Kenya: Drought [IRIN: 24-Feb-97]
Kenya: Drought [IRIN: 24-Feb-97]
U N I T E D N A T I O N S
Department of Humanitarian Affairs
Integrated Regional Information Network
Tel: +254 2 622147
Fax: +254 2 622129
E-mail: irin@dha.unon.org
HUMANITARIAN SITUATION REPORT ON KENYA
24 February 1997
INTRODUCTION
1. As a result of successive poor rains, large parts of northern and
eastern Kenya are currently facing a severe drought which is undermining
the food security of at least two million people (1). This situation report
follows DHA participation in two recent UN inter-agency assessment
missions and includes information provided by the Arid Lands Resource
Management Programme (ALRMP), the Drought Preparedness Intervention &
Recovery Programme (DRIRP), the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS/USAID),
UN agencies and NGOs.
2. The report focusses on those parts of the country which current
information suggests have been most severely affected by the drought.
These are the pastoralist districts of northern and north-eastern Kenya
(Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit/Moyale) and the marginal
agricultural districts of Eastern Province (Machakos, Makueni, Kitui,
Mwingi, Mbeere and Tharaka-Nithi). The food security of the people in
these districts is of particular concern because of the combination of
climatic and economic factors which has made it very difficult for them to
exchange livestock, grow, or buy their own food. Brief mention is also
made of other areas reported to be seriously affected (2).
NORTH AND NORTH-EASTERN KENYA
3. The drought in north and north-eastern Kenya follows poor rains during
1995 and well below average rains in the March-June long-rains season in
1996. These poor rains have since been exacerbated by a very late, poorly
distributed and brief 1996 short-rains season, which normally lasts from
October to December but which began in mid-November and ended abruptly at
the end of November.
4. Pastoralism is the dominant livelihood in the north and north-east,
supplemented by a limited amount of agriculture along the River Tana,
which flows along the south of Isiolo district and through the centre of
Garissa district, and the River Daua, which flows across the north of
Mandera district along Kenya's border with Ethiopia. In addition, there
are other pockets of crop farming in each district, such as Bute and Gurar
in Wajir, Barissa and Takaba in Mandera and along the seasonal Ewaso
Ng'iro River in Isiolo district. At present, however, none of these areas
makes a significant contribution to the food security of these districts.
5. The failure of the rains has inhibited the recovery of vegetation
regeneration and failed to fully replenish the pans and dams on which the
pastoralists rely for most of their water needs. Most of the pans and dams
in the north and north-east have now dried up altogether, while the pans
that remain have attracted large livestock herds and are swiftly
approaching exhaustion. The boreholes in operation remain an important
source of water for both people and livestock, but are also under strain,
because of overuse. In Marsabit, for example, all five boreholes along the
road from Marsabit town to Moyale town are reported to have failed,
creating a severe water shortage across the centre of Marsabit district.
6. Communities are finding it increasingly difficult to afford the diesel
required to run the pumping operations, as well as spare parts for
generators and pumps. Some areas now depend on water tankered in from
outside, but the north and north-east has only a very small number of
working tankers at present. During a recent UN inter-agency asessment
mission it was reported that the only available tanker in Mandera district
had broken down. In brief, the situation across the north and north-east
is that surface water supplies for people and livestock are very scarce
and progressively diminishing.
7. The shortage of vegetation and water prompted a large-scale migration
of pastoralists and their livestock to Ethiopia and Somalia following the
failed long-rains in March-June 1996. These communities are reported to
have since returned, and to be congregating in areas which received rains
during the short-rains season, notably Isiolo district, as well as moving
within districts to individual pans and boreholes which still have water.
It appears that most of the cattle population remains in neighbouring
countries, while camels, which are relatively drought- resistant, have
been brought back to Kenya. As people cluster around watering points, the
environment is being damaged by overgrazing and the felling of trees for
firewood and charcoal.
8. As pastoralists move further and further beyond their traditional
grazing land in search of water and pasture, they are impinging upon the
grazing territories of other nomadic groups, leading to conflict. There
have been a growing number of cases of livestock rustling and banditry,
including the looting of property and hijacking of vehicles. It has
been suggested that this is related to the impoverishment of the
population as a result of the drought.
9. Families have separated, with young men and teenagers accompanying the
herds, and women, children and the elderly moving to urban centres in the
hope of generating a small amount of income or receiving relief
assistance. Families in Garissa town, interviewed by the recent UN
mission, reported having travelled over 200 kms from Hulugho and Sangailu
in Garissa South in order to reach Garissa. The town's displaced
population, which includes people made destitute in the 1992/93 drought,
has swelled further, according to the Garissa District Commissioner. In a
separate development, education officials report an increasing number of
parents have been forced to remove children from school because of their
inability to pay fees.
10. The shortage of pasture and water reflects itself in deteriorating
livestock health and prices, increasing livestock mortality rates and
declining milk production across the north and north-east. In Isiolo, for
example, prices for both small and large stock are very low at present,
with prices for goats having fallen by 80% from Ksh 1,500 in December 1994
to 300 in December 1996. Prices for cattle dropped by 71% from Ksh 17,250
in December 1994 to Ksh 5,000 in December 1996 (3). The same was true for
Mandera in recent months, where between October and December 1996 prices
for sheep fell from Ksh 505 to 330, for goats from Ksh 633 to 505, for
cattle from Ksh 3,139 to 2,319 and for camels from Ksh 3,411 to 2,084 (4).
11. The decline in the value of livestock has eroded the purchasing power
of pastoralists. At the same time as livestock prices have fallen, the
price of maize has increased, resulting in worsening terms of trade.
Livestock markets are in a state of glut as pastoralists seek to sell off
their stock, but food in stores is going unbought because the herders lack
the means to purchase what is available. Worsening livestock health and
increased mortality rates have been reported in Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo,
Mandera and Marsabit/Moyale districts. Diseases of particular concern are
Contagious Bovine Pleural Pneumonia (CBPP) and worm infestation.
12. These accounts are confirmed by a study of the terms of trade figures
produced at the district level. In Wajir, the terms of trade from meat to
maize fell from Ksh 28 per kg of meat to Ksh 23 per kg of maize in the
first quarter of 1996 to Ksh 18 per kg of meat to Ksh 22 in the last
quarter of the year (5). The same situation prevailed in Mandera, where
between October and December 1996 the meat: cereal price ratio fell from
Ksh 24:22 to Ksh 17:23. (6). In Isiolo, while there were improvements in
the meat: cereal price ratio for most divisions in the last quarter of
1996, the terms of trade for pastoralists worsened in Merti and Sericho
divisions (7).
13. The effect of food scarcity and declining milk production is making
itself felt in terms of human health. Malnutrition rates among children
under-five are reported to be rising in all the north and north-eastern
districts. In Wajir, for example, the are up from 18.2% in the first
quarter of 1996 to 34.7% in the last quarter. In Mandera, malnutrition
among children is reported to have increased from 15.3% in September to
32.7% in December, while severe malnutrition has increased from 3.8% in
September to 15.2% in December (8). In Marsabit/Moyale, 18% of children
are malnourished compared to 14% in October (9). These malnutrition data
were obtained using the MUAC method of measurement.
14. Malnutrition among children in the Garissa suburbs, where displaced
people are currently arriving, is reported to be 34%, while the Merti and
Sericho divisions of Isiolo district report child malnutrition rates of
28.9% and 33.6% respectively (10). In addition to rising malnutrition
rates, populations are experiencing health problems associated with the
lowered resistance to disease arising from their declining nutritional
status as well as problems related to vitamin deficiences. In Wajir the
recent UN mission received reports of diarrhoea, anaemia and respiratory
tract infections, in Garissa cases of night blindness were reported, while
in Isiolo there has been an increasing number of cases of dysentry.
15. The possibility of major outbreaks of infectious diseases is a growing
concern, especially given the low rates of immunization coverage in the
north-east. Immunization coverage against measles, for example, is
estimated at 30% in Mandera district and less than 35% in Wajir district.
Another concern is that public health standards are under growing strain
as populations cluster in towns and around water sources.
16. Within the north and north-eastern districts, it is possible to
distinguish divisions or areas which are particularly severely affected by
drought. In Wajir, the south of the district has been most severely
affected, as has the northern half of Garissa district. In Isiolo, Merti
division in the north, Sericho in the east and Kinna in the south have
been most affected. Little distinction has been made between the degrees
of drought affectedness across Marsabit/Moyale, although Sololo division
in the north-east received better rains than anywhere else and is the
least affected area.
17. Turkana district in Kenya's north-west shares the same main climatic
and economic characteristics as the other parts of north and north-eastern
Kenya described above. It too has experienced very poor short rains,
however its long-rains season in 1996, though late, was well above
average, and therefore the district as a whole is less severely affected
than its neighbouring districts to the east. Although livestock prices
have fallen, the general health of livestock is reported to be `fair'.
Malnutrition rates across the district, supplied by the MOH, show
significant variations, with malnutrition of 32% in the north, 20% in
central areas and 9% in the south. It appears likely that there are
pockets within Turkana facing particular difficulties, even though the
overall situation is less perturbing than elsewhere.
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PROVINCES
18. The marginal agricultural districts within Eastern Province are
Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Mwingi, Mbeere and Tharaka-Nithi. In these
districts the short-rains are more reliable than the long-rains, and
account for up to 70% of total annual production. Maize is the major crop
in all of these districts, while beans, sorghum, millet, pigeon peas and
green grams are also grown. The last short-rains season, however, was very
poor. Although some of the higher altitude areas received adequate
rainfall, in general the rains, which lasted only between 2-4 weeks, were
too short to enable the crops to reach maturity.
19. The result was large-scale crop failures in all of these districts,
and the estimated shortfalls in maize production are dramatic. In
Machakos, a harvest of only 4,500 MT of maize is expected, in comparison
with average production of 45,000 MT. Most of this harvest is expected to
come from the upper lying divisions of Kathiani, Kangundo and Central. In
Makueni, agricultural officials expect a harvest of only 5,400 MT,
compared to average production of 36,000 MT. In Kitui, 38,000 hectares
were put to maize, but less than 9,000 MT is expected. The same is true
for both Mwingi district, where 506 MT of maize is expected in comparison
with the average of 15,300 MT, and in Tharaka-Nithi, which anticipates a
maize harvest of 3,600 MT, as against the average of 20,000 MT. In terms
of beans, the picture is even more grave, with all of these districts
anticipating either no beans harvest at all or a tiny fraction of the
average (11).
20. Exceptionally high market prices for both maize and beans reflect the
failure of the harvest. Maize is about double its usual price for this
time of year, at between 16-21 Ksh per kilogram in comparison to 7-11 Ksh
per kilogram at this time last year. Most of the maize is reported to have
been supplied from Nakuru and Kitale districts in Rift Valley province.
The prices for beans are even more inflated, at between 35-45 Ksh per
kilogram, in comparison to about 10 Ksh per kilogram in January 1996. The
beans are reported to derive from Tanzania. While prices for staples are
rising, the prices of livestock continue to fall, with goats fetching
between 600-800 Ksh, about half their price at this time last year (12).
21. The districts of Makueni, Mwingi, Mbeere and Tharaka-Nithi are the
most severely affected of all, having already experienced two poor rainy
seasons prior to the recent short-rains. But the situation facing
households in all of the districts in the marginal agricultural areas is
very serious. They normally depend upon maize and beans not only for their
own consumption but also for a large share of their family income. With
the prices of staples so dramatically inflated, and livestock prices
falling, their food security is under great stress. Some areas don't
receive the long-rains at all; for these communities February 1998 will be
the next harvest. Farm families are already adopting short term coping
strategies such as reducing the number of meals per day, migrating in
search of wage labour, and burning charcoal, but it appears unlikely these
will suffice without an escalated food relief programme.
22. Two other districts also reported to be as severely affected by the
drought as the marginal agricultural areas in Eastern province are the
districts of Kajiado and Taita Taveta, in Rift Valley and Coast provinces
respectively. They share similar agro-climatic conditions to districts
like Makueni in Eastern province, however, and both have received poor
rains over the past three rainy seasons. Kajiado is predominantly a
pastoralist area, while Taita Taveta is primarily agricultural. Recent
reports suggest that livestock in western Kajiado are coming under very
severe strain and that there has been widespread crop failure in the
low-lying areas of Taita Taveta. A FEWS/USAID assessment mission is
currently visiting these areas and will report in the near future.
23. The rains also ended very early in the high potential districts of
Embu and Meru in Eastern province and in most of Central Province. In
these areas, maize harvests will also be much lower than average and
prices for both maize and beans are about twice their usual level. In
general, however, the situation in these areas is less grave than in the
marginal agricultural areas of Eastern province. Short rains production is
less significant in the high potential areas, contributing only 40% of
total annual production. The previous rainy seasons in these areas have,
moreover, been close to normal, which has helped farm families to build up
the assets to see themselves through this period. In addition, these high
potential areas are less dependent on maize and beans than the marginal
areas, having diversified into other enterprises such as tea, coffee,
dairy and pyrethrum (13).
THE RESPONSE TO THE DROUGHT
The Government of Kenya
22. The Government of Kenya declared the drought a state of natural
disaster on 28 January 1997 and appealed to donors to assist in responding
to the crisis. For its own part, the Government has lifted the ban on
maize imports and waived all duties on imported maize, pulses, milk and
rice intended for relief feeding. The Government has also removed the
import duty on commercial maize, which will act an an incentive for
commercial importers to make up the estimated 1.3 million tonne shortfall
in Kenya over the coming months. As FEWS has pointed out, the current
maize deficit is not only the result of the failed short-rains but also
reflects Kenya's growing structural deficit in maize production as well as
a reduction in the area put to maize in the last long-rains season (14).
23. The Government will import 180,000 MT of maize, 27,000 MT of beans and
9,000 litres of oil for relief purposes. The Government expects the
private sector to import the bulk of the maize shortfall and the first
indications are promising. This month traders are expected to import
89,000 MT, while the estimated figure for March is 111,000 MT. Only once
in 1994, the last year when maize imports were permitted, did traders
import over 100,000 MT in a month (September 1994, when 115,000 MT was
imported).
24. The Government is also stepping up its famine relief allocations of
maize, which have been underway for several months. The number of 90kg
bags distributed in Garissa, for example, increased from 2,500 bags in
September 1996 to 4,500 in November and 10,000 in February. For the
country as a whole, the number of maize bags distributed has increased
from 50,000 in September, to 78,000 in November, 87,500 in January this
year and an estimated 220,000 bags this month. This relief is currently
distributed to 36 districts.
25. At about 20,000 MT per month the Government's relief effort is a major
intervention. Aid agencies have expressed concerns, however, that the
relief maize may not be reaching the most vulnerable groups in each
community. With 36 districts receiving aid, the relief maize is spread
thinly across the country, rather than targetted towards those districts
most severely affected by the drought. Within the districts themselves, it
has been reported that relief is distributed to everyone present at
distribution sites, rather than targetted towards specific vulnerable
groups. Another issue of concern is that relief maize is reportedly being
sold off in order to pay for transport costs. This makes it likely that
isolated communities will receive less aid than they are entitled to.
26. At the district level the local authorities are establishing relief
committees to oversee and coordinate relief activities. Called Social
Dimensions of Development Committees (SDDCs) and chaired by the respective
District Commissioners, they will have a central role to play in ensuring
that relief aid is targetted towards areas and communities who have been
particularly affected by the drought. In many cases UN agencies and
international NGOs working in rural areas participate in the SDDCs.
UN AGENCY AND NGO PROGRAMMES
27. At present WFP and UNICEF are actively assisting in many of the
country's drought-stricken areas. WFP has a regular school feeding
programme reaching 340,000 children, many of whom are in drought-affected
areas. In response to the current situation WFP has begun to undertake
school feeding programmes in several districts previously not covered,
meeting the needs of an additional 128,000 children, and will expand this
programme again in March to reach a further 323,000.
28. As WFP currently provides food to all the schools in the north and
north-east of Kenya, WFP will scale up in Garissa, Wajir, Isolo, Marsabit/
Moyale and Mandera by distributing extra food through selected NGOs. WFP's
programme will, by March, be providing food in all of the most severely
drought-affected districts described in this report, and is currently
seeking funds for its expanded programme.
29. UNICEF is currently scaling up its programme in the most severely
drought affected areas in the north-east and plans to meet one third of
the requirements in the water, health and veterinary sectors if its appeal
proposal is funded. Likewise, FAO, in conjunction with the Ministry of
Agriculture and the Office of the President, plans to assist farmers in
drought affected areas by providing seeds and handtools for the next
planting season to farmers who would not otherwise be able to afford them.
FAO will also assist in undertaking emergency veterinary vaccinations.
UNDP and DHA will provide funds for income generating projects, emergency
transport as well as monitoring and evaluation of the emergency operation.
30. There are also a large number of local and international NGOs and
chruch organisations working across Kenya, many of them in the most
severely drought affected areas. International NGOs and organisations
present in the north-east include OXFAM, undertaking a major food
distribution programme for 105,000 people in Wajir, MSF-Spain providing
supplementary feeding in Mandera, Action Aid and German Agro Action in
Isiolo and the Catholic Mission in Isiolo and Garissa. German Agro Action
and GTZ are also working in some of the most severely affected districts
in Eastern Province.
31. Coordination between the Government of Kenya, UN agencies, NGOs and
church organisations will be a critical issue as the emergency programme
scales up in the coming weeks. WFP has indicated its willingness to
coordinate activities by all the different actors in the food sector,
while UNICEF will coordinate water, health and livestock interventions.
The UN Disaster Management team, chaired by the UN Coordinator in Kenya,
will continue to review and monitor the progress of UN interventions
during the drought period. A DHA Appeal has already been launched for the
north-east and a further UN Appeal is expected shortly.
CONCLUSIONS
32. The current and planned relief programmes by the Government of Kenya,
UN agencies and NGOs may be expected to avert the worst effects of the
drought and prevent the onset of a large-scale crisis, in which large
numbers of lives would be lost. Additional measures, however, are
highly desirable. The UN system in Kenya has, as the result of an
inter-agency assessment mission to the north-east, set out a series of
recommendations to the Government for further actions in the food, water,
livestock health and human health sectors (see Appendix). In terms of food
alone, mention has already been made of the need to target relief aid
towards the most drought affected districts and the most vulnerable groups
in each community. It is also a matter of concern that food relief is
reaching isolated communities in reduced quantities as the result of being
sold off to meet transport costs.
33. The planned relief effort seeks to help communities until the onset of
the long-rains, expected between March and June. Should the long-rains
arrive late, be poorly distributed or end early, many of those communities
which have managed adequately until now will be pushed to the margins of
survival. Large parts of Kenya have now experienced three poor rainy
seasons in succession and the food security of their communities is
already threatened, as stocks and cash reserves approach exhaustion. If
the long rains fail the current and planned relief programme will need to
be reviewed and swiftly escalated to prevent an even greater crisis. The
Government of Kenya, UN agencies and NGOs are keeping this issue at the
forefront of their minds and beginning to prepare contingency plans.
References
1. This figure refers only to populations believed to be most severely
affected by the current drought. It was derived by adding the total
populations of the districts of Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo and
Marsabit/Moyalo (using 1989 census figures plus estimated population
growth rates) to the estimated numbers of people most severely affected in
the marginal agricultural districts of Eastern Province.
2. The classication of most severely affected districts is that of the
Famine Early Warning System, Kenya Vulnerability Update, February 1997. The
report does not seek to imply that these are the only parts of the country
which have been affected by the drought, and acknowledges the existence of
pockets facing severe food stress within districts which may have received
relatively good rains.
3. Garba Tulla Development Office.
4. ALRMP, Mandera District Drought Status Reports for 11.96 and 12.96.
5. Wajir District, Drought Situation report, 21.1.96.
6. As for 4.
7. DPIRP, Isiolo District Drought Monitoring Bulletin, 10-12.96.
8. As for 4.
9. DPIRP, Marsabit/Moyale District Drought Monitoring Bulletin, 1.97.
10. As for 7.
11. FEWS-USAID Kenya's Preliminary Harvest Assessment of Eastern and
Central Provinces of Kenya, January 14-17, 1997.
12. As for 11.
13. As for 11.
14. FEWS, Kenya Vulnerability Update, February 1997.
Appendix:
Recommendations to the Government of Kenya by the UN inter-agency
assessment team which visited the north-east, 21-23 January:
Import taxes: The Government should lift the import tax on commercial
maize and ensure the waiver of all taxes and duties on relief goods. This
recommendation has been adopted by the Government.
Port clearance: The Government should give priority to relief commodities
over commercial goods passing through the port of Mombasa in terms of
granting berthing and discharge, as well as expiditing the process of
customs clearance.
Infrastructure/Roads: The Government should urgently undertake further
road improvements to help facilitate relief deliveries during the rainy
season, giving priority to those areas where roads are in poorest
condition.
Security Arrangements: The Government should formalize arrangements for
security escorts of relief personnel and goods within high risk areas in
order to ensure their safety and welfare.
Veterinary Drugs: The Government should subsidize the cost of veterinary
drugs to help pastoralists afford basic and urgently-needed drugs for
treatment of their livestock.
Human Health Services: The Government should waive charges to the public
for the cost of drugs and ward admissions during the crisis period.
School Fees: The Government should consider waiving or subsidizing school
fees in areas where the economy has been particularly hard hit by the
drought.
GOK Relief Maize: The Government should ensure that maize relief is
directed to those in greatest genuine need, and that adequate transport
facilities and fuel are readily available to deliver GOK maize relief on
a timely basis.
Emergency Resource Allocations: The Government should review and
increase its allocation for emergency related needs of essential
human drugs, outreach health services, supply and delivery of diesel
fuel, spare parts, standby generating sets, veterinary drugs, vehicle
maintenance and repairs.
Master Plan: The Government needs to develop a master plan in order to
strengthen existing government programmes in the fields of land tenure,
management of wet and dry season grazing patterns, strengthening of
livestock marketing infrastructure, and drought preparedness and
mitigation.
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