the European Commission delegation in Zambia has again
advised the GRZ to make an "informed decision" on biotech food, especially
due to the seriousness of the food crisis. On November 12, the Commission
reiterated to the GRZ that it would not necessarily lose its export market
in the EU if it raises biotech crops. The EU stated it has already
approved five different varieties of biotech corn safe for human
consumption.

Mozambique. WFP plans on continuing its pre-position of commodities in
Inhambane and Tete provinces in November despite the heavy rains that have
hampered road access in remote areas. In Manjacaze, in Gaza Province,
where there have been local press reports of more than 30,000 people
experiencing a severe hunger crisis, WFP is already reaching more than
2,800 families under Food for Work (FFW) programs, and there are plans for
an additional response. However, in general, WFP is moving toward more
direct distribution in Mozambique and less FFW programs as the traditional
lean months begin.

Lesotho. During the week of November 7, WFP distributed 773 MT of corn
meal, 14 MT of pulses, and 28 MT of vegetable oil to approximately 72,000
Lesothoans. WFP is encountering logistical challenges due to the onset of
seasonal rains, which has also hindered beneficiaries from accessing
distribution points.  However, WFP and International Federation of Red
Cross and Red Crescent Societies trucks, operating out of Mafeteng and
Thaba Tseka, have helped ease distribution.

Swaziland. According to WFP's latest report, it has provided an additional
219 MT of food to its implementing partners for distribution in Swaziland.
Also, WFP and its partners have reached consensus on the allocation of
food to additional beneficiaries due to the increased food needs expected
from December onward, as identified by the SADC Vulnerability Assessment.
The NGOs are currently identifying beneficiaries to ensure the best
targeting. The next rolling SADC assessment in Swaziland will be held in
November and December.



USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Since the beginning of 2002, the USG has provided or pledged more than
$276 million in emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the food
security crisis.

In FY 2002, USAID/OFDA provided more than $10 million in non-food programs
that are currently underway in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, and Lesotho.
USAID/OFDA also provided $1 million to WFP to assist with its regional
management and logistics coordination.  USAID/OFDA continues to address
needs in water and sanitation, coordination, nutrition, and health,
particularly preparing for outbreaks of endemic and opportunistic
diseases.

In addition to emergency humanitarian efforts for the food security crisis
in Southern Africa, USAID programs are designed to reduce the risk of
future crises through the Agricultural Initiative to Cut Hunger in Africa.
The objective of the Initiative is to promote a rapid and sustainable
increase in agricultural growth and rural incomes in sub-Saharan Africa by
advancing scientific and technological applications that will raise
agricultural productivity, create agriculture-based enterprises, and
improve the agricultural trade and market systems.

In response to the ongoing HIV/AIDS pandemic in the Southern Africa
region, USAID's Africa Bureau (USAID/AFR) is supporting HIV/AIDS
prevention, control, care, and support initiatives, as well as programs
for HIV/AIDS orphans and vulnerable children throughout the region.
USAID/AFR also supports a regional HIV/AIDS program in Southern Africa
that focuses on regional cross-border activities.

USAID is also sponsoring a SADC Regional Workshop on biotech and food
insecurity in Gaborone, Botswana, in February 2003. Participants will
include technical experts from around the world and policymakers from the
affected countries. The meeting will address the technical and policy
issues related to biotech food aid.



FY 2002 U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
SOUTHERN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY CRISIS

Country*        USG Food Assistance
(From USAID/FFP and USDA)

Lesotho           27,760 MT
Malawi           100,645 MT
Mozambique        19,790 MT
Swaziland         15,242 MT
Zambia            39,100 MT
Zimbabwe         146,906 MT

Region (Country allocation to be finalized)   149,750 MT

Total            499,193 MT


Country*     USG Non-Food Assistance
(From USAID/OFDA)

Lesotho                $20,000
Malawi              $4,640,990
Zambia              $1,538,560
Zimbabwe            $2,925,661
Regional Support    $1,000,000
Total              $10,125,211


SUMMARY OF FY 2002 USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

USAID/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)
$10,125,211

USAID/Office of Food For Peace (FFP)**
$252,609,551

USAID Total
$262,734,762

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Total
$13,294,788

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
$276,029,550

* To see a breakdown in funding for each country, refer to the previous
USAID/DCHA/OFDA Situation Report #3, FY 2003, dated November 1, 2002.

** Note: USAID/FFP value is an estimate. Commodities may have been
reallocated to meet changing needs.


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