OCHA Situation Report
Somalia: Floods
20 November 2006


Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

Background on current situation

The forecast for the coming days is for moderate rains inside Somalia. 
SWALIM reports that El Nino conditions are expected to strengthen 
between the end of November and the end of December, raising chances of 
increased rainfall, particularly over the Jubas. Forecasts are still for 
the worst flooding in a fifty-year return period in some regions (Lower 
Shabelle, Beletweyne) and for the worst in a ten-year return period in 
others (reflecting river levels rather than amount of rainfall). It is 
estimated that to date 300,000 people have been affected by the flooding 
on both Shabelle and Juba rivers. According to an AFP report, nine 
people have been killed by crocodiles and the death toll from the last 
three weeks of flooding is an estimated 52.

Coordination is ongoing with local authorities. In Mogadishu, the 
authorities have established a flood committee, which is now meeting 
with aid agencies. Future operational concern must be focused on the 
Jubas. The need for prepositioning is critical, before more roads become 
impassable, and water and sanitation interventions are a priority. 
Several agencies have agreed to undertake an assessment in Jilib and 
Jamame pending availability of boats and vehicles. Meanwhile, WFP 
conducted an aerial survey over the weekend from south of Beletweyne to 
Jowhar (landing at Jowhar airstrip), where local authorities promised 
unconditional cooperation. WFP plans to do an aerial survey of the Juba 
River on 21 November. In addition (conditions permitting), an ad hoc 
aerial survey planned for Thursday with the HC will fly over the 
Shabelle and Juba rivers to assess the situation. SC-UK has one caravan 
available in Nairobi that could be made available for aerial surveys.

Developments along the Shabelle River

Beletweyne (Hiran) - SC-UK estimates that in the coming days, 60% of 
households will be covered for NFIs distributed by SC-UK, UNICEF, SRCS 
and partners.

Bulo Burti (Hiran) - River levels are rising rapidly at Bulo Burti 
(downstream from Beletweyne). There are reports of it nearing the bottom 
of the bridge; also, reports of villages flooded downstream.

Jowhar (M/Shabelle) - River levels said to be stable. So far, Jowhar has 
not suffered as badly as feared following flooding in Beletweyne. 
However, there are reports of more breakages upstream of Jowhar. 
Conditions in Jowhar may deteriorate in the coming days, following 
rising water levels in Bulo Burti.

Kurtunwarey (L/Shabelle) - Remains the most affected area in the region. 
COSV reports that 12 villages (15,000 people) were affected and/or 
displaced. COSV has distributed 6000 ITNs in 11 villages of Kurtunwarey 
district and is conducting measles immunization in Merka, Qoryoley and 
Kurtunwarey.

Mogadishu - WFP began distribution of 600mt of food in various districts 
of Mogadishu on 18 November. WHO has prepositioned health supplies for 
10,000 people in Mogadishu for 3 months.

Developments along the Juba River

Middle / Lower Juba - The situation is said to be deteriorating in 
Buale, Jilib, Jamame, Dobley, Afmadow and Marere, though quantitative 
data is not yet available. In Jamame, an estimated 16 villages are 
flooded.


Upcoming Coordination Meetings

   Wednesday 10.30 at ICRC - Watson cluster
   Thursday 2.30 at SSS - Health cluster
   Friday 10.30 at OCHA - Flood Working Group

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