IRIN
PAKISTAN: Fears of widespread drought
8 May 2006


[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United 
Nations]

ISLAMABAD, 8 May (IRIN) - A severe drought is likely in Pakistan in the 
coming months, weather experts at the national meteorological department 
in the capital, Islamabad, warned on Monday, with reservoir levels in 
some areas already dangerously low after a dry winter and little rain 
expected in the next two months.

"Moderate drought conditions have already developed in Balochistan and 
lower Sindh [provinces], which are likely to worsen in the coming months 
with the possibility of spreading to other parts of the country," Dr 
Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, head of the meteorological department, said.

Pakistan received 40 percent less rainfall last winter than average 
levels, while snowfall in many northern areas was also 20-25 percent 
below normal, according to the weather office.

"This indicates the likelihood of a severe water shortage in the country 
during the next few months," Chaudhry noted.

At present, Pakistan is classed as a "water-stressed" nation, having 
about 1,200 cubic metres of water per capita for a population of over 
160 million. A combination of factors, including a natural water 
shortage, high population growth and inappropriate management, is adding 
to the country's severe water crisis.

If drought comes, provincial irrigation departments would have a hard 
time achieving sowing targets for cotton, sugarcane and rice in these 
hot and dry conditions. At the same time, it would also adversely affect 
livestock, horticulture and human lives throughout the country, say 
experts.

"Cotton sowing, which is in progress, has faced a near 35 percent water 
shortage [this season] due to the ongoing dry spell since February, and 
it has also brought the summer season on early," said Muhammad Khalid 
Idrees Rana, a research officer at the country's leading water 
regulatory authority, Indus River System Authority (IRSA), based in 
Islamabad.

Experts are stressing the weather will always be unpredictable and that 
better use of existing water needs to be explored. "Only efficient 
management of available water resources at field, household and 
institutional level can avert the emerging drought crisis," Dr Ghulam 
Rasool, agricultural researcher at the meteorological centre said.

Over 2 million people, mostly from the southern provinces of Sindh and 
Balochistan, were affected by severe drought in Pakistan from 1998 to 
2001.


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