U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE (BHR)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
CENTRAL ASIA TASK FORCE
CENTRAL ASIA REGION - Complex Emergency
Situation Report #4 (FY02)    October 25, 2001


Note: this Situation Report updates previous Central Asia Task Force
Situation Reports and Fact Sheets.  New information is italicized.

Background

Two decades of war in Afghanistan, including a decade-long Soviet
occupation and ensuing civil strife, have left Afghanistan impoverished
and mired in an extended humanitarian crisis.  Government infrastructure,
including the ability to deliver the most basic health, education, and
other social services, has collapsed.  Significant resources are directed
to the war effort.  Severe restrictions by the Taliban, including a
restriction on women working outside the home, have added to the impact of
poverty, particularly on the many households lacking able-bodied adult
men.  The Taliban controls about 90 percent of Afghanistan's territory.

Humanitarian prospects worsened sharply in Afghanistan in September 2001
due to developments both inside and outside the country.  Osama bin Laden,
who resides in Afghanistan under Taliban protection, is the leading
suspect in the September 11 terrorist attack against the United States.
Fears of a U.S. reprisal triggered a population exodus from major Afghan
cities, both towards other points in Afghanistan and towards the country's
borders.  The beginning of U.S. air strikes on October 7 caused additional
movement.  International staff of all relief agencies withdrew after
September 11.  Even prior to the September 11 there were signs that
relations between the international community and the Taliban were
worsening significantly.  These new developments added to an existing
crisis of extensive displacement stemming from civil conflict and a
debilitating three-year drought.

Afghanistan:  Numbers Affected  (* denotes new information)

Total population (CIA Factbook)  26,813,057
Refugees Since September 11, 2001
 (UNHCR) Pakistan 60,000
 Iran Unknown

Refugees Since September 2000
 (UNHCR) Pakistan 152,000
 Old Caseload Refugees (UNHCR)
   Iran     1,500,000
   Pakistan 2,000,000

Internally Displaced (U.N.) Since September 11, 2001 180,000
 * Since 2000 1,100,000
 * Old caseload 1,000,000

Total FY 2001/2002 U.S. Government (USG) Assistance to Afghanistan      $258,525,475
Total FY 2001/2002 USG Assistance to Tajikistan $68,208,180


Current Situation

Overview.  Efforts to bring food to Afghanistan's population continued to
gather pace, both through steadily increasing overland food aid deliveries
and through continued air drops of humanitarian daily rations (HDRs)
conducted by U.S. military planes.  U.S.-led airstrikes against Taliban
and Al Qaeda terrorist facilities continued for a third week, and reports
indicated that Taliban forces in urban areas were dispersing into
residential neighborhoods and occupying homes in an effort to hide among
civilian populations.  Meanwhile, The U.N. Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) warned of a broader region-wide crisis as a result of
instability and drought.


Political/Military.  On October 24, more than 1,000 Afghan leaders
gathered in Peshawar, Pakistan to discuss the establishment of a
broad-based government in the event of a Taliban collapse.  The difficulty
of such an undertaking was highlighted by reports that key political
figures, including representatives of Zahir Shah, the exiled former Afghan
monarch based in Rome, did not attend the gathering.

Although previous reports had indicated that Northern Alliance forces were
poised to seize control of the key northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif, strong
Taliban resistance held the opposition at bay through the week.  Reports
from inside the city indicated that fears of ground fighting reaching the
city had subsided.


Food Security & Food Aid.  On October 25, FAO reiterated a warning that
Afghanistan faces famine if adequate food aid is not delivered, and also
warned that the current crisis of displacement is coinciding with the fall
planting season, meaning that crops next year will be adversely effected.
In addition, FAO warned that the entire region is facing the consequences
of a debilitating three-year drought.  Wheat production is down 70 percent
below the five-year average in Pakistan.  In Iran, rural and urban
populations alike are affected by acute water shortages for both drinking
and agricultural use.  In Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the two main rivers
are far below normal levels, with grain output expected to be dramatically
reduced.  Turkmenistan is also affected.  FAO warned that in Pakistan and
Iran, diminished resources due the drought are seriously compromising the
ability to cope with any new refugee influx.

As of October 24, the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) had sufficient food
aid stocks in Afghanistan and the region to feed more than 5.6 million
people for one month (see table).  WFP reported October 24 that despite
the ongoing conflict it has increased daily food transport into
Afghanistan to 2,000 MT, putting it on target for the 53,000 MT per month
that WFP estimates will be necessary to feed Afghanistan's most vulnerable
populations through the winter.  WFP reported that in the last seven days,
it had brought food in to Afghanistan sufficient to feed two million
people.

WFP has signed agreements with 19 non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
with capacity to operate in rural areas.  The NGOs will distribute the
food to local beneficiaries after WFP delivers it.  WFP has shifted its
strategy towards shipping food stocks directly to rural areas rather than
using urban warehouses as hubs.  The strategy shift was prompted by last
week's Taliban seizure of two key warehouses in Kabul and Kandahar
containing more than half WFP's food stocks.  Although the Taliban
returned the Kabul warehouse to WFP, at last account, the Taliban still
had not relinquished control of the Kandahar warehouse in Kandahar.

WFP is rapidly moving to preposition food in the central Hazarajat region
and the Panjshir Valley.  Both of these mountainous regions become
inaccessible due to snow after mid-November.  WFP hopes to preposition
more than 22,000 MT in the Hazarajat and 6,000 MT in the Panjshir.  WFP
has estimated that up to two million people in these two regions could run
out of food by December without prepositioning.  WFP is currently
considering the possibility of airdropping up to 5,000 MT of food in these
areas if it does not reach its goals before roads become inaccessible.
Other areas, including Kandahar in the south and Mazar-e-Sharif and
Andkhoi in the north, are expected to remain accessible through the
winter.

Current WFP Food Aid Stocks
Location       Quantity (MT)
Afghanistan      11,035
Region           35,886
Total            46,921


Logistics.  Relief agencies are considering using the Uzbekistan border
city of Termez as a staging area for humanitarian aid.  Termez provides
access to Afghanistan's Northern Region via bridge and barge crossings
over the Amu Darya River. October 25 press reports indicated that the
Government of Uzbekistan had agreed to allow access for cross-border aid
deliveries via barge.  Uzbekistan closed the border at Termez after the
Taliban seized control of the nearby region in 1997.  The area on the
Afghanistan side of the border remains under Taliban control, but relief
agencies hope to use local staff to deliver the aid once it crosses the
river.

As of October 25, the Government of Turkmenistan had also agreed to allow
relief agencies to work in the border region.  Previously, this area was
designated as a military area and was closed.  In addition, WFP has
reached agreement with authorities in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to keep
supply routes into the northeastern province of Badakhshan cleared of
snow.

Pakistan. An influx of Afghans into Pakistan continued, bringing the total
number to between 50,000 and 60,000.  From October 19 to October 21, an
estimated 15,000 people crossed the border at Chaman near Quetta,
according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).  During the
same period, UNHCR reported that up to 15,000 people were waiting on the
Afghan side of the border to cross.  That population has now sharply
diminished; it is unclear from reports whether they were part of the
15,000 who entered Pakistan.  Some sources continue to report that the
total influx has been smaller.

Contingency campsite preparations continue in Pakistan; UNHCR is preparing
Killi Faizo, two kilometers from the Chaman border, as a transit area to
meet urgent humanitarian needs of recent arrivals.  UNHCR reported this
week that two new refugee campsites are ready in North West Frontier
Province (NWFP).  The Government of Pakistan has indicated that 11 sites
will be ready by the end of the month.

UNHCR Contingency Sites in Pakistan
Location                       Capacity   Population
Roghani/Tor Tangi (Baluch.)     50,000
Killi Faizo (Baluch.)           10,000       250
Mohmand/Khyber (NWFP)           22,000


Iran.  An increasing flow of new Afghans has been arriving near Iran's
borders.  On the evening of October 24 and early morning of October 25,
some 2,000 new Afghans arrived at the Iranian border, according to a UNHCR
source cited by Agence France-Presse.  The IDPs were moved to the Iranian
Government / Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) - administered site at
Makaki, in a Taliban-controlled area of Nimroz province.  Another 544
Afghans are at the Mile 46 campsite, in Northern Alliance-controlled
territory, according to UNOCHA.  Some 1,200 people have arrived inside
Iran at Zaranj, according to UNOCHA.

Iran / IRCS IDP Sites in Afghanistan
Location           Capacity   Population
Makaki  (Nimroz)     7,000      3,740
Mile 46                544
Total                4,284


Afghanistan.  UNOCHA estimated that there are 180,000 internally displaced
in Afghanistan since September 11, 2001.  This adds to a population
displaced in the last year of up to 1.1 million, according to the U.N.
The U.N. reported that most of the new internally displaced population are
from the Central and Eastern Regions, particularly Kunar, Laghman,
Nangarhar, Kabul, Kapisa, Paktia, and Khost.

Although reports of an increasing breakdown of law and order inside
Afghanistan continued, a few reports from the Northern Region bucked the
trend.  On October 25, the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan reported that
all cars seized by the Taliban were returned in Ghazni.  Two International
Organization for Migration (IOM) vehicles were also recovered in
Mazar-e-Sharif.  Also in Mazar-e-Sharif, several NGOs have been able to
re-open offices due to improved security, according to an October 25
UNOCHA report.  Conversely, in the northern province of Kunduz, UNOCHA
reported October 25 that IOM operations remained suspended.  Armed men had
previously blocked IOM efforts in Kunduz, where the situation has been
described as very tense.  The security situation continued to deteriorate
in the southern city of Kandahar.



USG Humanitarian Assistance

Background.

On October 4, President George W. Bush announced a $320 million assistance
program for Afghanistan.  Funding will support assistance to Afghans both
inside and outside Afghanistan's borders, with support for food and a wide
variety of other relief needs.

On October 4, Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs
Christina B. Rocca redeclared a complex humanitarian disaster in
Afghanistan for FY 2002.  To date, FY 2001 and FY 2002 USG humanitarian
assistance for Afghans provided by USAID/OFDA, USAID/FFP, USAID/Democracy
& Governance (DG), USDA, the Department of State's Bureau of Population,
Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM), the Department of State/Department of
Defense Demining Program, the Department of State's Bureau International
Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (State/INL) and the Centers for
Disease Control (CDC) totals $258,525,475, including both assistance
inside Afghanistan and assistance to Afghan refugees in neighboring
countries.

In Tajikistan, On October 10, 2001, U.S. Chargé d'Affaires James A.
Boughner declared a disaster due to drought, and requested funds for a
seed and fertilizer distribution program.  USAID/OFDA responded by
providing $998,180 through the U.S. Embassy to CARE for the purchase and
distribution of winter wheat seeds and fertilizer.



USAID/OFDA Assistance

Personnel

USAID/OFDA is deploying personnel to Uzbekistan to assess humanitarian
activities and logistical capacity in the area.

To respond to the Afghanistan crisis, USAID/OFDA deployed DART to Pakistan
on June 17.  The DART continues to operate in Islamabad.  The DART is
coordinating with the Pakistan-based Afghanistan relief community,
including USG partners.


In April 2001, USAID/OFDA and State/PRM deployed an assessment team to
western and northern Afghanistan including Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif to
assess drought and nutrition conditions in affected areas.

Airlifts and Commodities - FY 2002


Airlift to Islamabad - On October 23, Bear McConnell, Director of the
USAID Central Asia Task Force, arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan aboard a
U.S. Air Force C-17 cargo plane carrying 20,400 blankets from USAID/OFDA
stockpiles. An additional 15,000 blankets arrived via commercial transport
October 25. The blankets will be provided to UNHCR as a contingency for a
possible refugee influx.

Value including transport       $312,350


Health Kits to Pakistan -USAID/OFDA is providing five health kits to
UNICEF in Islamabad as an in-kind contribution.  the health kits can
support a population of 10,000 for up to three months.
$29,415


Airlift to Turkmenistan - two chartered planes carrying 1,000 rolls of
plastic sheeting for emergency shelter arrived in Ashgabat October 18 and
were consigned to UNICEF.  Value includes transport.
$403,200


New Grants - FY 2002 (Afghanistan)

IOM - support for distribution of food and non-food relief commodities in
Badghis, Faryab, and Balkh provinces.
$562,313


Grants - FY 2002 (Afghanistan)

ACTED - pre-positioning of food and non-food emergency relief items in
northeastern Afghanistan.
$5,500,000

ACTED - IDP camp management and support in Baghlan
$630,000

FAO - seed multiplication
$300,000

GOAL - food, shelter, water/sanitation, and winterization in Samangan and
Jozjan Provinces.
$5,500,000

International Medical Corps (IMC) - health assistance for IDPs and local
residents in Herat.  $735,000

UNICEF - nutrition surveillance, health, and water/sanitation activities
country-wide $1,650,000

Save the Children (SC)/US - nutrition surveillance in northern Afghanistan
$206,488

SC/US - food programs in Faryab and Sar-e-Pul, and emergency heating for
hospitals in Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif.
$2,000,000

UNOCHA - humanitarian coordination
$2,500,000

UNICEF - Water and Environmental Sanitation
activities $2,500,000

ICRC - support for pre-positioning and mobilization of food and non-food
stocks for use within Afghanistan in addressing the needs of 540,000
drought and war-displaced people, as well as support for airlifts
$2,500,000

WFP - support for a Joint Logistics Center and humanitarian air operations
$2,500,000

Total USAID/OFDA FY 2002        $27,828,766



Grants - FY 2002 (Tajikistan)

CARE - purchase and distribution of winter wheat seeds and fertilizer,
benefiting an estimated 4,500 drought-affected families

Total USAID/OFDA Tajikistan FY 2002
$998,180



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