U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - Complex Food Security Crisis
Situation Report #5, Fiscal Year (FY) 2003    December 6, 2002


Note: the last situation report was dated November 15, 2002.

BACKGROUND

A number of Southern African countries are currently experiencing food
security crises, due to a combination of adverse climate conditions for
two consecutive growing seasons, mismanagement of grain reserves, and
restrictive government policies that severely inhibit private sector
commerce. During the past production season, unusually dry conditions
extended across much of the region, from southern Zambia eastward to
southern Mozambique, resulting in crop failures and limited production in
many areas. Normally, food stocks carried over from the previous year and
the intra-regional trade of surplus commodities help to offset production
shortfalls. This year, however, regional stocks are exceptionally low, as
they were drawn down to fill the previous year's food shortages, and
surplus commodities within the region are limited. Zimbabwe is facing a
serious humanitarian crisis, with nearly half the population at risk.
Humanitarian food crises also exist in Malawi and Zambia. Poor and
vulnerable households in Swaziland and Lesotho and some parts of
Mozambique also require food assistance. The governments of several
countries have declared national disasters due to actual and anticipated
food shortages, including Malawi (February 27), Lesotho (April 22),
Zimbabwe (April 30), and Zambia (May 28). In July, the United Nations
(U.N.) issued a regional Consolidated Interagency Appeal (CAP) to meet the
food and non-food emergency humanitarian needs in Southern Africa. The
U.N.  appealed for $611 million from donors, including $507 million for
food aid through the U.N. World Food Program's (WFP) Emergency Operation
(EMOP). Since the beginning of 2002, in response to the food security
crisis, the U.S.  Government (USG) has provided or pledged more than $276
million in humanitarian assistance through the U.S.  Agency for
International Development's (USAID) Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP)
and the Office of U.S.  Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), and the
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The majority of the USG
humanitarian assistance has been emergency food relief provided by
USAID/FFP.

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE
POPULATIONS IN NEED: SEPTEMBER 1, 2002 TO MARCH 31, 2003


                                        Maximum Percentage of
              Maximum Number of         Total (Country/Region)
Country       Population in Need (1)    Population in Need (1)

Zimbabwe          6,700,000                  49%
Malawi            3,300,000                  29%
Zambia            2,900,000                  26%
Lesotho             650,000                  30%
Mozambique          590,000                   3%
Swaziland           270,000                  24%
Total            14,400,000                  25%

1 Anticipated populations and food aid needs are based on SADC FANR
assessments released on September 16, 2002. (Numbers are rounded.)

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance provided, to date   $276,029,550
Total USG Food Aid provided, to date, in Metric Tons (MT)   499,493



CURRENT SITUATION

Latest Shipment of U.S. Food Aid to the Region.  To date, the USG has
delivered over 350,000 MT of food assistance to the region. The balance of
approximately 149,000 MT will arrive in the region by the end of February.

Update on the WFP Emergency Operation (EMOP).  WFP has sourced
approximately 64 percent of its EMOP, with approximately 33 percent of the
resources coming from the USG.  USG aid represents approximately 50
percent of the total humanitarian requirements for 2002.

Status of Biotech-Derived Food Aid. The Government of the Republic of
Zambia (GRZ) has maintained its policy of not accepting biotech-derived
food assistance, even if milled. Mozambique and Malawi have expressed
concerns over the environmental effects of biotech food, but are accepting
such food aid as long as it is milled before distribution. However, the
Government of Malawi (GOM)  has publicly stated its intention not to
disrupt the distribution of humanitarian corn if milling is not possible.
Swaziland and Lesotho have continued to accept all relief food aid of
biotech origin, but Lesotho requires milling.

The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) has agreed to accept U.S.-donated corn
under the condition that all whole kernel grain be milled prior to
entering the country to prevent it from being planted. Consequently, WFP
will more than likely mill the USG corn for Zimbabwe in South Africa,
which will cause significant delays in the delivery of food aid.

SADC FANR National Vulnerability Assessments. The Southern Africa
Development Community's Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources
Development Unit (SADC FANR) Vulnerability Assessment Committees are
currently conducting the second round of rolling assessments in each of
the six countries covered by WFP's EMOP. The teams will conclude their
assessments later this month, which will provide an indication of the
latest number of beneficiaries in need.


COUNTRY UPDATES

Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe's Minister of Lands, Agriculture and Rural
Resettlement, Joseph Made, made a surprising announcement on December 1,
when he acknowledged that the GOZ had failed to ensure food security for
the country. Minister Made said Zimbabwe faces a deficit of 13,000 MT of
corn each week since it is unable to import the required 35,000 MT.

Minister Made's announcement came after WFP's Country Director for
Zimbabwe stated that the crisis was approaching its worst period as WFP
lacks sufficient food aid. WFP did not have the resources to meet its
target of three million beneficiaries in 35 districts for November.
However, WFP still aims to distribute food to 5.8 million Zimbabweans in
57 districts by January. The GOZ's import requirements on biotech corn and
its delays in approving additional implementing partners have
significantly hindered distribution efforts. As of November 25, WFP had
distributed almost 14,000 MT of food commodities to 1.1 million
Zimbabweans.

The GOZ's approval of two additional non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
to act as WFP implementing partners should help to improve food
distribution. The three NGOs that were approved by the GOZ in mid- October
are expected to be operational by late December.  The GOZ has also
authorized Save the Children (UK) to resume its food distributions in
Binga District.

WFP food monitors in Zimbabwe report worsening conditions in various
locations, in particular in Mashonaland West, Central Provinces, and
Masvingo. In Masvingo, there are reports that rural families have started
migrating to the city in search of food and employment. Throughout the
country there are limited supplies of corn-sorghum-bulgur, pulses, and
oil, as well as inconsistent access to fuel. During mid-November, food
distributions began for the first time in Nkayi, Matabeleland North, where
food security has been deteriorating as commercial and government cereal
stocks decline.

A USAID/FFP assessment to Matabeleland in early November showed that the
food security situation in Binga and most of Matabeleland North is also
severe.  The households have no remaining food stocks from the harvest and
for several months have been relying on food purchases, food aid and/or
consumption of wild foods.  There was anecdotal evidence that malnutrition
levels have risen, but this could not be confirmed due to the absence of a
systematic collection of data. The assessment found that political
manipulation of food aid appears to be isolated to the situations in
Insiza and Binga. Nevertheless, the GOZ has been able to manipulate and
interfere with food aid in subtler ways through delays in approval of
commodities, restrictions on food aid imports, and control over NGO
registrations and activities.

Local press reports indicate that two people have died of cholera in
Tongwe in Matabeleland South. This is the most recent outbreak since the
one in nearby Masvingo province in August.

The latest food security update on Zimbabwe from the Famine Early Warning
Systems Network (FEWS NET)  stated that only Chiredzi, Chimanimani,
Mberengwa, Insiza, Karbia, and Umzingwane Districts have more than 75
percent of those identified as food insecure receiving assistance. The
outlook looks bleak since at the current rate of imports of 99,500 MT of
corn per month, an additional 650,000 MT of corn could be imported before
March 2003, but this would only meet 73 percent of the monthly corn
requirements. The food security situation has also been exacerbated by the
price controls enacted by the GOZ, which have raised the prices of basic
commodities well above the rate of inflation.

Malawi. WFP's Country Director in Malawi announced that the number of
people in need is expected to rise from 2.3 million to 3.3 million during
December. The last assessment conducted by the SADC FANR reported that the
maximum number of people in need in Malawi would be 3.3 million through
March 31, 2003. SADC FANR will release its latest assessment report on
Malawi later this month. Fortunately WFP's emergency operation in Malawi
has improved because of the addition of four locomotives at the Nacala
port in Mozambique, increasing the amount of food relief that can be
transported to the landlocked country. Four more locomotives are expected
to be added by the end of January, which will allow WFP to transport
33,000 MT monthly.

During the week of November 29, WFP received over 5,700 MT of mixed
commodities for immediate general food distributions and the HIV/AIDS
Assistance to Malnourished Groups program. According to WFP, rural farmers
are planting crops, and the southern and central regions of the country
have received initial rains.  However, the prolonged, soaking rains that
signal the start of planting season have not begun in the central and
northern regions.

According to FEWS NET, farm inputs are readily available in Malawi, except
in the districts of Mulanje, Nsanje, Chikwawa, Dedza, and Nkhataba.
However, even with stable seeds and fertilizer prices, access to them has
been limited by a lack of purchasing power. In its latest report, FEWS NET
also indicated that imports are urgently needed to cover the national food
gap, which stood at 506,800 MT on October 31. Local market corn prices are
on the rise due to increased shortages, but prices generally have remained
lower than last year.

Donors have begun preparing for Malawi's cholera season, which
traditionally occurs between November and April, by providing the GOM with
needed medical supplies and logistical support in the most vulnerable
districts. USAID/OFDA has provided nearly $826,000 to the World Health
Organization for cholera response and prevention and more than $1 million
to UNICEF for emergency nutrition programs to mitigate the impact of the
impending outbreak. The number of new cases has dropped significantly
since April 2002, but some districts reported cholera cases in October.

Zambia. WFP reported that food distribution was slower during the week of
November 29 due to a decreased supply of commodities for its implementing
partners.  Heavy rains also caused delays in food distribution in Chipata,
an area where WFP monitors have reported a dramatic decline in the food
situation. However, WFP expects the pipeline will improve with the
imminent arrival of 22,000 MT of corn. A scheduled shipment of white corn
from Tanzania should further increase food supplies to meet 77 percent of
needs in December. The GRZ has also released funds to the Food Reserve
Agency to buy approximately 29,000 MT of corn in country. In addition,
refugee camps in Zambia have already received a portion of 11,126 MT of
white corn from South Africa.

According to WFP, its implementing partners are under local pressure to
distribute its limited resources to more beneficiaries than planned. In
response, food monitors have initiated discussions with community-based
satellite committees to refine targeting and registration to reach the
most vulnerable people. WFP is also looking for alternative sources of
grain and using cash given by donors.

FEWS NET's latest report on Zambia indicated that the rainy season has
begun, bringing most of the rain to the north but much less to the
southern half of the country. In rural areas in the south, there are
continuing reports of food problems since little food aid was distributed
in November. The urban markets generally have a supply of staple food, but
most large millers expect that after the end of December they will need to
rely on imported corn.  FEWS NET also reported that corn and meal prices
in both urban and rural areas have continued to increase.

A recent USAID/OFDA assessment confirmed that seed distributions by
donor-supported NGOs in rural areas is underway, and seed availability is
widespread.  However, the GRZ and GRZ-supported NGOS are lagging in their
seed distribution efforts. The team reported that it was too early to
assess crop progress and the potential harvest since not all seeds and
inputs had been delivered.  However, the team concluded household food
security will likely continue to decline over the next several months.

An earlier USAID/OFDA assessment in mid-October found that overall the
nutritional status of the affected areas in Zambia is poor but within
acceptable ranges for an emergency food crisis. However, surveys conducted
in September did show a slight increase in global acute and severe acute
malnutrition over the baseline nutrition surveys completed in May and
June. The team noted though that if the food pipeline breaks, a rapid
deterioration of the nutritional situation could ensue since food aid
recipients have not actively conserved their food, and NGOs lack the
capacity to respond effectively.

Mozambique. WFP is currently phasing-in vulnerable group feeding
activities. Its implementing partners, along with local authorities and
WFP food aid monitors, are selecting the most at-risk areas. WFP is also
exploring the possibility of Food for Work activities in nine communities
in Gaza Province.

FEWS NET's latest report on Mozambique indicated that above normal rains
in the central and southern parts of the country at the end of October and
beginning of November, marked the onset of the rainy season. FEWS NET
reported it expects food insecurity in urban areas to increase due to a
number of factors: rapid urbanization, lack of access to land and rural
transfers, high staple prices, relative price changes and availability of
key commodities consumed by the poor, regional dynamics, HIV/AIDS,
unemployment, and declining remittances.

Lesotho. Field reports suggest that the agricultural situation in many
districts of Lesotho is critical. The lack of rain in October and early
November, combined with frost, has negatively affected crop production,
especially for corn, pumpkins, and beans. However, rains late in November
did help with some recovery of summer crops in the lowlands. Projections
indicate that most of the country will remain dry through February,
resulting in lower harvest yields than in 2002. Seed distribution has
begun at some of WFP's distribution points, but large areas of the country
have not planted since farmers are facing shortages of seed and farm
inputs. Many of the seeds that were set aside for the planting season have
already been eaten.

WFP distributed 847 MT of food to approximately 69,400 Lesothoans during
the week of November 29. Due to the projections for next year's harvest,
WFP is expected to extend the current EMOP for Lesotho to July 2004 and
will increase the number of beneficiaries from 455,000 to 700,000. WFP is
also considering prepositioning food at two or three locations to improve
food delivery to remote and inaccessible areas.

Swaziland. WFP distributed more than 300 MT to seven of its implementing
partners during the week of November 29. It also held a workshop with all
of its partner field coordinators to discuss vulnerability and beneficiary
targeting for the month of December. This year's corn harvest is not
looking promising since dry conditions persist.

UNICEF's pilot school feeding program in five primary schools in
Shiselweni and eastern Lubombo regions has indicated a reversal in school
dropout rates. WFP is providing the food for the program, through which
UNICEF hopes to expand to feed 36,000 children in rural areas of
Swaziland.



USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Since the beginning of 2002, the USG has provided or pledged more than
$276 million in emergency humanitarian assistance in response to the food
security crisis.

In FY 2002, USAID/OFDA provided more than $10 million in non-food programs
that are currently underway in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, and Lesotho. As
part of this assistance, USAID/OFDA provided $1 million to WFP to assist
with its regional management and logistics coordination. USAID/OFDA
continues to address needs in water and sanitation, coordination,
nutrition, and health, particularly preparing for outbreaks of endemic and
opportunistic diseases.

In addition to emergency humanitarian efforts for the food security crisis
in Southern Africa, USAID programs are designed to reduce the risk of
future crises through the Agricultural Initiative to Cut Hunger in Africa.
The objective of the Initiative is to promote a rapid and sustainable
increase in agricultural growth and rural incomes in sub-Saharan Africa by
advancing scientific and technological applications that will raise
agricultural productivity, create agriculture-based enterprises, and
improve the agricultural trade and market systems.

In response to the ongoing HIV/AIDS pandemic in the Southern Africa
region, USAID's Africa Bureau (USAID/AFR) is supporting HIV/AIDS
prevention, control, care, and support initiatives, as well as programs
for HIV/AIDS orphans and vulnerable children throughout the region.
USAID/AFR also supports a regional HIV/AIDS program in Southern Africa
that focuses on regional cross-border activities.

USAID is also sponsoring a SADC Regional Workshop on biotech and food
insecurity in Gaborone, Botswana, in February 2003. Participants will
include technical experts from around the world and policymakers from the
affected countries. The meeting will address the technical and policy
issues related to biotech food aid.



FY 2002 U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
SOUTHERN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY CRISIS

Country*
USG Food Assistance
(From USAID/FFP and USDA)

Lesotho                                        27,760 MT
Malawi                                        141,895 MT
Mozambique                                     19,790 MT
Swaziland                                      15,542 MT
Zambia                                         74,500 MT
Zimbabwe                                      217,006 MT
Region (Country allocation to be finalized)     3,000 MT
Total                                         499,493 MT



Country*
USG Non-Food Assistance
(From USAID/OFDA)

Lesotho                $20,000
Malawi              $4,640,990
Zambia              $1,538,560
Zimbabwe            $2,925,661
Regional Support    $1,000,000
Total              $10,125,211



SUMMARY OF FY 2002 USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

USAID/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)	  $10,125,211
USAID/Office of Food For Peace (FFP)**                   $252,609,551
USAID Total                                              $262,734,762

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Total               $13,294,788

TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE                        $276,029,550



* To see a breakdown in funding for each country, refer to the previous
USAID/DCHA/OFDA Situation Report #3, FY 2003, dated November 1, 2002.

** Note: USAID/FFP value is an estimate. Commodities may have been
reallocated to meet changing needs.


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