U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE (BHR)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
CENTRAL ASIA TASK FORCE
CENTRAL ASIA REGION - Complex Emergency
Situation Report #3, Fiscal Year (FY) 2001    October 18, 2001


Note: the last Situation Report, titled Afghanistan - Complex Emergency
Situation Report #2, FY 2002, was dated October 11, 2001.

Note: New text is underlined.

BACKGROUND

Two decades of war in Afghanistan, including a decade-long Soviet
occupation and ensuing civil strife, have left Afghanistan impoverished
and mired in an extended humanitarian crisis.  Government infrastructure,
including the ability to deliver the most basic health, education, and
other social services, has collapsed.  Significant resources are directed
to the war effort.  Severe restrictions by the Taliban, including a
restriction on women working outside the home, have added to the impact of
poverty, particularly on the many households lacking able-bodied adult
men.  The Taliban now controls about 90 percent of Afghanistan's
territory.

Humanitarian prospects worsened sharply in Afghanistan in September 2001
due to developments both inside and outside the country.  Osama bin Laden,
who currently resides in Afghanistan under Taliban protection, is the
leading suspect in the September 11 terrorist attack against the United
States.  Fears of a U.S. reprisal triggered a population exodus from major
Afghan cities, both towards other points in Afghanistan and towards the
country's borders.  The beginning of U.S. air strikes on October 7 caused
additional movement.  International staff of all relief agencies also
withdrew.  In addition, even prior to the September 11 there were signs
that relations between the international community and the Taliban were
worsening significantly.  These new developments added to an existing
crisis of extensive displacement stemming from civil conflict and a
debilitating three-year drought.  The new crisis has also threatened to
affect the entire region, with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR) predicting the influx of up to 1.5 million refugees to neighboring
countries in the event of substantial new conflict in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan:  Numbers Affected

Total population (CIA Factbook)    26,813,057

Refugees Since September 11, 2001 (UNHCR)
Pakistan   60,000
Iran   Unknown

Refugees Since September 2000 (UNHCR)
Pakistan   152,000

Old Caseload Refugees (UNHCR)
Iran   1,500,000
Pakistan   2,000,000

Internally Displaced (UN)
Since September, 2001   Unknown
Since 2000   900,000
Old Caseload   1,000,000



Total FY 2001/2002 U.S. Government (USG) Assistance to Afghanistan
$246,208,928

Total FY 2001/2002 USG Assistance to Tajikistan
$68,208,180



CURRENT SITUATION

Overview.  U.S. warplanes continued to strike Taliban and terrorist
training installations in Afghanistan in a second week of air strikes.
At the same time, a massive effort to feed Afghanistan's drought-stricken
population gathered speed.  U.S. military planes continued to drop
humanitarian daily rations from the air, while ground transport into
Afghanistan of food provided by the U.S.  Government and other donors
increased.

Relief efforts by local staff of international NGOs continued, both in
Afghanistan's countryside, where the majority of Afghans live and which
has not been directly affected by the new war, and in the cities.  Within
cities, however, harassment of relief workers by Taliban forces, which has
been a persistent problem, increased in intensity and scope, and was
accompanied by an increased breakdown of law and order.  In Mazar-
e-Sharif, there were numerous reports of looting, vehicle theft, and
restrictions on NGOs.  Military commanders reportedly had asked several
relief agencies in Mazar-e-Sharif for room to quarter their troops.

Kandahar, a stronghold of both the Taliban and bin Laden's Al Qaeda
terrorist network, also experienced a severe deterioration in law and
order.  Taliban forces were reportedly seeking refuge from bombing in UN
and NGO compounds, while equipment and vehicles were stolen, often by
unidentified armed "non- Afghans."  (The term "foreigner" or "non-Afghan"
is frequently used by Afghans to describe Al Quaeda forces, most of whom
are not of Afghan nationality.)  In some cases local Taliban authorities
intervened, resulting in shootouts.  Mine action agencies and their staff
appeared to be particularly targeted, with reports of beating of staff and
equipment theft in several cities.

Political/Military.  As of October 17, reports indicated that Northern
Alliance forces were closing in on the key northern city of
Mazar-e-Sharif, apparently aided by U.S. bombing of Taliban military
positions in the area.  However, the Taliban has reportedly beefed up its
forces in an effort to thwart the capture of the city, which it overtook
in 1998.  A Northern Alliance capture of Mazar-e-Sharif could potentially
re-open critical supply lines to Uzbekistan, cut off Taliban supply lines,
and facilitate any opposition effort in the west to seize Herat from the
Taliban.

Food Aid.  The food aid situation in Afghanistan appeared to become more
uncertain when the Taliban military seized control of U.N. World Food
Program (WFP) warehouses in Kandahar and Kabul on the evening of October
16.  Some 6,900 metric tons (MT)  of food are stored in the two
warehouses, representing more than half of WFP's total stocks inside
Afghanistan, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA).  As of October 18, the Taliban had released
control of the warehouse in Kabul back to WFP, but there was no new
information on the Kandahar warehouse.

With the exception of the October 16 incidents, WFP has reported little
interference from the Taliban in its food operations.  Since the October 7
beginning of air strikes, WFP has increased food deliveries into
Afghanistan from 200 MT per day to 900 MT per day, for a total of 5,000 MT
by October 15.  WFP has delivered food aid by road to various regions of
Afghanistan from Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and is planning
additional deliveries including through Iran.

Pakistan. Continuing violent protests in Pakistan, coupled with security
concerns, threatened to block urgent contingency preparations for a
possible refugee influx.  In particular, UNHCR reported that it and
partner agencies were unable to continue work on preparing contingency
camp sites in Pakistan's border provinces of Baluchistan and the North
West Frontier Province (NWFP) for five days.  On October 17, however,
UNHCR reported that work had resumed.  Relief items for a possible refugee
influx continued to arrive in Pakistan, as well; as of October 15 UNHCR
had tents and plastic sheeting stockpiled in its warehouse in Quetta,
Baluchistan to shelter up to 100,000 people.  UNHCR has additional stocks
in Peshawar to shelter up to 80,000 people.  More flights are expected
within the next few days containing more than 6,200 additional plastic
sheets, 10,350 additional blankets, rubb halls (large portable warehouses
often used for food storage and refugee processing centers), and refugee
registration forms.

UNHCR reported October 17 that the number of Afghan refugees arriving in
Baluchistan has increased sharply, with up to 8,000 Afghans crossing the
border in the last four days.  UNHCR had earlier reported that as many as
2,000 refugees per day were arriving in Pakistan for weeks; however, some
relief agencies have questioned this figure.  Regardless, the feared
massive influx of up to 300,000 refugees in the medium term and 1.5
million in the longer term as of yet did not appear to be materializing.
Nonetheless, contingency planning continued to move forward, given the
large number of uncertain factors, including food shortages, potential
ground combat and front-line shifts, and instability, that could still
lead to much greater displacement.

Iran.  There continued to be no reports of refugees crossing to Iran, and
UNHCR reported from an unconfirmed source that there are no reports of
Afghans moving towards Iranian borders, either.  To the contrary, ongoing
spontaneous returns from Iran to Afghanistan have picked up, according to
UNHCR, following a drop-off in traffic immediately after October 7.

Iran is serving as a staging area for cross-border relief deliveries to
Afghanistan's west.  On October 16, an International Organization for
Migration (IOM) convoy departed the Iranian city of Mashad for Herat,
carrying locally purchased relief supplies including 8,000 blankets, as
well as water jugs and kerosene lanterns.

Central Asia.  On October 16, WFP appealed for 67,000 MT of food for
emergency assistance for up to one million Tajiks affected by drought
through June 2002.  An IOM convoy from Tajikistan carrying ground
sheeting, quilts, and other relief commodities reached the Afghanistan
border crossing point of Farkhar, where the items were transferred to
ACTED for distribution to 8,000 IDP families in the northeastern province
of Badakhshan.

Afghanistan: Northern Region.  On October 17, UNOCHA described the
situation in Mazar-e-Sharif as "extremely volatile," due to the
increasingly close fighting between Taliban forces and the Northern
Alliance, which has now reportedly reached the outskirts of the city.  In
addition, incidents of looting, attacks, and a general breakdown in law
and order are increasing.

Afghanistan: Central Region and Kabul. The pace of civilians leaving the
Afghan capital of Kabul has reportedly diminished to less than 300
families a day.  Previously, an unknown number of families were reported
to be leaving the capital towards the central Hazarajat region as well as
northeast towards the Northern Alliance-controlled Panjshir Valley.
Reportedly, many civilians had been leaving Kabul at night for safety to
nearby rural areas, returning to the city during the day.  According to
one report, fear of aerial bombing raids among the civilian population has
diminished as the targeted nature of the attacks has become clear.

Afghanistan: Southern and Eastern Regions.  According to relief agency
sources, most of the population departed Jalalabad within the last week,
leaving only ten percent of the population behind. Most people had
reportedly moved to nearby rural areas to live with family and friends.
Jalalabad has a population of roughly 250,000, according to a 1999 survey.

Although some of the population of Kandahar fled the city in the early
days of the bombing campaign, some people have now returned, according to
reports.  As in Kabul, residents are reportedly gaining confidence that
bombings are specifically targeted.  However, others have crossed into
Pakistan (see "Pakistan," above).  In one area called Spin Boldak, near
the Pakistani border, Taliban forces have reportedly ordered civilians to
leave in preparation for a possible U.S. ground attack.

Afghanistan:  Western Region. UNOCHA reported October 17 that UNICEF has
begun distributing 4,000 blankets and 400 health kits in Herat.  IOM
completed the distribution of 10,000 woolen blankets in Herat on October
14.



USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

New Developments

On October 11, USAID Administrator Andrew S.  Natsios announced a
five-point humanitarian assistance strategy for Afghanistan.  The strategy
is designed to reduce death rates through the opening of all possible
pipelines for lifesaving commodities; minimize population movements by
assisting people in home areas when possible; lower and stabilize food
prices through selling of food to local merchants; ensure that aid reaches
intended beneficiaries; and begin developmental relief programs designed
to encourage Afghans to start rebuilding their homes, villages, farms,
markets and villages where possible. Background On October 4, President
George W. Bush announced a $320 million assistance program for
Afghanistan.  Funding will support assistance to Afghans both inside and
outside Afghanistan's borders, with support for food and a wide variety of
other relief needs.

On October 4, Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs
Christina B. Rocca redeclared a complex humanitarian disaster in
Afghanistan for FY 2002.  To date, FY 2001 and FY 2002 USG humanitarian
assistance for Afghans provided by USAID/OFDA, USAID/FFP, USAID/Democracy
& Governance (DG), USDA, the Department of State's Bureau of Population,
Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM), the Department of State/Department of
Defense Demining Program, the Department of State's Bureau International
Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (State/INL) and the Centers for
Disease Control (CDC)  totals $246,208,928, including both assistance
inside Afghanistan and assistance to Afghan refugees in neighboring
countries.

In Tajikistan, On October 10, 2001, U.S. Chargé d'Affaires James A.
Boughner declared a disaster due to drought, and requested funds for a
seed and fertilizer distribution program.  USAID/OFDA responded by
providing $998,180 through the U.S. Embassy to CARE for the purchase and
distribution of winter wheat seeds and fertilizer.


USAID/OFDA Assistance

Personnel

To respond to the Afghanistan crisis, USAID/OFDA deployed DART to Pakistan
on June 17.  The DART continues to operate in Islamabad.  The DART is
coordinating with the Pakistan-based Afghanistan relief community,
including USG partners.

In April 2001, USAID/OFDA and State/PRM deployed an assessment team to
western and northern Afghanistan including Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif to
assess drought and nutrition conditions in affected areas.

Airlifts and Commodities - FY 2002
Airlift to Turkmenistan - two chartered planes carrying 1,000 rolls of
plastic sheeting for emergency shelter arrived in Ashgabat October 18 and
were consigned to UNICEF.  Value includes transport.
$403,200

Airlifts and Commodities - FY 2001
First Airlift to Herat - 30,000 blankets from USAID/OFDA's stockpile to
ICRC for drought- affected families in Ghor (including transport)
$250,841

Second and third airlifts to Herat - 610 tents, 17,500 blankets, 4,800
five-gallon water jugs, four metric tons of high-protein biscuits, and
three modified World Health Organization kits, each with sufficient
supplies to treat 1,000 people for one month, via two USAID/OFDA-chartered
planes on February 9 and 16 (including transport)
$650,850

Airlift to Peshawar - 500 tents, 5,000 blankets and 100 rolls of plastic
sheeting from USAID/OFDA's stockpile for consignment to IRC for use in the
Jalozai and Shamshatoo Afghan refugee camps, plus two health kits
(including transport)
$239,000

New Grants - FY 2002 (Afghanistan)
ACTED - pre-positioning of food and non-food emergency relief items in
northeastern Afghanistan.
$5,500,000

GOAL - food, shelter, water/sanitation, and winterization in Samangan and
Jozjan Provinces.
$5,500,000

Save the Children/US - food programs in Faryab and Sar-e-Pul, and
emergency heating for hospitals in Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif.
$2,000,000

Grants - FY 2002 (Afghanistan)
ACTED - IDP camp management and support in Baghlan
$630,000

FAO - seed multiplication
$300,000

International Medical Corps (IMC) - health assistance for IDPs and local
residents in Herat.
$735,000

UNICEF - nutrition surveillance, health, and water/sanitation activities
country-wide
$1,650,000

Save the Children (SC)/US - nutrition surveillance in
northern Afghanistan
$206,488

UNOCHA - humanitarian coordination
$2,500,000

UNICEF - Water and Environmental Sanitation activities
$2,500,000

ICRC - support for pre-positioning and mobilization of food and non-food
stocks for use within Afghanistan in addressing the needs of 540,000
drought and war- displaced people, as well as support for airlifts
$2,500,000

WFP - support for a Joint Logistics Center and humanitarian air operations
$2,500,000

Total USAID/OFDA FY 2002 	$26,954,103



Grants - FY 2001 (Afghanistan)

ACF - health, nutrition, and health education for 530,000 beneficiaries in
Kabul and surrounding areas
$1,483,000

ACTED - IDP camp management and support in Baghlan
$70,000

ACTED - support via USAID/Almaty for shelter and nonfood assistance to
Afghan IDPs.
$50,000

AirServe - humanitarian transport
$200,000

CARE/US - food assistance for drought-affected populations in central,
western, and southern Afghanistan.
$415,000

CARE/US - livelihoods support for drought-affected populations in Wardak
and Ghazni.
$465,000

CARE/US - water supply and health education in Kabul $145,000

Church World Service - humanitarian assessments
$91,350

FAO - seed multiplication
$200,000

GOAL - shelter, infrastructure, and agriculture displacement-prevention
activities in Samangan
$150,000

International Medical Aid (IMA) - health in Bamiyan and Samangan.
$100,000

IMC - health assistance for IDPs and local residents in Herat.
$400,000

IRC - IDP assistance in partnership with local NGOs, including management
and support for Sakhi camp for 5,000 families in Mazar-e-Sharif
$250,000

IRC - support for distribution of USAID/OFDA airlifted relief commodities
for Pakistan's Jalozai and Shamshatoo camps
$50,000

Mercy Corps International (MCI) - emergency water relief and agricultural
livelihoods support aimed at preventing displacement in Helmand.
$150,000

MCI - assistance to 3,000 war-affected IDPs with nonfood relief
commodities to meet basic heating, lighting, and cooking needs in Takhar
and Badakshan.
$1,494,000

MCI - support to vulnerable populations affected by the Taliban poppy ban
in the Helmand Valley $100,000

Save the Children/US (SC/US) - drought-related relief activities in a
range of sectors, including health with a focus on maternal and child
care; winterization for IDPs; and cash-for-work drought activities
including well and kareze repair and digging; and wheat seed distribution.
Benefits populations in Andkhoi, Faryab;  Mazar-e-Sharif, Balkh; and Kabul
$1,500,000

SC/US - nutrition surveillance in northern Afghanistan
$100,000

Shelter Now International (SNI/US) - food and nonfood assistance to
support host families sheltering 5,650 war-affected IDPs in the Rostaq
area of Takhar.
$320,400

SNI/US - food-for-work construction of 4200 shelters plus water/sanitation
support in Herat's Maslakh IDP camp
$1,500,000

UNCHS/Habitat - shelter for 12,500 IDP families in Herat.
$350,000

UNCHS/Habitat - urban community-based drought and displacement response
countrywide
$200,000

UNCHS/Habitat - emergency solid waste collection in Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif,
Kandahar, Herat, and Farah
$125,000

UNICEF - nutrition surveillance, health, and water/sanitation activities
country-wide
$350,000

UNOCHA - support for the purchase of nonfood relief commodities for IDPs
($200,000); support for WFP- managed food programs and implementing
partners ($300,000); and support for continued air transport services for
humanitarian goods and cargo ($100,000).
$600,000

UNOCHA - support for humanitarian coordination.
$600,000

Total USAID/OFDA FY 2001 	$12,599,441
Total USAID/OFDA FY 2002	$26,954,103



Grants - FY 2002 (Tajikistan)

CARE - purchase and distribution of winter wheat seeds and fertilizer,
benefiting an estimated 4,500 drought-affected families

Total USAID/OFDA Tajikistan FY 2002 	$998,180



USAID/FFP

FY 2002

WFP - 72,700 MT of P.L. 480 Title II wheat and complementary commodities.


FY 2001

WFP - 63,810 MT of P.L. 480 Title II wheat and complementary commodities,
including a contribution for Afghan refugees in Pakistan of 4,000 MT
valued at $1.9 million

Total USAID/FFP FY 2001	$31,200,000
Total USAID/FFP FY 2002	$38,555,000


USAID/DG

UNCHS/Habitat - assistance for rebuilding communities for Afghan refugees
and refugees in Pakistan and Afghanistan
$200,000

International Human Rights Law Group - support for Afghan refugee women in
Pakistan
$250,000

Total USAID/DG FY 2001	$450,000


USDA

WFP -  240,200 MT of 416(b) wheat

Total USDA FY 2001.	$99,800,000



State/PRM

(Note: State/PRM contributions to ICRC and UNHCR are for regional
programs.  Figures for Afghanistan- specific activities are estimates
based on a percentage of the regional total.)

ICRC - Funding for programs in Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan that serve
Afghan refugees and conflict victims
$6,900,000

UNHCR - Funding for programs of the UNHCR in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and
Iran that serve Afghan refugees and internally displaced persons
$16,030,000

UNOCHA - Support for immediate emergency coordination and preparedness
measures for Afghan refugee programs
$1,000,000

WFP - Transportation costs for delivery of U.S. food contributions
$589,069

CWS - Primary health care, preventive and reproductive health care, and
community health education for Afghan refugees in Pakistan and returnees
in Afghanistan
$154,507

IMC - Health care assistance for Afghan refugees in Northwest Frontier
Province, Pakistan
$535,695

IRC - Drought relief in the form of health care and water and sanitation
needs for Afghan refugees in Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan
$345,464

IRC - Support to Afghan refugees in Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan
through local NGO grants and local NGO capacity building
$509,998

IRC - Basic health and sanitation services for Afghan refugees in 12 camps
in the Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan
$137,265

IRC - Female education program providing support for primary and secondary
education, teacher training, and community participation for refugees in
the Northwest Frontier Province, Pakistan
$650,600

MCI - Health care and capacity building for Afghan refugees in Quetta,
Pakistan, with particular focus on refugee women and girls and other
vulnerable persons
$633,392

MCI - Drought relief in the form of health care, nutrition, and water for
Afghan refugees in Baluchistan, Pakistan.
$736,371

SC/US - Primary and reproductive health care and primary education
programs for Afghan refugees in Haripur and Baluchistan, Pakistan.
$1,511,778

SC/UK - support for child-focused local health education materials and
trains partner agencies to develop health education skills among refugee
populations in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
$94,520

Total State/PRM FY 2001	$29,828,659
Department of Defense (DOD)
Between October 7 and October 17, DOD dropped 454,000 humanitarian daily
rations (HDRs), valued at $4.30 each, into Afghanistan.

Total DOD FY 2002	$1,952,200


State/Humanitarian Demining (HDP)

The U.S. Humanitarian Demining Program provides $1.1 million in support of
HALO Trust, a British demining organization, and $1.7 million in financial
and in-kind contributions to the Mine Action Program for Afghanistan.

Total State/HDP FY 2001	$2,800,000

State/INL

U.N. Drug Control Program (UNDCP) - assistance with crop substitution for
former poppy farmers affected by the Taliban poppy ban in Nangarhar.

Total State/INL FY 2001	$1,500,000



Centers for Disease Control (CDC)
UNICEF - support for polio eradication in Afghanistan.

Total CDC FY 2001	$569,525







TOTAL USG Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan FY 2001
$178,747,625

TOTAL USG Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan FY 2002
$67,461,303

TOTAL USG Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan FY 2001/2002
$246,208,928


Total USG Assistance to Tajikistan FY 2001   $67,210,000


Note:  FY 2001 USG assistance to Tajikistan included assistance through
USAID/OFDA, USAID/FFP, USDA, the Department of State, and Freedom Support
Act funds administered through a variety of agencies.

Total USAID/OFDA Assistance to Tajikistan FY 2002
$998,180

Total USG Assistance to Tajikistan FY 2001/2002
$68,208,180



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