U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE (BHR)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
CENTRAL ASIA TASK FORCE
CENTRAL ASIA REGION - Complex Emergency
Situation Report #2, Fiscal Year (FY) 2002    October 11, 2001


Note: the last Situation Report, titled Afghanistan - Complex Emergency
Situation Report #1, FY 2002, was dated October 4, 2001.

BACKGROUND

Two decades of war in Afghanistan, including a decade-long Soviet
occupation and ensuing civil strife, have left Afghanistan impoverished
and mired in an extended humanitarian crisis.  Government infrastructure,
including the ability to deliver the most basic health, education, and
other social services, has collapsed.  Significant resources are directed
to the war effort.  Severe restrictions by the Taliban, including a
restriction on women working outside the home, have added to the impact of
poverty, particularly on the many households lacking able-bodied adult
men.  The Taliban now controls about 90 percent of Afghanistan's
territory.

Humanitarian prospects worsened sharply in Afghanistan in September 2001
due to developments both inside and outside the country.  Osama bin Laden,
who currently resides in Afghanistan under Taliban protection, is the
leading suspect in the September 11 terrorist attack against the United
States.  Fears of a U.S. reprisal triggered a population exodus from major
Afghan cities, both towards other points in Afghanistan and towards the
country's borders.  The beginning of U.S. air strikes on October 7 caused
additional movement.  International staff of most relief agencies also
withdrew, leaving the status of relief programs in question at a critical
moment.  In addition, even prior to the September 11 there were signs that
relations between the international community and the Taliban were
worsening significantly.  These new developments added to an existing
crisis of extensive displacement stemming from civil conflict and a
debilitating three-year drought.  The new crisis has also threatened to
affect the entire region, with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR) predicting the influx of up to 1.5 million refugees to neighboring
countries in the event of substantial new conflict in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan:  Numbers Affected Total population (CIA Factbook)
	26,813,057
Refugees Since September 11, 2001 (UNHCR)
Pakistan	20,000
Iran	Unknown
Refugees Since September 2000 (UNHCR)
Pakistan	152,000

Old Caseload Refugees (UNHCR)
Iran	1,500,000
Pakistan	2,000,000
Internally Displaced (U.N.)
Since September, 2001	Unknown
Since 2000	900,000
Old Caseload	1,000,000


Notes

UNHCR has revised its total old caseload regional figure for refugees from
2.6 million to 3.5 million.  This does not represent any new influx.  The
number of refugees who arrived in Pakistan since September, 2000 but
before September, 2001 has fallen due to a voluntary repatriation program
which commenced in June, 2001.


Total FY 2001/2002 U.S. Government (USG) Assistance to Afghanistan
$192,269,113

Total FY 2002 USAID/OFDA Assistance to Tajikistan
$998,180



CURRENT SITUATION

Overview.  U.S. air strikes against Taliban and terrorist training
installations inside Afghanistan commenced October 7.  Strikes included
targets in Taliban strongholds in Kabul, Kandahar, and Mazar-e-Sharif.
Air strikes were accompanied by airdrops of Humanitarian Daily Rations
(HDRs), a ready-to-eat food pack.  To date, 140,000 HDRs have been dropped
inside Afghanistan.

One immediate effect of the beginning of military action was that the
information flow from Afghanistan, already at a trickle due to a recent
near-total Taliban ban on communications, slowed even further.  As a
result, little information is available on the status of populations and
relief programs inside Afghanistan.  There have been reports of thousands
of people leaving Afghanistan's major cities, but it has been unclear
whether they are moving towards borders or towards nearby villages for
safety.  To date, however, there have been no reports of massive numbers
of new arrivals at border crossing points.

Military action also further impeded humanitarian work, both due to
security concerns and intensified Taliban harassment of local relief
staff.  In particular, the U.N. reported October 10 that U.N. Mine Action
Program (UNMAP) workers were increasingly being targeted by the Taliban,
with incidents of beatings of staff in Kandahar, Jalalabad, and Kabul.
Additional Taliban harassment reported by the U.N. included the ransacking
of a U.N. office in Mazar-e-Sharif, and the seizure of several vehicles in
Kandahar.  In another incident that underscored the increased danger, the
U.N.  reported that four staff of an Afghan demining NGO in Kabul working
for UNMAP were killed by a stray U.S.  missile.

Political/Military.  Although there have been reports that forces of the
opposition Northern Alliance were prepared to take advantage of air
strikes and attempt to seize control of Kabul as early as the week of
October 8, an October 11 Washington Post report indicated that Northern
Alliance leaders had agreed to delay any such attempt until an interim
government could be established to replace the Taliban.  There have been
concerns about extensive bloodshed if rebels seize the capital before a
functioning government and security forces are in place.  In addition, the
Northern Alliance is primarily composed of ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks, and
Hazaras, and it is likely that Afghanistan's Pashtuns, the country's
largest ethnic group, would be reluctant to see the Northern Alliance take
control without an government providing adequate representation.  There
have also been reports that Northern Alliance forces are planning to move
towards Mazar-e-Sharif, a northern city that fell under Taliban control in
1998.

In two separate incidents on two occasions in the last week that raised
tensions across an already tense border area, Taliban forces crossed the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border, apparently seeking to avoid air strikes,
encountered Pakistani border forces, and were driven back across the
border.

Food Security.  Following the commencement of air strikes, the U.N. World
Food Program (WFP)  temporarily halted food deliveries into Afghanistan,
citing security concerns.  Transport of WFP food aid into Afghanistan has
resumed, however.  A 40-truck convoy carrying 1,007 metric tons (MT) of
food departed Peshawar, Pakistan October 10; and additional convoy from
Mashad, Iran arrived in the western Afghanistan city of Herat October 10.
WFP reported October 10 that convoys are scheduled to cross into the
country from Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, carrying a
total of 3,285 MT of food aid, sufficient for 700,000 Afghans for one
week, as part of a planned acceleration of food deliveries.

WFP reported that it was striving to fill up its warehouses in Afghanistan
within the coming weeks before winter made some key mountain passes in the
Northern and Central Region impassable.  On October 10, WFP reiterated its
goal to provide 52,000 MT of food aid each month to vulnerable
beneficiaries inside Afghanistan.  According to WFP, there are currently
9,022 MT of food inside Afghanistan, and 45,535 MT of food in neighboring
countries.

Pakistan. Pakistan has experienced violent protests in response to the air
strikes in Afghanistan, particularly in the border cities of Peshawar and
Quetta.  To date, three people have been killed in rioting.  In Quetta,
rioters burned a UNICEF building, attacked other buildings and vandalized
U.N. vehicles.  Protesters reportedly also attacked the offices of several
relief agencies in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) near Peshawar.
UNHCR reported October 10 that work on prospective refugee camp sites had
been suspended for three days in Baluchistan and NWFP due to security
concerns.  In general, relief agency staff mobility in Pakistan has been
drastically limited due to unrest, at a time when agencies are scrambling
to prepare for a possible large- scale refugee crisis.

UNHCR reported October 10 that it is continuing to build up stockpiles in
Pakistan; UNHCR now has 15,000 tents in Peshawar, sufficient for up to
80,000 people, and 5,000 tents in Quetta, sufficient for 30,000 people.
The stockpiles remain far short of UNHCR's interim contingency goal to be
prepared for 300,000 people, and its longer-term goal to be prepared for
up to one million new refugees.  UNHCR is also building up stockpiles of
plastic sheeting and blankets.

As of October 11, UNHCR's tally of known refugee arrivals in Pakistan
since September 11 had not risen above 20,000, although thousands more had
reportedly crossed the border at informal points.

Iran.  Although one Reuters report after air strikes began indicated that
Iran had turned back hundreds of Afghans crossing the border, there have
been no other new reports of refugees arriving in Iran.

Central Asia.  Tajikistan, which has cited an inability to cope with any
refugee influx in keeping its borders shut, is currently experiencing a
second year of drought.  Rainfall in major food producing areas has
averaged 60 percent below the long-term average, while snowfall was
estimated to be 40-60 percent of normal levels.  Drought conditions have
led to a serious decline in food production and threatened the livelihoods
of vulnerable populations.  According to an assessment conducted by the
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and WFP, the estimated cereal
production for 2001 was down 15 percent compared to last year's level, and
36 percent compared to the averages from the past five years.  Farming
families impacted by the drought sold personal possessions in order to
survive.  On October 10, USAID/OFDA responded to a disaster declaration
for Tajikistan's drought with $998,180 in assistance.  For details please
see "USG Humanitarian Assistance,"  below.

Afghanistan: Central Region and Kabul. In Kabul, people in unknown numbers
reportedly were leaving the city for surrounding rural areas, as well as
the Northern Alliance-held Panjshir Valley, continuing a trend that had
begun prior to the October 7 commencement of air strikes.  UNOCHA reported
October 10 that some shops remain open in Kabul, although overall activity
in markets and the streets appears significantly lower.  All U.N. offices
in Kabul are currently safe, according to UNOCHA, but one NGO reported
that Taliban authorities had commandeered three of its vehicles.

As of October 10, most NGOs were continuing operations in the Central
Region, according to UNOCHA, which reported that attendance at health
centers on the outskirts of Kabul had significantly increased, probably
due to population movements out of Kabul.  UNOCHA reported that up to
8,000 families have reportedly arrived recently in Laghman Province,
directly east of Kabul.

UNOCHA warned October 10 that the population of the central Hazarajat
region remains extremely vulnerable, and that assistance reaching this
difficult-to-access area remains minimal.  According to UNOCHA,
supplementary feeding and health assistance are priorities in this area.
UNOCHA also noted that a reasonable level of security exists in Hazarajat,
making assistance more feasible; the U.N. is exploring the possibility of
transporting both food and non-food relief supplies to the region via the
commercial sector.  Much of Hazarajat becomes inaccessible during winter
months.

Afghanistan:  Northern Region and Northeast.  IOM reported October 9 that
it is preparing to distribute 30,000 boots, locally purchased in
Mazar-e-Sharif, to assist IDPs in preparing for winter in the Bagh-e-
Sherkat and Ameribad camps in Kunduz Province.  The two camps host a total
of 4,000 families.  IOM has also distributed 1,538 quilts that arrived
October 5 in Ameribad.  IOM also plans to locally purchase 30,000 winter
socks and 5,000 shawls for distribution to IDPs.

There are currently up to an estimated 300,000 IDPs in the Northern
Region, displaced by a combination of drought and conflict.  No
information is available on any additional displacement related to the
events of September 11 or the air strikes that commenced October 7.  In
the relatively small Northern Alliance- controlled Northeastern Region,
there have been no reports of population movements to date.  IDPs in the
Northeastern Region number an estimated 84,000, according to UNOCHA; the
leading cause of displacement has been conflict.

Afghanistan:  Western Region.  According to an October 10 CNN report,
Northern Alliance officials have made an unconfirmed claim that they have
captured the western Afghanistan province of Ghor.  Previously, Northern
Alliance forces reportedly controlled Chagcharan, the provincial capital,
and there had been sporadic fighting in the area.

WFP reported October 9 that it is continuing distribution of food
assistance to 350,000 beneficiaries in Herat's IDP camps.  The IDP influx
to Herat, which during the summer months sometimes reached 300 persons per
day, has virtually stopped.  Reportedly, IDPs are leaving Herat's camps
for home areas.

IOM reported October 9 that it is beginning distribution of 10,000 woolen
blankets to IDPs in Maslakh, Herat's largest IDP camp, to be completed by
the end of the week.  The blankets were purchased in Iran.  IOM is also
continuing efforts to construct 5,000 mud brick shelters for IDPs in Herat
in an effort to provide adequate protection against harsh winter
conditions.  According to IOM, its local staff is fulfilling all
responsibilities, and as a result IOM programs are continuing at full
speed. USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE On October 4, President George W. Bush
announced a $320 million assistance program for Afghanistan.  Funding will
support assistance to Afghans both inside and outside Afghanistan's
borders, with support for food and a wide variety of other relief needs.
On October 4, Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs
Christina B. Rocca redeclared a complex humanitarian disaster in
Afghanistan for FY 2002.  U.S.  Ambassador to Pakistan William B. Milam
issued a disaster declaration for Afghan refugees in Pakistan on February
2, 2001.  To date, FY 2001 and FY 2002 USG humanitarian assistance for
Afghans provided by USAID/OFDA, USAID/FFP, USAID/Democracy & Governance
(DG), USDA, the Department of State's Bureau of Population, Refugees, and
Migration (State/PRM), the Department of State/Department of Defense
Demining Program, the Department of State's Bureau International Narcotics
and Law Enforcement Affairs (State/INL) and the Centers for Disease
Control (CDC) totals $192,269,113, including both assistance inside
Afghanistan and assistance to Afghan refugees in neighboring countries.

In Tajikistan, On October 10, 2001, U.S. Chargé d'Affaires James A.
Boughner declared a disaster due to drought, and requested funds for a
seed and fertilizer distribution program.  USAID/OFDA responded by
providing $998,180 through the U.S. Embassy to CARE for the purchase and
distribution of winter wheat seeds and fertilizer.  USAID/OFDA Assistance
Personnel To respond to the Afghanistan crisis, USAID/OFDA deployed DART
to Pakistan on June 17.  The DART continues to operate in Islamabad.  The
DART is coordinating with the Pakistan-based Afghanistan relief community,
including USG partners.

In April 2001, USAID/OFDA and State/PRM deployed an assessment team to
western and northern Afghanistan including Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif to
assess drought and nutrition conditions in affected areas.


Airlifts

First Airlift to Herat - 30,000 blankets from USAID/OFDA's stockpile to
ICRC for drought-affected families in Ghor (including transport)
$250,841

Second and third airlifts to Herat - 610 tents, 17,500 blankets, 4,800
five-gallon water jugs, four metric tons of high-protein biscuits, and
three modified World Health Organization kits, each with sufficient
supplies to treat 1,000 people for one month, via two USAID/OFDA-chartered
planes on February 9 and 16 (including transport)
$650,850

Airlift to Peshawar - 500 tents, 5,000 blankets and 100 rolls of plastic
sheeting from USAID/OFDA's stockpile for consignment to IRC for use in the
Jalozai and Shamshatoo Afghan refugee camps, plus two health kits
(including transport)
$239,000

Grants - FY 2002 (Afghanistan)
ACTED - IDP camp management and support in Baghlan
$630,000

FAO - seed multiplication	$300,000

International Medical Corps (IMC) - health assistance
for IDPs and local residents in Herat.	$735,000

UNICEF - nutrition surveillance, health, and
water/sanitation activities country-wide	$1,650,000

Save the Children (SC)/US - nutrition surveillance in
northern Afghanistan	$206,488

UNOCHA - humanitarian coordination	$2,500,000

UNICEF - Water and Environmental Sanitation
activities	$2,500,000

ICRC - support for pre-positioning and mobilization of food and non-food
stocks for use within Afghanistan in addressing the needs of 540,000
drought and war-displaced people, as well as support for airlifts
	$2,500,000

WFP - support for a Joint Logistics Center and humanitarian air operations
$2,500,000

Total USAID/OFDA FY 2002 	$13,521,488


Grants - FY 2001 (Afghanistan)
ACF - health, nutrition, and health education for 530,000 beneficiaries in
Kabul and surrounding areas $1,483,000

ACTED - IDP camp management and support in Baghlan $70,000

ACTED - support via USAID/Almaty for shelter and nonfood assistance to
Afghan IDPs. $50,000

AirServe - humanitarian transport $200,000

CARE/US - food assistance for drought-affected populations in central,
western, and southern Afghanistan.  $415,000

CARE/US - livelihoods support for drought-affected populations in Wardak
and Ghazni. $465,000

CARE/US - water supply and health education in Kabul $145,000

Church World Service - humanitarian assessments $91,350

FAO - seed multiplication $200,000

GOAL - shelter, infrastructure, and agriculture displacement-prevention
activities in Samangan
$150,000

International Medical Aid (IMA) - health in Bamiyan and Samangan.
$100,000

IMC - health assistance for IDPs and local residents in Herat. $400,000

IRC - IDP assistance in partnership with local NGOs, including management
and support for Sakhi camp for 5,000 families in Mazar-e-Sharif $250,000

IRC - support for distribution of USAID/OFDA airlifted relief commodities
for Pakistan's Jalozai and Shamshatoo camps $50,000

Mercy Corps International (MCI) - emergency water relief and agricultural
livelihoods support aimed at preventing displacement in Helmand. $150,000

MCI - assistance to 3,000 war-affected IDPs with nonfood relief
commodities to meet basic heating, lighting, and cooking needs in Takhar
and Badakshan.
$1,494,000

MCI - support to vulnerable populations affected by the Taliban poppy ban
in the Helmand Valley $100,000

Save the Children/US (SC/US) - drought-related relief activities in a
range of sectors, including health with a focus on maternal and child
care; winterization for IDPs; and cash-for-work drought activities
including well and kareze repair and digging; and wheat seed distribution.
Benefits populations in Andkhoi, Faryab;  Mazar-e-Sharif, Balkh; and Kabul
$1,500,000

SC/US - nutrition surveillance in northern Afghanistan
$100,000

Shelter Now International (SNI/US) - food and nonfood assistance to
support host families sheltering 5,650 war-affected IDPs in the Rostaq
area of Takhar
$320,400

SNI/US - food-for-work construction of 4200 shelters plus water/sanitation
support in Herat's Maslakh IDP camp $1,500,000

UNCHS/Habitat - shelter for 12,500 IDP families in Herat. $350,000

UNCHS/Habitat - urban community-based drought and displacement response
countrywide $200,000

UNCHS/Habitat - emergency solid waste collection in Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif,
Kandahar, Herat, and Farah
$125,000

UNICEF - nutrition surveillance, health, and water/sanitation activities
country-wide $350,000

UNOCHA - support for the purchase of nonfood relief commodities for IDPs
($200,000); support for WFP-managed food programs and implementing
partners ($300,000); and support for continued air transport services for
humanitarian goods and cargo ($100,000).
$600,000

UNOCHA - support for humanitarian coordination.
$600,000

Total USAID/OFDA FY 2001 	$12,599,441
Total USAID/OFDA FY 2002	$13,521,488



Grants - FY 2002 (Tajikistan)

CARE - purchase and distribution of winter wheat seeds and fertilizer,
benefiting an estimated 4,500 drought-affected families

Total USAID/OFDA Tajikistan FY 2002 	$998,180


USAID/FFP

WFP - 63,810 MT of P.L. 480 Title II wheat and complementary commodities,
including a contribution for Afghan refugees in Pakistan of 4,000 MT
valued at $1.9 million

Total USAID/FFP FY 2001	$31,200,000



USAID/DG

UNCHS/Habitat - assistance for rebuilding communities for Afghan refugees
and refugees in Pakistan and Afghanistan $200,000

International Human Rights Law Group - support for Afghan refugee women in
Pakistan $250,000

Total USAID/DG FY 2001 $450,000



USDA

WFP - 240,200 MT of 416(b) wheat

Total USDA FY 2001. $99,800,000


State/PRM

(Note: State/PRM contributions to ICRC and UNHCR are for regional
programs.  Figures for Afghanistan-specific activities are estimates based
on a percentage of the regional total.)

ICRC - Funding for programs in Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan that serve
Afghan refugees and conflict victims $6,900,000

UNHCR - Funding for programs of the UNHCR in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and
Iran that serve Afghan refugees and internally displaced persons
$16,030,000

UNOCHA - Support for immediate emergency coordination and preparedness
measures for Afghan refugee programs $1,000,000

WFP - Transportation costs for delivery of U.S. food contributions
$589,069

CWS - Primary health care, preventive and reproductive health care, and
community health education for Afghan refugees in Pakistan and returnees
in Afghanistan $154,507

IMC - Health care assistance for Afghan refugees in Northwest Frontier
Province, Pakistan $535,695

IRC - Drought relief in the form of health care and water and sanitation
needs for Afghan refugees in Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan
$345,464

IRC - Support to Afghan refugees in Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan
through local NGO grants and local NGO capacity building $509,998

IRC - Basic health and sanitation services for Afghan refugees in 12 camps
in the Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan $137,265

IRC - Female education program providing support for primary and secondary
education, teacher training, and community participation for refugees in
the Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan $650,600

MCI - Health care and capacity building for Afghan refugees in Quetta,
Pakistan, with particular focus on refugee women and girls and other
vulnerable persons $633,392

MCI - Drought relief in the form of health care, nutrition, and water for
Afghan refugees in Baluchistan, Pakistan. $736,371

SC/US - Primary and reproductive health care and primary education
programs for Afghan refugees in Haripur and Baluchistan, Pakistan.
$1,511,778

SC/UK - support for child-focused local health education materials and
trains partner agencies to develop health education skills among refugee
populations in Pakistan and Afghanistan.  $94,520

Total State/PRM FY 2001	$29,828,659
State/Humanitarian Demining (HDP)

The U.S. Humanitarian Demining Program provides $1.1 million in support of
HALO Trust, a British demining organization, and $1.7 million in financial
and in-kind contributions to the Mine Action Program for Afghanistan.

Total State/HDP FY 2001 $2,800,000



State/INL

U.N. Drug Control Program (UNDCP) - assistance with crop substitution for
former poppy farmers affected by the Taliban poppy ban in Nangarhar.

Total State/INL FY 2001	$1,500,000



Centers for Disease Control (CDC)

UNICEF - support for polio eradication in Afghanistan.

Total CDC FY 2001 $569,525




TOTAL USG Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan FY 2001/2002
$192,269,113

Total USAID/OFDA Assistance to Tajikistan FY 2002
$998,180



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