IRIN
PAKISTAN: Race is on for quake zone winter migration
15 December 2006


[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

MANSEHRA, 15 December (IRIN) - As the snow falls in the mountains of 
quake-stricken northern Pakistan, the race is now on to provide support in the 
valleys below for thousands of families driven from their homes by severe 
weather.

Up to 60,000 people could swell the existing population in tented camps across 
the quake zone in the weeks ahead to almost 100,000, who will see out the 
winter under canvas or corrugated iron sheets in the valleys.

Many families whose homes were destroyed in last year's disaster have been 
unable to rebuild and remain in inadequate shelter in their mountain villages.

Their situation is compounded by lost livelihoods, potential food insecurity 
and a threat of disease as weather conditions deteriorate. High altitude areas 
will see temperatures plummet below minus 20 Celcius in the weeks ahead and 
some communities could be cut off for weeks by heavy snow, aid workers warn.

In Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP) alone up to 50,000 people 
could be forced from their mountain homes by harsh weather to seek shelter and 
food in government-run camps supported by the international aid community.

That's the view of Mansehra-based district co-ordination officer (DCO), Shakeel 
Qadar Khan. "In the worst case scenario 50,000 people could come down from the 
mountains to seek help in the camps if the weather is very bad," he warned.

In Pakistani-administered Kashmir, a further 10,000 people could move from high 
altitude villages to the camps in search of support in the weeks ahead, 
according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in a recent 
survey.

However, Muzaffarabad-based Raja Abbas, Additional Commissioner for the 
government-backed Camp Management Organisation, believes the figure could be 
lower for Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

"Last year we had similar reports, but the winter was mild and the numbers were 
less than feared," Abbas said. "We are hoping for the same this year, but are 
making contingency plans just in case and have identified four or five sites 
for additional camps, with a combined capacity for up to 1,000 families, if 
needed," he claimed.

There are currently 40 camps in Muzaffarabad and four in Bagh district, already 
with a total population of 29,500-plus. Most are landless, still waiting for 
their cases to be heard for relocation or victims of August's monsoon rains, 
Abbas added.

He said all camp families were being issued with further equipment, including 
additional corrugated galvanised iron sheeting, or winter tents, blankets and 
quilts.

"But many families come down and however bad the weather, we hope to be ready," 
he said.

In NWFP there are currently three established camps, with a combined population 
of around 5,000 people. With the exception of Jaba camp, close to Balakot, 
there is capacity for expansion for an additional 800 families. Here too the 
DCO confirmed winterisation of existing camp families is in progress.

A decision to open a further camp at Kashtarh has been taken within the last 
fortnight to cope with any overspill and act as a "shock-absorber" if needed. 
It has an initial capacity for 500 families.

But DCO Qadar Khan said the policy was to try and keep families up in their 
mountain communities by maintaining access during heavy snowfalls or 
landslides.

"We will be attempting to keep the roads clear and have positioned additional 
earth-moving equipment in key areas," Khan said, noting one of the biggest 
fears within mountain communities was the threat of being cut off.

IOM released a comprehensive survey in November of the most vulnerable 
quake-affected families living in the mountains, which suggests up to 30,000 
will leave their communities in NWFP to seek aid in the camps this winter and a 
further 10,000 across Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

John Sampson, IOM's head of sub-office in Muzaffarabad, said: "We think our 
figures give a pretty good indication of the movement we will see, but it will 
depend on the weather and what people see is planned for them - the next few 
weeks will be critical."

More than 75,000 people were killed and some 70,000 severely injured or 
disabled on 8 October 2005 when the South Asia earthquake devastated the 
mountain communities of northern Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. 
An estimated three million were left with inadequate shelter, most of them in 
need of food in the immediate aftermath.

The fragile infrastructure of this harsh, rugged mountain community was 
destroyed: hospitals, schools, government buildings, livelihoods - and roads 
crucial for access.

Today tens of thousands of families remain in temporary shelter as the second 
winter since the disaster approaches. For many, adequate shelter, food, clean 
water and access to medicines are major concerns. IRIN photos and articles of 
the Asia earthquake impact are available to media and members of the 
humanitarian community free-of-charge. Articles can be accessed at 
www.IRINnews.org. Full-sized images suitable for publications can be downloaded 
directly from the public photo 
library:www.irinnews.org/photogallery/iringallery .  To search for appropriate 
photos select 'Pakistan' under the Country search dropdown box.


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