U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (USAID)
BUREAU FOR HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE (BHR)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
Central Asia Region- Complex Emergency
Situation Report #3a, Fiscal Year (FY 2001)    October 2 , 2001


Note: the last report, titled Afghanistan - Complex Emergency Situation
Report #2, was dated September 20, 2001.

Background

Two decades of war in Afghanistan, including a decade-long Soviet
occupation and ensuing civil strife, have left Afghanistan impoverished
and mired in an extended humanitarian crisis. Government infrastructure,
including the ability to deliver the most basic health, education, and
other social services, has collapsed. Significant resources are directed
to the war effort. Severe restrictions by the Taliban, including a
restriction on women working outside the home, have added to the impact of
poverty, particularly on the many households lacking able-bodied adult
men. The Taliban now controls about 90 percent of Afghanistan's territory.

Humanitarian prospects worsened sharply in Afghanistan in September 2001
due to developments both inside and outside the country. Osama bin Laden,
who currently resides in Afghanistan under Taliban protection, is the
leading suspect in the September 11 terrorist attack against the United
States. Fears of a possible U.S. reprisal have triggered a population
exodus from major Afghan cities, both towards other points in Afghanistan
and towards the country's borders. International staff of most relief
agencies have also withdrawn, leaving the status of relief programs in
question at a critical moment. In addition, even prior to the September 11
there were signs that relations between the international community and
the Taliban were worsening significantly. These new developments have
added to an existing crisis of extensive displacement stemming from civil
conflict and a debilitating three-year drought.


Numbers Affected at a Glance

Since September 11, large-scale population movements inside Afghanistan
have been reported, particularly from the cities of Kabul, Kandahar, and
Jalalabad. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has reported
15,000 new arrivals in Pakistan since September 11, and up to 20,000
Afghans waiting on the Afghan side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Since September 2000, civil strife and drought have driven an estimated
180,000 new refugees into Pakistan. The United Nations estimates that
drought and conflict-affected internally displaced persons (IDPs) in
Afghanistan number at least 900,000. Longer-term conflict-displaced
estimates are as high as one million countrywide. Drought has affected at
least 12 million Afghans. An estimated 2.6 million old caseload refugees
from the Soviet occupation era remain outside Afghanistan's borders in
Iran and Pakistan, according to UNHCR. Afghanistan's total population is
estimated at nearly 26 million.


Total FY 2001 / 2002 U.S. Government (USG) Assistance to Afghanistan
$183,564,115



Current Situation

National Overview. During the week of September 20 - 26, populations
continued to leave the major Afghan cities of Kabul, Jalalabad, Herat, and
Kandahar in fear of a possible U.S. attack. Taliban recruitment efforts in
Kabul and Herat were reportedly an additional factor in displacement.
Despite the continuing exodus, there were reports that some Afghan heads
of household were returning to these cities as fear of an imminent attack
subsided, and in an effort to prevent looting.

In a funding appeal presented to donors September 26, UNHCR said it was
preparing for an influx of up to 1 million refugees into Pakistan; 400,000
into Iran; 50,000 into Tajikistan; and 50,000 into Turkmenistan. It said
it was also making additional contingency plans to supply aid to 500,000
people inside Afghanistan, if the necessity arises.

A new edict issued by the Taliban banned almost all communications with
entities outside Afghanistan, particularly via satellite phones. The edict
threatened to severely impact international humanitarian programs
following the exodus of nearly all international relief workers. Most
international relief programs in Taliban-controlled areas have been run by
international agencies outside Afghanistan via telecommunications with
local staffs; the communications ban, enforced by the threat of hanging,
made it impossible to manage programs and ensure the safety of staff. The
exception to the near-total communication ban was Herat, where the U.N.
was permitted use of one radio set under Taliban supervision. The U.N. has
formally sought permission to operate at least one high frequency radio in
each field office in each location, but to date there has been no
conclusive response.


Political Developments

The isolation of the Taliban deepened during the preceding week as first
the United Arab Emirates and then Saudi Arabia withdrew diplomatic
relations. These moves left Pakistan as the only country still maintaining
diplomatic relations with the Taliban.

Pakistan, a key base of operations for many humanitarian agencies working
in Afghanistan, experienced a nationwide strike and anti-American
demonstrations on Friday, September 21. Some violence was reported,
notably in Karachi, where two people were killed. However, violence was
less than feared. The international staff of some relief agencies in
Pakistan had left the country fearing violence as the result of ongoing
developments in Afghanistan; however, such departures appear to have
stopped.


Refugees - Pakistan.

As of September 25, UNHCR continued to report that up to 15,000 Afghans
had arrived in Pakistan. Of these, 10,000 have found shelter in host
families in and around Quetta, and another 5,000 are encamped near the
Chaman border crossing. An additional group of Afghans numbering up to
20,000 was waiting on the Afghan side of the border at Chaman. The
Government of Pakistan (GOP) has kept the borders closed to refugees, but
has stated that it would assist those who arrive despite the closure.
According to UNHCR, Pakistani officials are also considering allowing
women, children and elderly persons to cross at Chaman.

UNHCR reported September 24 that it would move the 5,000 Afghans encamped
in Pakistan near Chaman to a point further from the border for screening.
UNHCR will then transport them to a former refugee settlement, currently
empty, at Dara. UNHCR believes this site could accommodate up to 20,000
people. In the North West Frontier Province, joint UNHCR/GOP teams began
inspecting possible reception sites on September 26. Officials there have
already designated 100 sites for Afghan refugees that could accommodate up
to one million people, according to UNHCR. UNHCR plans to preposition
blankets and other relief items once the site survey is complete. It is
expected that camps could be operational within seven to ten days.


Refugees - Iran.

According to UNHCR, there have been no new reports of refugees arriving in
Iran. A total of 500 new refugees have arrived since the events of
September 11, while 1,000 Afghans were reported to be gathering along the
Afghan side of the border at Zaranj, west of Kandahar. Iran's border
remains officially closed to refugees.

As of September 25, UNHCR and the Government of Iran had identified 12
sites in Khorassan and Sistan-Baluchistan provinces to house a potential
refugee influx. Iran has also set up eight camps inside Afghanistan to
accommodate Afghans moving towards the border, according to IRNA, the
official Iranian news agency.


Refugees - Tajikistan.

Some 10,000 IDPs who have resided on islands in the Pyandj River along the
Afghan-Tajik border after a successful Taliban offensive in Takhar
Province in September 2000 remain in place, according to UNHCR.
Tajikistan's border has remained closed to this population, as well as to
any other refugees, and Tajikistan's government has re-asserted that
Tajikistan is unable to accept new arrivals due to conditions there.
Tajikistan is currently experiencing a severe drought that has affected up
to one million people.

Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations warned that up to 300,000
Afghans may flee to the former Soviet Central Asian republics, including
Tajikistan, according to an Agence France-Presse report. Russian officials
planned to hold discussions with Tajik officials about the situation,
according to the report.


Central, Southern, and Eastern Regions.

According to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
(UNOCHA), up to 50 percent of Kabul's population may have left the city
towards rural areas. However, as of September 25 there were also reports
of people returning, apparently due to diminishing fears of an imminent
attack coupled with concern regarding possible looters.

In Kandahar, Taliban officials entered U.N. and relief agency offices,
asked staff to leave, and seized equipment. Two mine action agencies were
affected. Demining activities in Afghanistan have ceased.

An estimated 100,000 people, or roughly half of Kandahar's population,
have left for rural areas and towards the Pakistan border since September
11, according to UNOCHA. According to UNOCHA, there were an estimated
200,000 IDPs in Kandahar prior to September 11.

UNOCHA reported September 19 that up to 65 percent of Jalalabad's
population may have left, mostly to remote villages in the region or to
border areas in the hopes of crossing into Pakistan. Jalalabad's
population is estimated at roughly 250,000 in a 1999 World Food Program
(WFP) Vulnerability Assessment Mapping (VAM) report. Since then, UNOCHA
has reported that people have continued to leave, but exact numbers are
not known.


Northern Region

Action Against Hunger (AAH) reported on September 23 that there are now 30
spontaneous camps in and around the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif,
hosting approximately 100,000 IDPs. Most IDPs in the region are displaced
due to drought or conflict, rather than developments related to the events
of September 11.

According to UNOCHA, relief activities on a limited basis have continued
in the Northern Region. Assistance includes tents distributed to 7,000
IDPs by local staff of NGOs outside Mazar-e-Sharif. In the Sakhi IDP camp,
a two-month dry food ration was distributed to IDPs on September 23,
according to UNOCHA. UNOCHA reported that local NGO staff also plan to
distribute food to 5,000 vulnerable families in the Alburz Mountain region
of Balkh Province, as well as 10,000 IDP families around Mazar-e-Sharif.
The condition of these IDPs remains a serious concern, according to
UNOCHA, due to the fact that they arrived at their current locations with
no possessions and very limited ability to cope. According to UNOCHA,
WFP-supported bakeries in Mazar-e-Sharif are still operational.


Northeast

There have been no reports of population movements in the relatively small
Northern Alliance-controlled Northeastern Region to date. IDPs in the
Northeastern Region number an estimated 84,000, according to UNOCHA; the
leading cause of displacement has been conflict.


Western Region

UNOCHA reported September 25 that Taliban recruitment efforts in Herat are
generating increasing concern among the civilian population of Herat and
surrounding provinces. Population movements out of Herat have been
reported, but exact figures are not available. The IDP influx to Herat,
which during the summer months sometimes reached 300 persons per day, has
virtually stopped. Reportedly, IDPs are beginning to leave Herat's camps
for home areas. Relief activities in Herat continue, including ongoing
shelter activities through USAID/OFDA-supported Shelter Now
International/US and IOM.


Food Security

On September 25, WFP announced that it was resuming food shipments into
Afghanistan. WFP had stopped shipments following the events of September
11, citing to the closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, fuel
shortages, and a lack of commercial trucks. WFP food aid will be delivered
to Afghanistan's northern and western provinces via Tajikistan and
Turkmenistan. WFP is also exploring the possibility of food aid deliveries
to Afghanistan's western provinces through Iran.

USG food aid for the region is continuing in transit to the region to
assist vulnerable Afghans in accessible areas of Afghanistan, as well as
for Afghan refugees in neighboring countries.



USG Humanitarian Assistance

On September 22, 2000, Former Assistant Secretary Karl F. Inderfurth
re-declared a complex humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan for FY 2001. In
addition, U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan William B. Milam issued a disaster
declaration for Afghan refugees in Pakistan on February 2, 2001. To date,
FY 2001 and 2002 USG humanitarian assistance provided by USAID/OFDA,
USAID/FFP, USDA, the Department of State's Bureau of Population, Refugees,
and Migration (State/PRM), the joint Department of State/Department of
Defense Demining Program, the Department of State's Bureau International
Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (State/INL) and the Centers for
Disease Control (CDC) totals $183,564,115, including both assistance
inside Afghanistan and assistance to Afghan refugees in neighboring
countries.

Despite the pullout of international humanitarian personnel from
Afghanistan, the USG remains committed to assisting vulnerable Afghans.



USAID/OFDA Assistance

At this time, all expatriate staff of USAID/OFDA grantees have left
Afghanistan. Some grantees are attempting to continue programs with local
staff. USAID/OFDA is working with its grantees to determine the status of
programs. Operational difficulties are currently preventing the provision
of assistance to Afghanistan.

Note: The previously reported $18,934,462 million in USAID/OFDA funding
represented both planned and committed funds for FY 2001. The total amount
obligated by close of FY2001 is $12.5 million. The balance has been
carried-over for obligation in FY2002. Due to the events of September 11,
USAID/OFDA implementing partners are still re-assessing their programs in
light of a changing situation, including the evacuation of international
staff. USAID/OFDA will continue programming humanitarian activities with
these agencies during FY2002 as programs are continued or refocused to
meet the most critical needs.

Total USAID/OFDA FY 2001 $12,500,000
Total USAID/OFDA FY 2002 $6,400,000

Total USAID/OFDA FY 2001/2002 $18,900,000


USAID/FFP
WFP - 63,810 MT of P.L. 480 Title II wheat and complementary commodities,
including a contribution for Afghan refugees in Pakistan of 4,000 MT
valued at $1.9 million

Total USAID/FFP FY 2001 $31,200,000


USAID/Democracy & Governance
UNCHS/Habitat - assistance for rebuilding communities for Afghan refugees
and refugees in Pakistan and Afghanistan $200,000

International Human Rights Law Group - support for Afghan refugee women in
Pakistan $250,000

Total USAID/DG $450,000


USDA
WFP - 240,200 MT of 416(b) wheat

Total USDA FY 2001. $99,800,000

State/PRM
(Note: State/PRM contributions to ICRC and UNHCR are for regional
programs. Figures for Afghanistan-specific activities are estimates based
on a percentage of the regional total.)

ICRC - State/PRM provides $9.8 million support for South Asia activities,
a portion of which supports victims of conflict in Afghanistan $6,900,000

UNHCR - State/PRM provides $17.5 million in support of UNHCR's South Asia
programs, a portion of which goes to programs benefiting Afghan refugees
in Pakistan and Iran, as well as returnees in Afghanistan. $15,135,000

UNOCHA - State/PRM contribution for field coordination efforts in
Afghanistan $1,000,000

Support to NGO programs benefiting Afghans.
$5,309,590

Total State/PRM FY 2001 $28,344,590



State/Humanitarian Demining (HDP)

The U.S. Humanitarian Demining Program provides $1.1 million in support of
HALO Trust, a British demining organization, and $1.7 million in financial
and in-kind contributions to the Mine Action Program for Afghanistan.

Total State/HDP FY 2001 $2,800,000


State/INL

U.N. Drug Control Program (UNDCP) - assistance with crop substitution for
former poppy farmers affected by the Taliban poppy ban in Nangarhar.

Total State/INL FY 2001 $1,500,000


Centers for Disease Control (CDC)

UNICEF - support for polio eradication in Afghanistan.

Total CDC FY 2001 $569,525

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance FY 2001/2002    $183,564,115


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