U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
SOMALIA - Complex Emergency/Drought
Situation Report #1, Fiscal Year (FY) 2002    November 14, 2001


Note: the last situation report was dated September 12, 2000.

BACKGROUND

A complex emergency continues in Somalia for the tenth consecutive year.
Since the fall of Siad Barre's dictatorship in 1991, Somalia has lacked a
functioning and internationally recognized national government and has
been beset by inter-clan warfare.  Several regional authorities have been
established and a transitional national government (TNG) was created in
September 2000, but in each case the extent and scope of autonomy has been
limited or unstable.

Conflict between ethnic and political groups has disrupted markets,
preventing consistent availability of food items and health care supplies,
and has damaged existing health and water facilities.  Security issues
have complicated response efforts in the South, with kidnappings, looting
and killings threatening both local and expatriate humanitarian aid
workers.  In addition, three consecutive years of below-normal rainfall
have produced drought conditions throughout most of the country, with the
worst effects in the southern, central and northeastern areas.

Destitution among urban and pastoral groups, combined with ongoing
conflict in all areas, has led to displacement within Somalia and
migration to Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti.  Many internally displaced
people (IDPs) are located in urban areas, where conflict and strained
coping mechanisms prevent sustainable recovery.


NUMBERS AFFECTED AT A GLANCE

The World Food Program estimates that approximately 800,000 Somalis have
been affected by drought and civil strife in 2001.  The regions most
affected by drought are in southern, central and northeastern areas of
Somalia.  Conflict has been most prevalent in the South, although
political conflict has erupted recently in the Northeast and Northwest.
The affected populations consist of agriculturalists, pastoralists and
urban laborers.

There are also 350,000 internally displaced Somalis, and an additional
450,000 are refugees in Kenya, Djibouti and Ethiopia, according to the
March 2001 UN Consolidated Appeal for Somalia.


Total FY 2001 USAID/OFDA Assistance to Somalia    $5,599,069
Total FY 2001 USG Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia    $21,464,746



CURRENT SITUATION

Overview.

Political developments and poor rains in 2001 threaten to reverse the
early signs of recovery seen in Somalia in late 2000 and early 2001.
Challenges to administrative bodies established in the South, the
Northwest and the Northeast have increased the incidence of small-scale
conflict, thereby disrupting markets and humanitarian relief activities.
Livestock trade remains nearly paralyzed due to a ban on livestock imports
from Somalia imposed by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen and Oman.
Furthermore, assessments of the 2001 Gu harvest, which normally provides
75% of the country's cereals, predict harvest levels up to 50% below
normal in some areas of southern Somalia.  Recurring security problems
threaten to exacerbate the impact of these developments and prevent
effective humanitarian response if the situation deteriorates further.


- Food Security.

The 2001 Gu rains (April - June)  were sparse and inconsistent in
agriculture-intensive areas of Bay Region and in some adjacent areas of
Gedo and Bakool.  The poor rainfall, combined with pest damage, has
destroyed much of the sorghum crops in the area.  Crop establishment
assessments conducted by the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU) and the
Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) predict that Bay and Bakool regions may
produce 91% and 67% less cereals than last year, respectively.  Because
maize crops were less affected, regions where maize is favored over
sorghum should have higher production levels.

The most recent reports estimate that 800,000 people will face severe food
insecurity as a result of these below-average harvests.  The most affected
populations will be found in the South.  The FSAU/FEWS assessments
indicate that coping mechanisms will be able to provide adequate food
until the expected Deyr harvest in January, however affected populations
will be very vulnerable to destitution if the Deyr harvests are poor.

The coping mechanisms required to compensate for the poor harvests will
themselves place stresses on local communities.  The August 2001 FSAU
Nutrition Update reports that movement to towns has already exceeded local
health capacity in Rabdure, Bakool Region, and that local officials
anticipate conflict over pasture and water resources for livestock.


- Livestock.

Food security for pastoral communities continues to be depressed by
restricted livestock trade with the Gulf States.  The livestock ban,
initially imposed in September 2000 to avoid livestock infected with Rift
Valley Fever, was lifted by the United Arab Emirates in April 2001.
However the ban remains in effect for other Gulf States, including Saudi
Arabia, which is the major consumer of Somalia's livestock exports.  The
excess livestock in Somalia has decreased terms of trade for pastoralists.
Lower cereals supply after the 2001 Gu harvest will further lower
pastoralist purchasing power.  The livestock ban has also increased
unemployment in port towns such as Berbere and Bossaso.  The numbers of
unemployed in northern Somalia have swelled with the repatriation of
approximately 20,000 refugees from the Somali region of Ethiopia; UNHCR
expects to repatriate another 40,000 to northern Somalia within the next 5
months.  Traditional coping mechanisms, including remittances, have so far
mitigated the effects of the livestock ban, however trade remains
depressed.


- Health/Nutrition

Decreased food security has translated into increased malnutrition in
certain areas of Somalia, including the Northeast and areas in the South.
Acute malnutrition at a Maternal and Child Health (MCH) center in
Dangorayo district, northeast Somalia, increased from 12% to 21% between
January and June, according to the Somali Red Crescent Society.  Three
other MCH centers in the area also reported increases in levels of
malnourishment of 10 percentage points or more.  The nutrition situation
in Gedo has deteriorated this year, due to low grain stocks, high reliance
on sorghum, unemployment and insecurity.  Action Contre le Faim (ACF)
reported that admissions at its supplementary feeding center in Luuq town
increased from 200 to 1000 between April and August, and that its
therapeutic feeding center in El Bon saw admissions increase over 250%
between March and July.


- Water/Sanitation.

Somalia continued to experience below-normal rainfall, although certain
areas fared better than others.  In the South, low rainfall in Bay and
Bakool regions decimated sorghum crops, as noted above.  Human water
resources are inadequate in certain regions, particularly Bakool, where
poor maintenance and local conflict have left many water points
inoperative.  While some northern areas received adequate rainfall, such
as Sanag and Bari, other areas witnessed another successive season of
below-normal precipitation.  FSAU field visits to the Haud area, which
includes parts of Toghdeer and Sool regions in north-central Somalia,
reported that some communities were implementing water scarcity coping
mechanisms, such as water trucking, much sooner than normal.  FSAU
anticipates that the poor Gu rains will result in livestock losses before
the Deyr rains in November.


- Security/Logistics

Deteriorating security in June and July of 2001 interfered with ongoing
humanitarian activities.  Ongoing tension in southern Somalia between the
Transitional National Government (TNG)  and opposition militia escalated
in June.  Fighting broke out in Mogadishu, Kismayu, Baidoa and surrounding
areas.  Additional clashes caused population movements in Bulo Hawa, Gedo
Region.  The conflict has directly threatened humanitarian activities in
the region, and as a consequence much international relief work has been
hampered or scaled back.  The conflict in the South has also interfered
with transport of goods in the region.

Northern areas have also experienced recent political violence, signaling
a possible reversal of the progress made toward stabilization in the area.
Conflict between political groups in the self-declared autonomous region
of Puntland, in the Northeast, has prompted most international
humanitarian staff to depart, and security concerns prompted the United
Nations Common Air Services (UNCAS) to suspended flights to the area.

Many aid organizations withdrew international staff from Somalia in
September 2001 due to a combination of security concerns and logistical
constraints.  Beginning in early October, essential UN staff were
returning to stations in Somalia, however many NGOs continued to assess
appropriate security measures for local and expatriate staff.


USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

The United States Government provided $21.5 million of assistance for
Somalia during Fiscal Year 2001 (October 2000 through September 2001).
USAID/OFDA had $5.6 million of programs funded in FY2001.  The USAID
Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) provided $9.6 million of food
assistance to date, and the State Department Bureau for Population,
Refugees, Migration (State/PRM) has provided $4.7 million for Somalia, in
addition to $105.1 million for regional programs. USAID/OFDA Assistance
Adventist Development Relief Agency – rehabilitation of water sources,
public health and sanitation awareness campaigns and support to community
water associations in Bakool region. $649,502

Norwegian People's Aid (NPA) - rehabilitation of water sources, water
management and community sanitation training in Sool region $400,000

UNICEF - rehabilitation of water resources, provision of sanitation
facilities and health training in Bakool and Sanag regions $701,016

International Medical Corps - emergency primary health care for over 1
million beneficiaries in Bay, Bakool and Hiraan Regions $501,281

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Security Assessment Unit
(FSAU) - sentinel site surveillance system, nutrition surveys, food
security assessments, data analysis and dissemination of nutrition-related
information $400,000

UNICEF - health and nutrition program across most of Somalia, supports
primary, maternal and child health programs, immunizations, supplementary
and therapeutic feeding, and disease prevention $1,500,000

CARE - seeds multiplication and distribution project in southern Somalia
$77,775

UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) - improve
understanding of internal displacement, design effective aid strategies
and programs and enhance emergency early warning through analysis of
cross-border issues $70,000

UNICEF UN Common Air Services (UNCAS) - subsidy for transport of staff and
supplies for partner NGOs $1,300,000


Total USAID/OFDA FY 2001   $5,598,557



USAID/FFP

CARE - 14,470 MT of P.L. 480 Title II commodities valued at $9,600,000

Total USAID/FFP FY 2001 	$9,600,000


State/PRM

UNHCR - assistance to refugee returnees from Ethiopia $610,000

International Rescue Committee - health, agriculture and micro-enterprise
activities $960,022

Save the Children - education and child's rights advocacy activities
$745,141

CARE - agriculture, micro-enterprise and health programs for returnees
$1,496,607

UNICEF - sexual and gender-based violence programs for refugees $99,000

UNDP - returnee reintegration programs $750,000

Ambassador's fund - medical equipment for health diagnosis in returnee
populations $4,000

UNHCR - assistance to refugees and conflict victims in Africa, not
earmarked by country (this amount is not included in total contribution
figures) $60,000,000

International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) - assistance to refugees
and conflict victims in Africa, not earmarked by country (this amount is
not included in total contribution figures) $45,100,000

Total State/PRM FY 2001   $4,665,677


TOTAL USG Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia in FY 2001   $21,464,746



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