Food and Agriculture Organization
Special Report
Famine Threatens Afghanistan While Food
Supplies Tighten in Neighbouring Countries
25 October 2001


FOOD SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN

A deepening food crisis in Afghanistan, which poses a serious threat of
mass starvation, comes at a time when the food supply position in the
neighbouring countries is also seriously undermined by a prolonged
drought. This year's food production in Pakistan, the Islamic Republic of
Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan has suffered a significant
reduction due to serious drought. The unfavourable food supply situation,
which has prompted emergency food assistance in some of these countries,
therefore gives little comfort to millions of displaced and resident
Afghans who in the past could meet part of their food needs with supplies
from neighbouring countries. Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran
have been supporting millions of refugees from past conflicts but their
capacity to cope with the new arrivals is seriously compromised due to
insufficient resources.

Even before the events of 11 September, Afghanistan was gripped by a grave
food crisis following three consecutive years of drought and intensifying
economic problems due to continuing civil conflict. An FAO/WFP mission to
the country last May found evidence of emerging and widespread famine
conditions in many parts of the country, where people had exhausted their
coping strategies by selling their assets and migrating in search of food
elsewhere within or outside the country. The military operations since 7
October have triggered fresh waves of population displacement, aggravating
the already dire humanitarian situation.

While the majority of the around 23 million Afghans are facing severe food
supply difficulties, some 7.5 million most affected people are in
desperate need of food aid. WFP plans to deliver 52 000 tonnes of food aid
per month to feed the most vulnerable people, both refugees (1.5 million)
and resident population (6 million) in Afghanistan. However, transport and
distribution difficulties are hampering the delivery of the required
volumes. Some of the food would have to be airlifted to inaccessible areas
of the country, in particular the central highlands before the onset of
harsh winter in mid-November.

The current adverse situation coincides with the planting season for wheat
which accounts for 80 percent of the country's total cereal production.
With the population largely on the move, serious shortages of inputs and a
disruption of farming activities by military operations, cereal production
in 2001 to meet consumption needs during 2001/02 (July/June) is set to
decline significantly. This would further aggravate the already grave food
supply situation in the country.

A decade-long destructive war with the Soviet Union and the subsequent
civil strife for nearly 13 years have devastated infrastructure in
agriculture and other sectors of Afghanistan's economy. The irrigation
systems are in complete ruin, while agricultural services are virtually
non-existent and farmers have little access to necessary agricultural
input supplies. Thousands of hectares of prime agricultural land have been
taken out of production due mainly to lack of irrigation and the presence
of millions of land mines. Many communities have been cut off from the
rest of the country due to the destruction of roads, bridges and other
communication facilities. Fruit trees and forests, once a major source of
foreign exchange, have virtually disappeared. Livestock production,
another major export item and source of food as well as farm power, has
been severely reduced. During the past three years, the country has
witnessed a devastating drought which compounded the impact of years of
conflict and brought a large section of the population to the brink of
starvation. The 2001 cereal output, estimated at about 2 million tonnes,
is about one-half of the production in 1998.

As a result of reduced output in 2001, cereal import requirements in the
current marketing year (July-June 2001/02) were forecast at a near record
volume of some 2.2 million tonnes of which commercial imports were
initially projected at 760 000 tonnes. Given the current situation,
commercial imports may be only one- third of the earlier estimated volume.
Assuming that all of the planned emergency food aid of 494 000 tonnes be
delivered by June 2002, the overall deficit in 2001/02 (July/June) is
still likely to be of the order of 1.5 million tonnes of cereals. Only a
massive mobilization of food and other relief assistance and its
distribution, particularly to the vulnerable groups, will avert the threat
of an impending mass starvation in the country.

When the conflict is finally resolved, mid-term agricultural
rehabilitation/reconstruction measures in Afghanistan will need to address
the reconstruction of irrigation systems, input supply to farmers, farm
power, rehabilitation of orchards, livestock and forestry sub-sectors,
extension and education and institutional capacity-building. FAO has
estimated that some US$200 million would be required for the
implementation of a countrywide agricultural sector emergency relief and
rehabilitation programme.



SITUATION IN NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES

Pakistan

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the
country in May/June 2001 found that rainfall was between 50 and 80 percent
below normal in most parts of the country during the last winter cropping
season (January-March 2001). Last year's Monsoon rainfall was also more
than 40 percent below normal. Consequently, rainfed agriculture and
vegetation in the grazing lands were severely affected.

Rainfed wheat production, estimated at about 541 000 tonnes in 2001, was
nearly 70 percent below the average of the last five years and 62 percent
below last year's reduced crop. However, as about 90 percent of wheat
production is irrigated, the overall impact of the drought was not as
great. Nevertheless, total wheat production (irrigated and rainfed) in
2001 was estimated at 18.73 million tonnes, still significantly below the
21 million tonnes harvested last year. The 2001 rice crop, planted from
May for harvest in October/November, was forecast at a reduced 3.9 million
tonnes (milled) due to water shortages in irrigation schemes, compared to
4.8 million tonnes in year 2000 and the average of 4.6 million tonnes for
the last five years. With additional coarse grains crop of about 1.9
million tonnes, total cereal production in 2001 is, therefore, estimated
at 26.5 million tonnes, 13 percent below last year's harvest.

Overall cereal supplies will be just sufficient to meet the consumption
requirements in the 2001/02 marketing year. Domestic consumption and other
utilization requirements are expected to be met from current production
and a drawdown of large wheat stocks from last year's good crop. Some
exports of wheat due to earlier contracts are also forecast. Rice exports
are anticipated to be lower than last year's volume of 2 million tonnes.
However, the prolonged drought has seriously eroded the food security of a
large number of farmers, particularly in Balochistan, parts of Sindh and
Cholistan in Punjab.

Moderate to heavy monsoon rains in the last week of June and early July,
particularly in the northeastern parts of Punjab and Kashmir, and in the
last dekad of July in Potohar, the North-West Frontier Province and other
northern areas caused floods which left a number of victims and hundreds
of people homeless.

Pakistan hosts some 2 million Afghan refugees from the earlier conflict.
However, refugee numbers are on the increase due to recent events.



Islamic Republic of Iran

The disastrous consequences of three consecutive years of drought continue
to be felt in all sectors of the economy. A UN inter-agency report
released in July estimated that about 90 percent of the population (urban,
rural, and nomadic) have been severely affected. The shortage of water in
rivers and the rapidly falling water tables have resulted in an acute
scarcity of drinking water in both rural and urban areas. Large sections
of the rural population and their livestock in the affected provinces have
started migrating to other areas in search of water. An estimated 200 000
nomadic livestock owners are reported to have lost their only source of
livelihood.

Tentative production figures for 2001 indicate a wheat output of 7.5
million tonnes compared to the past five- year average of 9.7 million
tonnes. Production of barley, maize and paddy is also forecast to be below
average.

Flash floods on 10 August 2001 hit the northeastern provinces of Golestan,
Khorasan and Semnan, with an estimated 1.2 million people affected in
Golestan, the most severely affected province. The financial loss in the
agriculture sector (including livestock) has been estimated at US$23
million, and about 752 000 hectares of agricultural land were seriously
damaged.

The country is supporting more than 1.5 million Afghan refugees from the
earlier conflict.



Tajikistan

Drought, water shortages, dilapidated irrigation systems and structural
problems have worsened the food supply situation this year compared to
last year when a large deficit was experienced, with food supplies
remaining very tight throughout the year. The two main rivers, Amu and
Syr, feeding the extensive irrigation system of the country, have been
flowing at about 50 percent of the average levels. Precipitation levels
are estimated to be about 60 percent of the average annual levels, in
particular during the crucial months of March and April for the wheat
crop. Agricultural inputs, particularly quality seeds and fertilizers, are
in short supply. Agricultural machinery is also in short supply and
inadequate to meet demand. In addition, about 40- 50 percent of the water
lifting equipment and about 60 percent of the heavy machinery used for
canal and drainage maintenance are out of order, which have significantly
reduced the efficiency of the irrigation system.

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited the
country between June and July 2001, estimated the total cereal production
at 303 000 tonnes compared with 355 000 tonnes in 2000. Wheat output, the
main staple crop, is estimated at 233 000 tonnes this year compared to 283
000 tonnes last year and 366 000 tonnes in 1999.

Cereal import requirement (mainly wheat) for 2001/02 marketing year
(July/June) is estimated at 788 000 tonnes. After taking into account a
projected commercial import capacity of 400 000 tonnes and pledged food
aid of 43 000 tonnes, the uncovered deficit is estimated at 345 000
tonnes. A food deficit of this magnitude for an impoverished population,
if not addressed, would have dire food security consequences.  Due to a
similar situation last year and lack of alternative sources of income,
many households have exhausted their coping strategies and need emergency
food assistance.

WFP has been providing emergency food assistance to 1.6 million people
under vulnerable group feeding (910 000 people) and food for asset
rehabilitation (250 000 people) programmes since October 2000. The current
Emergency Operation is expected to come to an end by December 2001 when a
total of 72 468 tonnes of wheat flour, 2 050 tonnes of vegetable oil, 1
200 tonnes of pulses and 700 tonnes of salt would have been distributed.



Uzbekistan

Severe water shortages and drought two years in succession have
significantly impacted crop production.  Water flows in the two main
sources of irrigation, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers are reported to
be about 40 percent of the average flows, while record hot and dry weather
conditions have increased demand for irrigation water. In addition, the
available scarce water is reported to be contaminated with high levels of
salinity.

This year's total grain output is not expected to exceed 3.4 million
tonnes, about 500 000 tonnes less than the poor harvest of last year and
about one million tonnes less than in 1999 when production was considered
average. Wheat production is estimated at 3.2 million tonnes and rice at
100 000 tonnes, which compares with 1999 production levels of 3.6 million
tonnes of wheat and 421 000 tonnes of rice. The worst affected areas are
Karakalpakstan and Khorzam autonomous regions, where the spring-sown area
and output have fallen by half. Cotton, the main export crop, is forecast
to fall far short of the official target output of 3.9 million tonnes
(cottonseed).

The import requirement in 2001/02 is tentatively estimated at about 0.9
million tonnes, roughly 293 000 tonnes higher than the preceding year's
imports. The Government has appealed for international assistance in the
rehabilitation of the irrigation systems, desalinisation equipment and
targeted food aid in some areas.  UNOCHA estimates that nearly 600 000
people particularly in Karakalpakstan and Khorzam may face food shortages
unless assisted. An FAO/WFP mission in October 2000 found that 45 000
people in Karakalpakstan alone had experienced severe food shortages.



Turkmenistan

Drought and irrigation water shortages for two years in succession have
affected crop production. Reservoirs fed by the Amu Darya, providing
nearly 90 percent of the country's irrigation needs, have been
significantly lower than the previous year, while the Murghab river
supplying irrigation water to Mary province has been virtually dry for
most part of the cropping season this year.

FAO tentatively forecasts grain output at about 1.5 million tonnes,
similar to its estimates of 2000, including 1.4 million tonnes of wheat,
50 000 tonnes of barley, 20 000 tonnes of maize and 20 000 tonnes of rice.
Grain production levels were maintained due to some increase in area under
wheat. The worst affected areas are once again Mary province (bordering
the Islamic Republic of Iran and Afghanistan) and Dashagouz (bordering
Karaklpakstan region of Uzbekistan). The cereal import requirement for
2000/01 is estimated at about 40 000 tonnes. Despite preliminary reports
of food shortages and concerns over the tight food supply situation in the
country, the Government has not appealed for any international assistance.

This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO Secretariat with
information from official and unofficial sources. Since conditions may
change rapidly, please contact Mr. Abdur Rashid, Chief, ESCG, FAO, (Telex
610181 FAO I; Fax: 0039-06-5705-4495, E-Mail (Internet): giews1@fao.org)
for further information if required.



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