U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOUTHERN AFRICA - Complex Food Security Crisis
Situation Report #6, Fiscal Year (FY) 2003 	December 20, 2002


Note: the last situation report was dated December 6, 2002.

BACKGROUND

A number of Southern African countries are currently experiencing food
security crises, due to a combination of adverse climate conditions for
two consecutive growing seasons, mismanagement of grain reserves, and
restrictive government policies that severely inhibit private sector
commerce. During the past production season, unusually dry conditions
extended across much of the region, from southern Zambia eastward to
southern Mozambique, resulting in crop failures and limited production in
many areas. Normally, food stocks carried over from the previous year and
the intra-regional trade of surplus commodities help to offset production
shortfalls. This year, however, regional stocks are exceptionally low, as
they were drawn down to fill the previous year's food shortages, and
surplus commodities within the region are limited. Zimbabwe is facing a
serious humanitarian crisis, with nearly half the population at risk.
Humanitarian food crises also exist in Malawi and Zambia. Poor and
vulnerable households in Swaziland and Lesotho and some parts of
Mozambique also require food assistance. The governments of several
countries have declared national disasters due to actual and anticipated
food shortages, including Malawi (February 27), Lesotho (April 22),
Zimbabwe (April 30), and Zambia (May 28). In July, the United Nations
(U.N.) issued a regional Consolidated Interagency Appeal (CAP) to meet the
food and non-food emergency humanitarian needs in Southern Africa. The
U.N.  appealed for $611 million from donors, including $507 million for
food aid through the U.N. World Food Program's (WFP) Emergency Operation
(EMOP). From the beginning of 2002 to present, in response to the food
security crisis, the U.S. Government (USG) has provided or pledged more
than $278 million in humanitarian assistance through the U.S. Agency for
International Development's (USAID) Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP)
and the Office of U.S.  Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), and the
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The majority of the USG
humanitarian assistance has been emergency food relief provided by
USAID/FFP.

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE
POPULATIONS IN NEED: SEPTEMBER 1, 2002 TO MARCH 31, 2003

Country          Maximum Number of         Maximum Percentage of
                 Population in Need (1)    Total (Country/Region)
                                           Population in Need (1)

Zimbabwe          6,700,000                       49%
Malawi            3,300,000                       29%
Zambia            2,900,000                       26%
Lesotho             650,000                       30%
Mozambique          590,000                        3%
Swaziland           270,000                       24%
Total            14,400,000                       25%

1 Anticipated populations and food aid needs are based on SADC FANR
assessments released on September 16, 2002. (Numbers are rounded.)

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance provided, to date   $278,529,550
Total USG Food Aid provided, to date, in Metric Tons (MT)   499,493


CURRENT SITUATION

Latest Shipment of U.S. Food Aid to the Region.  To date, the USG has
delivered over 350,000 MT of food assistance to the region. The balance of
approximately 149,000 MT will arrive in the region by the end of February.
The Golden Bay, with 7,000 MT of bulk corn, docked this week in Durban.
This is the first shipment of commodities for the NGO consortium, C-SAFE.

Update on the WFP Emergency Operation (EMOP).  WFP has sourced
approximately 67 percent of its EMOP, with approximately 50 percent of
those resources coming from the USG.  USG aid represents approximately 50
percent of the total humanitarian requirements for 2002.  WFP has
distributed more than 220,000 MT of commodities in the southern Africa
region during this crisis.

Status of Biotech-Derived Food Aid. The Government of the Republic of
Zambia (GRZ) has maintained its policy of not accepting biotech-derived
food assistance, even if milled. Mozambique and Malawi have expressed
concerns over the environmental effects of biotech food, but are accepting
such food aid as long as it is milled before distribution. However, the
Government of Malawi (GOM)  has publicly stated its intention not to
disrupt the distribution of humanitarian corn if milling is not possible.
Swaziland and Lesotho have continued to accept all relief food aid of
biotech origin, but Lesotho requires milling.

The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) had agreed to accept U.S.-donated corn
under the condition that all whole kernel grain be milled prior to
entering the country to prevent it from being planted. However, the GOZ
has recently shown some leniency by allowing WFP to mill an additional
17,500 MT of USG maize in-country and approving the use of an additional
mill.

SADC FANR National Vulnerability Assessments. The Southern Africa
Development Community's Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources
Development Unit (SADC FANR) Vulnerability Assessment Committees are
currently conducting the second round of rolling assessments in each of
the six countries covered by WFP's EMOP. The teams will conclude their
assessments shortly, which will provide an indication of the latest number
of beneficiaries in need.


COUNTRY UPDATES

Zimbabwe. Following on an assessment conducted in August 2002, the
Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) conducted another
assessment of food security throughout the country between December 2 and
December 6. Preliminary results of the assessment show a deteriorating
food security situation and increasingly stretched coping mechanisms, such
as selling livestock at reduced prices and consuming wild fruits and
roots, often resulting in illness from poisonous or improperly prepared
foods. Many villagers are also reportedly turning to stealing and
prostitution to survive. Food security in most rural areas remains
critical as supplies from the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) remain erratic,
inadequate to meet consumption requirements, and too expensive for many
people. In urban areas, inflation rates are currently estimated at 144
percent and rising.

Although the rains have started in most parts of the country, the
disruption of commercial farms, insufficient seed distribution, and the
delayed rainfall have resulted in a small percentage of arable land being
planted.  Government maize seed distribution has been insufficient to meet
demand and more people are relying on food distributions. Maize available
on the black market costs more than 10 times the official price and
therefore out of the reach of 90 percent of village populations. There are
also allegations of corruption in the government's distributions,
including officials selling the maize on the black market.

Despite the increased reliance on food aid among vulnerable populations in
Zimbabwe, WFP has only 7,000 MT of cereals to meet the monthly requirement
of 48,476 MT for Zimbabwe.  As a result, WFP has responded by providing
full rations only to beneficiaries who have not received any other rations
during the previous month. Beneficiaries who have already received rations
will be given a half ration. The low cereal stocks are partly due to
delayed government decisions regarding the milling of biotech-derived
maize grain in the country.  Additionally, according to FEWS NET, Zimbabwe
could run out of wheat by the end of February without the import of
240,000 MT. Analysts are warning that wheat shortages may be exacerbated
by the tendency of households to use wheat as a substitute for maize.

A national strike called on December 10 to protest food and fuel shortages
was largely unsuccessful. Less than 30 percent of workers participated in
the strike by staying at home. According to observers, poor organization
and fear of losing jobs were the cause of the strike's failure.

Malawi. Low purchasing power has kept the demand for maize low in Malawi.
However, maize milling, jointly coordinated by WFP and the GOM, is
expected to begin in mid-December. Approximately 40,000 MT are scheduled
to be processed in eight mills. WFP plans to target 2.3 million
beneficiaries in December and 2.8 million in January under its EMOP.

Zambia. In response to an anticipated shortfall of 20,000 MT of food
commodities in December, the GRZ has agreed to provide at least 23,000 MT
of grain to WFP for distribution, although some reports state that the
GRZ's pledge could be closer to 53,000 MT by the end of March. The U.K.'s
Department for International Development (DfiD) has agreed to cover the
costs of transporting the grain. As a result of the GRZ's contribution,
WFP predicts that grain distribution targets for December will be met.
Severe shortages of complementary commodities such as oil, beans, and corn
soya blend exist. WFP's ability to reach all targeted beneficiaries was
threatened by the GRZ's rejection of biotech food aid, and the removal of
all biotech food commodities currently in Zambia is underway.  WFP is
working to ensure the availability of storage space for the replacement
maize coming into the country.

The food security situation is still dire in many parts of the country,
and many Zambians are reportedly consuming seeds intended for planting.
The Zambian Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) has responded by encouraging
farmers to replant failed crops despite the lack of rain. Severe
conditions are also reported in Chama District, where granaries stand
empty and the mango season has ended. According to WFP, Zambia needs
224,000 MT of grain to meet needs until March. Despite WFP's pledge of
82,000 MT, plus the GRZ's pledge of more than 20,000 MT, the country will
continue to face a grain deficit of 120,000 MT.

In response to the country's critical dependence on maize, civil society
groups, including 90 churches and NGOs, in Zambia are attempting to raise
$60 million to buy 300,000 MT of surplus cassava in the northern region
for distribution to areas experiencing severe food shortages. According to
a representative of the National Association of Peasants and Small Scale
Farmers in Zambia, cassava is drought resistant and easier to grow than
maize.

Mozambique. November plantings have been negatively impacted by a lack of
rain in the southern and central regions of Mozambique. Without rain in
the upcoming weeks, most of the early planting may be lost, and, according
to WFP, malnutrition is already increasing in Tete province. The
Government of Mozambique estimated that 60,000 hectares produced less than
10 percent of their normal output this year as a result of the drought.
However, the transport of food aid continued by locomotive between Nacala
and Malawi. Since November 22, approximately 4,000 MT of maize was moved
along the Nacala corridor.

Lesotho. Lesotho's Ministry of Agriculture reported that crops were
planted in an additional 33,975 acres, bringing the total area planted to
248,796 acres. This represents only 34 percent of the country's total
arable land (726,000 acres). Planting in land that has already been
ploughed is also very low. According to WFP, less than 50 percent of the
ploughed land in Lesotho has been planted as a result of the limited
availability of machinery and poor soil conditions, despite a commitment
by the Government of Lesotho to leave no land unplanted.  Local district
officers have also complained of slow deliveries of required seeds and
fertilizers. Compounding the country's agricultural situation,
unseasonable frost has damaged new plantings.

Swaziland. According to a senior officer in the Early Warning Unit in
Swaziland's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), this year's maize crop is
expected to fail as a result of poor rains and reduced purchasing power
for seeds due to last year's crop failure and inflation. The MOA estimates
that less than 30 percent (20,000 hectares) of the land normally used for
maize production has been planted.

The water situation in Swaziland is also increasingly bleak. The Swaziland
Water Service Corporation (SWSC) has reported that without rains, water
rationing will be required beginning in January. According to a
representative from the National Meteorology Department, El Nino will
likely continue to suppress rainfall in the coming months. However, even
with improved rainfall, the fact that only 40 percent of the land has been
ploughed combined with the shortage of tractors would result in further
delays while the land is prepared for planting.

The outlook for Swaziland's bean crop is more promising. With improved
rainfall in December and January, beans could be planted in February,
according to the MOA. However, reduced purchasing power would still pose a
major problem, as beans are more expensive than maize.

The MOA plans to improve the country's food security by promoting the
cultivation of drought resistant crops and building an irrigation
infrastructure. While the Ministry doubts that farmers and consumers in
Swaziland would accept cassava as an alternative to maize, sweet potatoes
may be a potential alternative.


USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

>From the beginning of 2002 to present, the USG has provided or pledged
more than $278 million in emergency humanitarian assistance in response to
the food security crisis.

In FY 2002, USAID/OFDA provided more than $10 million in non-food programs
that are currently underway in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, and Lesotho. As
part of this assistance, USAID/OFDA provided $1 million to WFP to assist
with its regional management and logistics coordination.

In FY 2003, USAID/OFDA provided $2 million to support the NGO Consortium
Cooperatively Guarding Women's, Infants', and Children's Nutrition Status
Supplementary Feeding in Malawi (CoGuard).  USAID/OFDA also provided
$250,000 to support farm surveys and supplementary feeding programs for
orphans and vulnerable populations in Zimbabwe.

USAID/OFDA continues to address needs in water and sanitation,
coordination, nutrition, and health, particularly preparing for outbreaks
of endemic and opportunistic diseases.

In addition to emergency humanitarian efforts for the food security crisis
in Southern Africa, USAID programs are designed to reduce the risk of
future crises through the Agricultural Initiative to Cut Hunger in Africa.
The objective of the Initiative is to promote a rapid and sustainable
increase in agricultural growth and rural incomes in sub-Saharan Africa by
advancing scientific and technological applications that will raise
agricultural productivity, create agriculture-based enterprises, and
improve the agricultural trade and market systems.

In response to the ongoing HIV/AIDS pandemic in the Southern Africa
region, USAID's Africa Bureau (USAID/AFR) is supporting HIV/AIDS
prevention, control, care, and support initiatives, as well as programs
for HIV/AIDS orphans and vulnerable children throughout the region.
USAID/AFR also supports a regional HIV/AIDS program in Southern Africa
that focuses on regional cross-border activities.

USAID is also sponsoring a SADC Regional Workshop on biotech and food
insecurity in Gaborone, Botswana, in February 2003. Participants will
include technical experts from around the world and policymakers from the
affected countries. The meeting will address the technical and policy
issues related to biotech food aid.



FY 2002-2003
U.S. GOVERNMENT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
SOUTHERN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY CRISIS

Country*          USG Food Assistance FY 2002
                  (From USAID/FFP and USDA)

Lesotho               27,760 MT
Malawi               141,895 MT
Mozambique            19,790 MT
Swaziland             15,542 MT
Zambia                74,500 MT
Zimbabwe             217,006 MT
Region (Country allocation to be finalized)   3,000 MT
Total                499,493 MT


Country           USG Non-Food Assistance FY 2002
                  (From USAID/OFDA)

Lesotho                  $270,000
Malawi                 $4,640,990
Zambia                 $1,538,560
Zimbabwe               $2,925,661
Regional Support       $1,000,000
Total                 $10,375,211


Country        USG Non-Food Assistance FY 2003
               (From USAID/OFDA)
Malawi            $2,000,000
Zimbabwe            $250,000
Total             $2,250,000




SUMMARY OF FY 2002 - FY 2003 USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

USAID/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)	  $12,625,211
USAID/Office of Food For Peace (FFP)*    $252,609,551
USAID Total    $265,234,762
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Total    $13,294,788
TOTAL USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE     $278,529,550

* Note: USAID/FFP value is an estimate. Commodities may have been
reallocated to meet changing needs.


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