OCHA Situation Report No. 4
Papua New Guinea (PNG) - Volcanic eruption
24 December 2002


commenced: 5 August 2002

This situation report is based on information provided by OCHA's Regional
Disaster Response Adviser for the Pacific, based in Suva, Fiji.  Sources
include the United Nations Country Team, PNG National Disaster Management
Office (NDMO), University of PNG, Kimbe Vulcanological Observatory,
Emergency Management Australia, and AusAID, notably their field officer in
West New Britain.

The Ongoing Eruption

1.  Although steam and fumes are still being emitted from Mt. Pago's upper
and lower vents, since early November the volcano has settled down and no
ash emissions have been observed recently.  Lava continues to flow slowly
from the northwestern-most vent of the fissure system, creating a
significant lava field within Witori Caldera.  Some volcanic earthquakes
are still being recorded, but overall seismicity is at a low 'normal
background' level for Witori Caldera.  There has been no noticeable ground
deformation in the last month, in contrast to the period between the start
of the eruption and early November, when complex and significant movements
were recorded.

2.  The Mt. Pago Volcano Monitoring Team at the new Kimbe Vulcanological
Observatory (KVO) expects the vapour emission, lava flow, and slow
deformation to continue, and they state that there is no threat from the
current level and nature of eruption.  Its previously dynamic nature and
experience from other similar volcanoes indicate that the character of the
eruption may change, although there are no indications from current data
trends for a major increase in activity.  Small fluctuations in the
eruptive behaviour may take place with little warning, but a change to
more hazardous eruptions is expected to be heralded by various observable
phenomena.


The Emergency Situation

3.  Acting on scientific advice following the lull in volcanic and seismic
activity, in November the West New Britain Provincial Administration began
to encourage most of the 13,000 displaced people to return to their
villages on the Hoskins Peninsula, if these were areas assessed as being
of lower risk. The return was predicated on the ability of the authorities
to evacuate the returnees within 6 hours, using trucks from New Britain
Palm Oil Limited, if this should become necessary.  Most people
accommodated in the 'care centres' accepted this decision and were keen to
return home.

4.  The ongoing eruptions in New Britain, which include Tavurvur Volcano
at Rabaul in the east and Mt. Ulawun as well as Mt. Pago in the west, also
pose a hazard to aviation, necessitating the diversion and cancellation of
many flights.


National Response

5.  Aerial observation of the volcano has been suspended for the present,
owing to financial constraints.  However, remote-sensing instruments are
still in place, enabling continuous monitoring of the threat by staff of
the KVO.  Technicians from Rabaul Vulcanological Observatory (RVO) and
AusAID are currently installing equipment that will telemeter data from a
seismometer and an electronic tilt back to Rabaul in 'real-time', to
enable vulcanologists to monitor from the main observatory in Rabaul. They
have also produced a volcanic hazard map based on three scenarios; for a
large, intermediate, or small-scale eruption in the future.  The map is
designed to assist the Provincial Disaster Committee (PDC) in managing the
current emergency and in establishing longer-term contingency measures.

6.  Whilst the volcano monitoring team, the civil authorities and their
risk management advisers are all highly active in day-to-day management of
the current situation and in contingency planning, they must ensure that
they remain closely coordinated and informed about all issues of mutual
concern, on a continuous basis.  For instance, decision-makers need daily
reports on the level of threat posed by the volcano, as well as
longer-term projections.  Poor passage of information is partly a product
of the disaster management system in the province below the PDC, which
lacks clear organizational structure and where there is insufficient
delegation of authority to managers in the field.

7.  Overall however, the West New Britain Provincial Administration has
done a very creditable job in this emergency; evacuating, resettling,
provisioning up to 12,000 people, with funds and little external support,
especially initially.  It is now interested in having the Red Cross visit
each 'care centre' to ascertain how well they worked in terms of health,
nutrition, sanitation, and other issues.  If this evaluation goes ahead,
the recommendations will inform future emergency preparedness efforts and
help to construct a more effective provincial disaster management system,
based on the lessons learnt.

8.  At national level, the Government has provided the second half of a
PGK 2 million (USD 572,000) grant to the Province. The appointment of a
new director at the NDMO has reinvigorated the Mt. Pago Task Force and
should result in more responsive support to the West New Britain PDC, and
better passage of information to non-governmental and international
actors.  It is also hoped that the some of the managerial wrinkles that
were apparent during recent disasters in PNG will now be ironed out.


International Response

9.  Please refer to the table of international assistance included in OCHA
Situation Report No. 3 on this emergency, dated 27 September 2002.

10.  UNICEF has completed its planned distribution of food and non-food
relief items, direct to the 'care centres'.  UNDP has also successfully
conducted its project to provide a transport service for evacuees between
the 'care centres' and their villages so that they can access their land
for garden produce and bush shelter materials, implemented through the
Catholic Diocese of West New Britain.


Current and Future Needs

11.  Although some food assistance has been made, the main need over the
next three to four months will be for food.  The few who are still
displaced will continue to need rations, and the majority who have
returned to their homes will probably need support until their new gardens
have become productive.  During their 4 month absence in the 'care
centres' the evacuees harvested from their existing gardens without
replanting, partly because they believed that new crops could be poisoned
but also because it was difficult for them to get to their land.  The
Provincial Administration has been advised to verify returnees'
medium-term food needs by surveying their garden areas.

12.  It remains possible that the population on the Hoskins Peninsula
around Mt. Pago may need to be evacuated again, in the near or more
distant future.  In fact, a major eruption may also impact upon additional
communities on Commodore Bay, to the east and northeast of the peninsula,
as in the 1911-17 eruption.  There is thus a need for ongoing contingency
planning by the provincial and national governments, including the
identification and preparation of better 'care centre' locations.
Appropriate agencies including international donors should consider
assisting the authorities in this effort.

13.  OCHA remains in close contact with the office of the UN Resident
Coordinator and the Director of the NDMO in Port Moresby, through its
Regional Disaster Response Adviser.

This  situation report, together with further information on this and other
ongoing  emergencies,  is  also  available  on the OCHA Internet Website at
http://www.reliefweb.int



Telephone: +41-22-91712 34
Fax: +41-22-917 00 23
E-mail: ochagva@un.org

In case of emergency only: Tel. +41-22-917 20 10

Desk Officers:
  Mr. R. Mueller / Mr. S. Nakajima
  Direct Tel. +41-22-917 3131 / 4034

Press contact:
  (GVA)  Ms. Elizabeth Byrs, direct Tel. +41-22-917 2653
  (NYC)  Brian Grogan direct Tel. +1-212-963-1143


distributed by
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Center for International Disaster Information
Volunteers in Technical Assistance
                                          web: www.cidi.org
                                     listserv: www.cidi.org/listsub.htm
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
comments/suggestions/requests to incident@cidi.org