Ex-Yugoslavia: Civil [OFDA-05: 05-Sep-96]

       U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

         BUREAU FOR HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE (BHR)
   OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)

         FORMER YUGOSLAVIA - Complex Emergency

Situation Report #5, Fiscal Year (FY) 1996     September 5, 1996

Note:  The last BHR/OFDA situation report was dated June 5, 1996.


Background

Since the formal signing of the Dayton peace agreement in Paris on
December 14, 1995, military implementation of the agreement continues on
schedule and a number of civilian projects have become operational this
summer.  These projects are designed to rehabilitate infrastructure and
assist the repatriation of those forced out of their homes by the
protracted conflict.  Although some refugees and displaced persons (DPs)
have begun to return to their homes in Bosnia-Herzegovina (B-H), larger
population movements are not expected to take place until security and the
availability of housing and infrastructure services improve.  Some
refugees, DPs, and commercial convoys moving across the Inter-Entity
Boundary Line (IEBL) which separates B-H's Muslim-Croat Federation from
the Bosnian Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) are meeting resistance
from local authorities and angry residents.  Ethnic minorities are often
harassed or intimidated in areas where they have remained.  Local and
international relief agencies working in the region are responding to the
immediate and long-term needs of refugees and DPs by providing food,
medicines, clothing, hygiene items, and repairing war-damaged houses and
public buildings.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) Implementation Force
(IFOR), which includes 18,000 U.S. troops based in Tuzla, is scheduled to
begin withdrawing by the end of the year.  The United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is the lead humanitarian organization in
the former Yugoslavia for the resettlement and repatriation of refugees
and DPs.  While the World Food Program (WFP) continues to provide the bulk
of all humanitarian food assistance throughout the region, it is now
taking responsibility for moving the food, a role previously held by
UNHCR.  In conjunction with the efforts of UNHCR and WFP, the
International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) are addressing the ongoing humanitarian needs of the
region's displaced and vulnerable populations.  The Office of the High
Representative (OHR), headed by Carl Bildt, is coordinating civilian
implementation of the Dayton peace agreement and working on freedom of
movement issues.


Numbers Affected

According to UNHCR/Sarajevo, the beneficiary population throughout the
region is 3,162,800.  The World Bank reports that the war in the former
Yugoslavia has resulted in an estimated 250,000 people dead, 200,000
wounded, and has forced over 2.5 million Bosnians into refugee and
internally displaced status.  Of these 2.5 million war affected, some 1.2
million displaced persons are in B-H.  Approximately 600,000 refugees are
currently in neighboring countries, most of whom are in Croatia and
Serbia-Montenegro.  In addition, at least 700,000 refugees are scattered
throughout western and central Europe, with the largest number in Germany.
Although UNHCR initially expected about 870,000 displaced Bosnians to
return home or settle in another area this year, the pace of repatriation
and return has been slow.  UNHCR reports that an estimated 100,000
Bosnians have returned to their homes, most of them spontaneously, since
the signing of the Dayton peace agreement.  During the same time period,
another 90,000 Bosnians have been displaced.

Total U.S. Government (USG) Humanitarian
Assistance FY 1996 (to date) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $300,378,288


Current Situation

Although the war throughout the former Yugoslavia ended in December 1995,
and civilian rehabilitation efforts are underway, the availability of
housing and resources necessary to facilitate the return of refugees and
DPs remains limited.  Displaced populations continue to live in collective
centers, overcrowded private accommodations, or abandoned and damaged
homes.  In many instances, these DPs are living in sub-standard conditions
and are dependent on humanitarian assistance for their continued survival.
Shelter repair in B-H remains a long-term priority need.  To address this
need, BHR/OFDA through its Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) is
implementing a $25 million Emergency Shelter Repair Program in B-H.

Although the number of returnees has been less than anticipated, UNHCR's
projects, which provide buses crossing the IEBL and materials for
"self-help" housing repair, aim to enhance freedom of movement and
repatriation efforts in B-H and enable refugees and DPs to return to their
places of origin.  Since mid-May, UNHCR has encouraged returnees to visit
their homes and to meet with relatives and friends before relocating.

However, security and freedom of movement continue to be difficult issues.
A Muslim who had returned to Doboj to visit his home was found murdered
shortly thereafter, and the bridge across the IEBL in Doboj was recently
blown up by unknown entities, possibly in an attempt to obstruct freedom
of movement.  Bus trips for returnees occasionally have been aborted
because of possible hostile demonstrations and harassment.  UNHCR buses
also have been used to transport people across the IEBL during the daytime
to make repairs on their damaged homes.

Revitalizing the economy and providing jobs are also major issues being
addressed by civilian implementors.  According to a recent WFP/UNHCR/FAO
(U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization) food assessment of B-H,
approximately three of every four people in B-H are unemployed.  Regional
unemployment rates are staggering:  East Mostar - 88%; Republika Srpska -
77%; Bihac - 76%; Tuzla - 71%; Banja Luka - 63%; and Sarajevo - 56%.
Overall production is about 10% of pre-war levels.  The average personal
income throughout B-H is about $500 a year, a quarter of what it was
before the war.  The demobilization of between 200,000 - 300,000 soldiers
will increase these unemployment figures.

A world donor's conference in Brussels on April 12-13 raised pledges of
reconstruction aid for Bosnia of nearly $2 billion for 1996, including
$281.7 million from the United States.  The World Bank set an
international target of $5.1 billion for the next four years to assist in
rebuilding B-H.  Of this total, $3.7 billion will go to the Muslim-Croat
Federation and $1.4 billion to the RS.


Political/Military Situation

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) announced
on June 25 that elections in B-H will proceed as planned on September 14.
Radovan Karadzic relinquished his positions as President of Republika
Srpska and head of the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) as a result of
intense diplomatic efforts by U.S. envoys, including Richard Holbrooke.
Although there is a overall calm in B-H, IFOR and the International Police
Task Force (IPTF) report daily incidents involving gunfire, harassment of
minorities, or possible demonstrations.

OSCE predicts that some 2.9 million people may vote in the September 14
national elections.  Of this total, some 200,000 - 600,000 refugees and
500,000 DPs are registered to vote, but the numbers that may cross the
IEBL to vote cannot be estimated.  However, the OSCE announced on August
27 that municipal elections throughout B-H would be postponed because of
voter registration irregularities.  A new date for holding these local
elections is being discussed.

Although there is hope that the national elections will result in the
emergence of a unified, multi-ethnic B-H, recent elections in Mostar
demonstrate that this process will be difficult.  The Bosnian Croat
refusal to accept the results of the June 30 local elections in Mostar
jeopardized the initial attempt at Muslim-Croat unification within a joint
city administration.  On August 6, an agreement was approved by Mostar's
Muslims and Croats that will allow for a diversified city council with a
Croat appointed as mayor.

As IFOR and relief organizations gain access to previously contested areas
of B-H and Croatia, land mines, unexploded ammunition, and booby-traps
pose a significant threat to life and limit freedom of movement.
Moreover, the revival of local agricultural production, utility systems,
and repair of damaged houses may be restricted until many of these
ordnances are located and destroyed.  According to the U.N.'s Mine Action
Center (MAC), there are an estimated 6 million land mines laid in B-H and
Croatia.  NGOs are being faced with the problem of demining when working
in frontline areas.  In order to remove the mines, the NGOs often are
relying on private donors for funding which adds to overall project costs.


Relief Efforts

USAID's $25 million Emergency Shelter Repair Program (ESRP) is providing
basic repairs to 2,500 badly-damaged homes in war-affected areas.  Sixty
percent of the homes targeted for repair are located in villages in or
contiguous to the U.S. area of responsibility of NATO's IFOR.  To date,
the ESRP has completed repairs on 487 of the 1,982 homes under repair.

The ESRP is helping to accelerate the return of approximately 10,000 or
more DPs from temporary places of refuge in towns and municipalities to
their own homes in villages damaged during the war.  To complement the
ESRP, USAID/DART is also implementing small municipal infrastructure
projects to make the ESRP villages more viable.  These projects will
restore previously-existing water pipelines and electrical systems, as
well as repairing schools and health clinics.  The ESRP is expected to
provide more than 2,000 short-term jobs for the local population,
including demobilized soldiers.

USAID/DART facilitates coordination among the eight NGOs working on the
ESRP, on issues such as contractors, procurement, and repair standards.
Program information is also shared with other aid agencies implementing
shelter/housing programs and related activities, ensuring that efforts are
complementary and not duplicative.

In addition, UNHCR is implementing, through the United Methodist Committee
on Relief (UMCOR) in Federation areas and local authorities in the RS, a
$30 million "self-help" housing repair program in B-H.  UNHCR is providing
homeowners with up to $3,000 worth of construction materials and fixtures
to repair their homes.  Those participating are given sufficient materials
to render habitable 300 - 400 square feet of space for a family of five.
Unlike USAID's ESRP, UNHCR does not provide for the repair of heavily
damaged houses.

An interagency WFP/UNHCR/FAO food needs assessment mission, accompanied by
observers from USAID and the European Community Humanitarian Office
(ECHO), took place in April.  The interagency mission, the first since
1994, assessed the levels of need and the categories of beneficiaries in
all of B-H, including the RS.  The mission concluded that the political
instability as well as the very complex economic reconstruction process
will not allow for significant national and household food security in the
short-term.

Future food assistance must focus primarily on meeting the needs of the
most vulnerable and improving the targeting of food aid to pensioners,
those dependent on institutional feeding (including collective centers,
public kitchens, and health institutions), vulnerable minorities, needy
DPs and returnees, and single-headed households.  A target volume of
23,000 MT per month will be necessary for the rest of 1996 to provide for
these groups in need.  Food availability will be essential for social
stability and will assist the return and repatriation process and the need
for political integration.


Situation by Region

Gorazde Enclave:  Although Gorazde's food supplies are improving, WFP's
convoys continue to bring food assistance into the enclave for people
unable to afford market prices.  On June 29, IFOR stopped running thrice
weekly convoy escorts.  Since that time, convoys have been attacked by
local gangs throwing rocks, notably in the area of Rogatica.  IFOR and
IPTF are working with NGOs and U.N. agencies to ensure a greater level of
security when traveling to and from Gorazde.

With the installation of a one megawatt generator, electricity is now
available in many parts of Gorazde for about 12 hours per day.  On a visit
in mid-July, USAID/DART members observed that the makeshift water-driven
electric generators set up on the Drina River during the war have been
removed.  Local authorities are attempting to negotiate access to the
Visegrad power station in the RS, but so far efforts have been
unsuccessful.

The water supply, however, has not yet been restored.  Negotiations
between RS and Federation authorities to provide water to Gorazde from the
pumping station in Cajnice, RS, remain in a political stalemate.  As an
interim measure, ICRC is working to render an existing reservoir water
system operable for three to four hours every other day.  BHR/OFDA-funded
UMCOR is prepared to conduct the necessary repairs to the water pipes
between Cajnice and Gorazde once the political issues have been resolved.
Action Contre la Faim/France (ACF/F) is negotiating with local officials
to develop an alternative water project in the area.

A recent field assessment by USAID/DART officers showed that conditions in
Gorazde town are gradually improving.  The badly-damaged city hospital is
being repaired, a gas station has reopened, and local vehicles and taxis
are again on the road.  Shelter projects are also underway to allow DPs to
return to their homes from collective centers and overcrowded private
accommodations.  ACF/F is currently repairing over 100 homes in the
Gorazde area under USAID's ESRP.

Sarajevo:  There have been heightened incidents of harassment and
intimidation against some of the 8,000 Serbs that have remained in the
former Serb suburbs of Sarajevo after the February/March transfer of
authority to the Federation.  On August 1, two Serbs visiting their homes
in Vogosca were attacked by a crowd of more than 100 Muslims, wielding
rocks and sticks.  The situation was only defused with the arrival of IFOR
troops.  Also, the international relief community has noted with concern
that a large influx of Srebrenica and Zepa DPs have moved into Sarajevo's
former-Serb suburbs, often occupying abandoned Serb homes.  These new
occupants are acting as an organized hostile faction against Serb
minorities.  Additional incidents could hinder Serbs from returning to
their homes in Sarajevo and may hamper the goal of a re-unified city.

NGOs and international organizations are implementing programs to rebuild
the city and improve daily life, although water and electricity continue
to be rationed.  These programs include USAID/DART's assistance in
repairing health clinics and USAID/Bosnia's window glazing program, which
is restoring glass to homes and public buildings.  UNHCR/Sarajevo reports
that the last of Sarajevo's collective centers, housing 250 DPs, will
close within the next two months as alternative housing is found to
accommodate the remaining DPs.  On August 15, Sarajevo's airport was
reopened to commercial civilian traffic after Secretary of State
Christopher's rededication.

Republika Srpska (RS):  Humanitarian needs throughout the RS continue to
be significant, notably following an influx of more than 60,000 DPs from
the former-Serb suburbs of Sarajevo into eastern RS during early 1996.
Much of this population still lives under dire circumstances in poorly
maintained collective centers, overcrowded private accommodations, and
abandoned and destroyed homes.  The presence of international relief
agencies working in the eastern region of the RS has increased
considerably over recent months, although significant requirements remain.

BHR/OFDA is funding ACF/F to provide emergency hygiene and sanitation
commodities to collective centers, while UNHCR, through OXFAM, is
conducting emergency repairs to the collective centers' infrastructure.
There is concern for the long-term situation of the DPs, as suitable
housing is in short supply and there is no viable plan for their
resettlement.  Most remain unwilling to return to their homes in the
Federation.

Humanitarian needs in western RS are being addressed by the sizeable
number of NGOs who recently moved into that area, and efforts continue to
focus on the needs of the vulnerable populations and DPs.  Additionally,
the forced evictions of ethnic minorities by Serb DPs in the Banja Luka
region has gained increased international attention, as the evictions have
been accompanied by violence and the evicted have now become displaced.

Food security in western RS is reported as stable.  WFP states that it
will eventually begin to reduce general distributions to provide greater
targeted assistance to the truly vulnerable.  The recently-opened WFP
office in Banja Luka has been vandalized several times.  International
organizations working in western RS continue to emphasize that a greater
level of economic and development assistance needs to begin in order to
jump-start the local economy, providing a source of income to the local
population, and eventually reducing the population's need for emergency
aid.

According to the OSCE, some local Bosnian Serb officials are making
humanitarian assistance contingent on where displaced persons intend to
vote in the upcoming national elections.  In an advisory opinion, the OSCE
stated that DPs who have indicated that they will be voting by absentee
ballot are being denied humanitarian assistance in their present locale,
while those stating that they will vote in the RS have been eligible to
receive assistance.  UNHCR/Sarajevo officials report that Prijedor and
Doboj are two areas where DPs have been required to produce voter
registration forms before receiving soup kitchen distributions.

Croatia:  On August 1, the Kupljensko camp near Vojnic, Croatia was closed
by the Government of Croatia with the assistance of UNHCR.  An
International Rescue Committee (IRC) spokesperson reported that all but a
few of the 1,500 remaining Kupljensko residents were transferred to the
Gasinci camp in eastern Croatia over a three-day period.  The Gasinci
camp's population has increased to some 5,700, even though the camp can
only realistically support between 3,000 - 3,500 residents.  NGO efforts
are underway to provide more latrines and a greater supply of potable
water.  Approximately 800 people from the Gasinci camp are being processed
for resettlement in the United States or another third country.


Total USG FY 1996 Assistance

In FY 1996 (to date), the USG has provided $300,378,288 in assistance to
the former Yugoslavia through USAID, Department of State, and Department
of Defense (DOD) programs.  The following sections provide detail on this
funding.


USAID/BHR/OFDA FY 1996 Assistance

To date, BHR/OFDA has obligated a total of $25,787,386 to address the
emergency humanitarian needs (food, health, water/sanitation) of
vulnerable groups in the region through its NGO implementing partners,
such as CARE; Save the Children; UMCOR; Mercy Corps International; Feed
the Children; American Refugee Committee; International Medical Corps;
Equilibre; and Premiere Urgence.  The total amount obligated includes
Rapid Response Fund activities, which are designed to quickly address
unanticipated emergency needs.


Emergency Shelter Repair Program

Although three USAID offices contributed to the program, all of the
funding for the ESRP ($25 million) and municipal infrastructure projects
($4 million) is being included under BHR/OFDA, which is implementing the
USAID program.  Of the total $29 million, $12 million is from BHR/OFDA,
$2.5 million from BHR's Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI), and $14.5
million from USAID's Bureau for Europe and the New Independent States
(USAID/ENI).  To date, $23,148,254 has been obligated for the ESRP and
$1,636,273 for the small infrastructure projects.

BHR/OFDA FY 1996 (to date) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$50,571,913


USAID/BHR/FFP FY 1996 Assistance

The Office of Food for Peace (BHR/FFP) has provided 178,000 MT of Title II
food assistance, valued at $88,843,300 to support emergency food
requirements of refugees and DPs in the former Yugoslavia.
BHR/FFP FY 1996 (to date). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$88,843,300


USAID/BHR/OTI FY 1996 Assistance

BHR/OTI has established USAID regional liaison offices in Banja Luka,
Tuzla, and Zenica and is providing 103 political transition grants through
these offices to promote political development (independent media,
electoral assistance, and grassroots civic organizing).
BHR/OTI FY 1996 (to date). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8,700,000


USAID/ENI FY 1996 Assistance

USAID/ENI has identified 29 municipal and community projects under the
Municipal Infrastructure and Services Program and commercial loans
totalling $4 million were approved in the last six weeks.  USAID/ENI has
also provided substantial support to the OSCE and its election activity,
as well as engaging in several ENI-specific pre-election, democracy and
media projects.  Technical assistance in the areas of privatization, bank
reform, tax, budget, and customs is ongoing.
USAID/ENI FY 1996 (to date). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$90,015,722


STATE/PRM FY 1996 Assistance

The U.S. State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration
(STATE/PRM) has contributed $37 million to UNHCR and $11.7 million to the
ICRC, $2 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red
Crescent Societies (IFRC), $2 million to the International Organization
for Migration (IOM), and $1 million to the World Health Organization
(WHO), in response to their appeals for assistance to the former
Yugoslavia.  STATE/PRM also gave grants totalling $6.148 million to three
NGOs.
STATE/PRM FY 1996 (to date). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$60,018,539


DOD/PKHA FY 1996 Assistance

DOD's Office of Peacekeeping and Humanitarian Assistance (DOD/PKHA) has
provided 500,000 humanitarian daily rations (HDRs) valued at $1,975,000
for use in the former Yugoslavia.  In addition, DOD/PKHA has funded the
transport of emergency medical supplies, hygiene kits, clothing, blankets,
medicines, and ambulances for NGOs such as Project HOPE, Hadassah, UMCOR,
Holy Family Adoption and Relief Services, and Global Operations and
Development ($253,814).
DOD/PKHA FY 1996 (to date) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,228,814


Total BHR/OFDA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$50,571,913
Total BHR/FFP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$88,843,300
Total BHR/OTI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8,700,000
Total USAID/ENI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$90,015,722
Total STATE/PRM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$60,018,539
Total DOD/PKHA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2,228,814
Total USG FY 1996 (to date). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $300,378,288

USG FY 1991. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,000,000
USG FY 1992. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$47,362,239
USG FY 1993. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $343,841,260
USG FY 1994. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $387,869,602
USG FY 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $181,571,978
USG FY 1996 (to date). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $300,378,288
Total USG FY 91-96 (to date) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,262,023,367



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