U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)
AFGHANISTAN - Complex Emergency
Situation Report #01, Fiscal Year (FY) 2003    October 31, 2002


Note: This Situation Report updates previous Central Asia Situation
Reports released in FY 2001 and FY 2002.  New information is italicized.

BACKGROUND

Two decades of war in Afghanistan, including a decade-long Soviet
occupation and ensuing civil strife, left Afghanistan impoverished and
mired in an extended humanitarian crisis.  A devastating four-year
regional drought compounded the crisis, drying up wells, parching
agricultural land, killing off livestock, collapsing rural economies, and
eventually exhausting the coping mechanisms of many ordinary Afghans,
forcing them to leave their homes in search of food and water.
International relief agencies, with support from the United States (U.S.),
have long been active in providing humanitarian assistance to the Afghan
people, even during the restrictive years of the Taliban.  The U.S. Agency
for International Development's Disaster Assistance Response Team
(USAID/DART) began its emergency coordination work in response to the
regional drought in June 2001, and a USAID/OFDA Program Office in Kabul
continues to assess the humanitarian needs of vulnerable Afghans, and to
monitor the relief programs of its implementing partners.


Afghanistan:  Numbers at a Glance
Total population (CIA Factbook)  26,813,057
  Old Caseload Refugees as of August 2001 (UNHCR)
  Pakistan and Iran  3,500,000

Refugee Returns Since January 1, 2002 (UNHCR)
  Pakistan (vol. assisted since March 1)   1,516,973
  Iran (voluntary assisted since April 9)    229,753
  Central Asian states    10,000
Internally Displaced (UNDP/OCHA)
Estimate as of August 1, 2002 (UNHCR)
    north and northeast  384,500
    south and west       474,000

Internally Displaced Returns Since Jan. 1, 2002 (IOM)
  Total as of August 31, 2002 (vol. assisted)   230,000
  Total since December 2001 (spontaneous)       400,000


FY 2001 - 2003 U.S. Government Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan*
$714,644,624




CURRENT SITUATION

Overview.  New banknotes were issued.  Several outbreaks of factional
fighting in the north ended with a cease-fire.  Warlord Padshah Kahn
launched an attack to reassert control in Khost.  The number of vulnerable
Afghans at risk from harsh winter conditions may be two million, while the
number facing a food deficit is estimated to be six million.  Frost and
low temperatures have arrived in some areas.  The pace of refugee returns
has slowed, while the number of families returning to Pakistan has
increased slightly.  An outbreak of whooping cough is suspected in 61
deaths in Badakhshan Province.

Political/Military.  On October 7, the Islamic Transitional Government of
Afghanistan (ITGA)  issued new banknotes to replace the old currency.
The new notes have been re-denominated, with one thousand old afghanis
exchangeable for one new afghani.  Afghans will have two months to
exchange all of their old notes.

Security.  Several episodes of factional fighting were reported in the
north between forces loyal to Abdul Rashid Dostum's Junbish party and
Ustad Mohammed Atta's Jamiat party.  On October 3, clashes in Samangan
Province left five people injured and caused the temporary displacement of
up to 180 families.  On October 8, fighting in Balkh Province killed five
combatants and injured two civilians.  In both cases, the Security
Commission, which includes officials from both sides and a representative
of the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), intervened to
negotiate a cease-fire.  The Security Commission had similarly ended
fighting on October 1 in Samangan Province, and tensions between the two
sides remain high in Sar-e-Pul Province.  On October 3, fighting between
Wahadat party factions, killing at least two, was reported in Balkh
Province.

In the southeastern province of Khost, gunmen opened fire on a convoy of
vehicles carrying Governor Hakim Taniwal, killing two bodyguards and
injuring four others.  The incident occurred on October 7, the same day
rebel warlord Padshah Khan launched an attack against the forces of the
governor in an effort to assert control in the province.  Last month
Padshah Kahn was forced out of Khost city, and his bases were overrun.
According to press reports, fighting broke out on October 3 in the western
province of Farah involving forces loyal to Governor of Herat Ismail Kahn
and rival warlord Amanullah Kahn.  The fighting left six dead and more
than 20 injured.  In the east, a brief clash between rival commanders in
Jalalabad reportedly killed one man and injured two.  In the central
Bamiyan Province, factional tensions remain high in the district of
Kahmard.  A conflict in Darwaz, Badakhshan Province is reportedly ongoing.
Criminal activity is on the rise in Kandahar, Zabul, and Uruzgan
provinces.  In Sar-e-Pul, Kandahar, and Wardak provinces, UNAMA reported
that several girls' schools were intentionally burned down.  In Kabul, the
U.N. Humanitarian Air Service temporarily suspended flights from the city
airport on October 13 following a security threat.  Flights returned to
normal on October 16.  U.N. missions to Kunar and Nuristan provinces
remain suspended due to ongoing military activity.

Winter Preparation.  The ITGA, in cooperation with UNAMA, the U.N. Joint
Logistics Center (UNJLC)  and other U.N. agencies, NGOs, and provincial
authorities, are working to implement a common humanitarian assistance
strategy for the coming winter.  The strategy will address:  urban winter
issues affecting recently returned refugees; rural winter issues,
including improving access and pre- positioning of food and non-food
supplies in areas that will become cut-off by heavy snows; the potential
for refugees or internally displaced persons (IDPs)  who returned to their
areas of origin but found insufficient assistance to re-displace; the
needs of those still displaced by drought or violence; and the special
needs of Kuchi nomads.

UNJLC reported that the onset of frost and low temperatures in some areas
of the western highlands is already complicating planned road
rehabilitation work intended to improve winter access.

UNAMA estimates the total winter "at risk"  population to be roughly two
million people, with a worst case planning figure of 2.4 million people.
This figure includes the returnees and IDPs identified by UNHCR as lacking
means or having settled, displaced, or re-displaced in areas of continued
high vulnerability, as well as those stationary Afghans living in areas
which will be inaccessible due to snow, and those destitute Afghans
needing assistance in urban areas.  UNHCR estimates that 290,700 refugee
returnees and 265,720 IDPs may experience some hardship during the coming
winter, while more than 100,000 of the most vulnerable urban Afghans will
need shelter repair and heating assistance.

According to its initial survey of needs and a review of available stocks,
UNAMA has identified a shortfall of: 24,254 MT of wheat, 2,820 winter
tents, 10,781 pieces of plastic sheeting, 104,506 blankets, 48,396 stoves,
and 17,774MT of coal.

Food Aid and Agriculture.  The U.N. World Food Program (WFP) is facing
breaks in its cereal pipeline.  WFP anticipates that cereals could be
unavailable after December without further donations.  Food stocks between
now and the end of the year are critical for winter preparation.

Preliminary results of the WFP 2002-2003 Vulnerability and Analysis
Mapping (VAM)  assessment have been released, and are consistent with
those of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/WFP Crop and
Food Supply Assessment completed this summer.  According to the data,
increased precipitation in the north and west has resulted in higher
production and an improvement in overall food security in those areas.
However, in the Central Highlands and in the provinces of Ghor, Sar-e-Pul,
Faryab and Farah, the population continues to experience high levels of
food insecurity.  Moreover, in the southern and eastern provinces, as well
as in Uruzgan, Bamiyan and Wardak provinces, the severe negative impact of
drought on food security and livelihoods continues unabated.  The
assessment has also identified pockets of acute food insecurity in
otherwise better off areas, most notably in the northeastern provinces of
Badakhshan, Baghlan and Takhar.

According to WFP, four million Afghans in rural communities are estimated
to face a food deficit during the next 12 months.  This figure does not
include vulnerable Afghans living in urban areas, returnees, or IDPs.
Data from this year's Crop and Food Supply Assessment indicate that more
than six million of the most vulnerable Afghans countrywide will continue
to require targeted food assistance.  In addition to the effects of
drought, other persistent factors such as rural indebtedness, loss of
productive assets, and lack of purchasing power contribute to high food
insecurity.

UNAMA reports that in parts of the north, there is concern over the
availability and/or accessibility of water.  The impacts of drought are
still felt in some southern mountainous districts, limiting availability,
while in other districts maneuvering factions have restricted
accessibility.

IDPs and Refugees.  More than 1.75 million Afghan refugees have been
assisted in returning home through the joint U.N. High Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR) and ITGA voluntary repatriation program that began on
March 1.  More than 1.5 million Afghans have voluntarily returned from
Pakistan, while nearly 230,000 Afghans have returned home from Iran.
Returns in the last month are sharply down (106,976 Afghans returned in
September, down from a peak of 412,742 in May) due to the coming winter, a
reduction in return assistance, and insecurity in some parts of the
country.  UNHCR anticipates a continued decline in returns until spring,
when the pace should again increase.

Returns from Iran at the southern Milak-Zaranj border crossing, suspended
since September 1 due to poor security, have now resumed.  Iran is now
returning more refugees per week than Pakistan (6,000 returned the second
week in October from Iran, versus 4,000 from Pakistan).

UNHCR has reported an increase in the number of Afghan families crossing
back into Pakistan.  In late August, UNHCR's monitoring teams recorded 100
families entering Pakistan at the Turkham border point, while during the
first week of October, the number of families making the crossing was 215.
Although this seasonal migration is not a new phenomenon, and many of the
families indicate that they intend to return to Afghanistan in the spring,
it is a reflection of the difficult reality facing some Afghans in
drought-affected or war-torn communities lacking adequate reintegration
assistance.

Since January, UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration
(IOM) have helped more than 230,000 IDPs return to their homes.  IOM
estimates that despite the success of its return program, there will still
remain at least 300,000 IDPs in the north, central, and western regions
that cannot return home due to continued vulnerability or ethnic
persecution, with another 400,000 long-term IDPs scattered across the
south.  UNAMA will be conducting a survey in the coming month of IDP
numbers and needs in the south.

UNAMA reports that new displacements to Kabul for economic reasons
continue from the drought-affected districts of Panjab, Waras, and Saighan
in Bamiyan Province.  UNAMA also reports migration in the south due to
high levels of poverty in some drought- affected districts.

Health.  The World Health Organization (WHO)  confirmed that at least 61
children have died over a four-week period from a suspected outbreak of
whooping cough in Darwaz district, Badakhshan province.  WHO doctors were
airlifted to the remote location by Coalition forces.

As a part of its winterization strategy, the U.N.  Children's Fund
(UNICEF) is pre-positioning Vitamin C in the mountainous province of Ghor.
Last winter, UNICEF had to administer several hundred thousand doses of
Vitamin C following an outbreak of scurvy in several remote villages in
Ghor.  Scurvy is brought on by hunger and a lack of Vitamin C.

UNICEF and WHO are conducting assessments of the high levels of iodine
deficiency in the diet of the population.  The high prevalence of goiters,
still births, and infant mortality are in part the result of iodine
deficiency.  Iodized salt is rare in the markets in rural areas, and is
even scarce in Kabul.


USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Background.  On October 4, 2001, Assistant Secretary of State for South
Asian Affairs Christina B. Rocca redeclared a complex humanitarian
disaster in Afghanistan for FY 2002.  To date, FY 2001 and FY 2002 USG
humanitarian assistance for Afghanistan has been provided by USAID/OFDA,
Food for Peace (USAID/FFP), Democracy & Governance (USAID/DG), Office of
Transition Initiatives (USAID/OTI), United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA), Department of State's Bureau of Population, Refugees,
and Migration (State/PRM), Department of State's Humanitarian Demining
Program (State/HDP), the Department of State's Bureau of International
Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (State/INL), the Department of
Defense (DOD), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).


USAID/OFDA ASSISTANCE

Personnel.  On June 7, 2002 the USAID/OFDA Disaster Assistance Response
Team (DART) based in Kabul was deactivated to become a USAID/OFDA Program
Office.  The USAID/DART had been in the region since June 2001.
USAID/OFDA staff in Kabul will continue to coordinate with the
humanitarian relief community, assess the humanitarian situation, and
monitor USAID/OFDA programs.



USAID/OFDA HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO AFGHANISTAN

USG AGENCY
IMPLEMENTING PARTNER
ACTIVITY
REGION
AMOUNT


AFGHANISTAN - COMPLEX EMERGENCY FY 2002

USAID/OFDA

Action Contre la Faim (ACF)
Health and Nutrition
Central
$1,705,030

ACTED
Emergency relief, Salang
Northeast
$9,383,454

Airserv
Air Transport Services
Countrywide
$1,574,756

CARE
Food, livelihoods, water, and health
Central, South
$4,892,244

Concern Worldwide
Shelter, seeds and tools, agriculture, income generation activities
Northeast
$2,940,661

Catholic Relief Services (CRS)
Non-food items
Central Highlands
$988,087

Church World Service(CWS)
Transport of non-food items
$49,902

Focus/Aga Khan Foundation
Seeds, water, food
Bamiyan, Baghlan, Balkh
$1,436,134

GOAL
Emergency relief, locust eradication, winterization, agriculture
Samangan and Jowzjan
$8,600,000

International Center for Agricultural Reseach in Dry Areas (ICARDA)
Seed multiplication
Countrywide
$2,525,000

International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)
Food, non-food items
Countrywide
$2,500,000

International Medical Corps (IMC)
Health care, supplemental feeding, water, agriculture
West, Central
$7,996,405

International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Food, non-food items, charcoal, IDP transport, care, and support
West, North
$4,632,073

International Rescue Committee (IRC)
Health, food, water, roads
North, Balkh, Ghor
$8,242,779

International Resource Groups (IRG)
Food Augmentation Team
$614,820

Mercy Corps
Food, non-food items, water, sanitation, agriculture, livestock
South, Northeast
$6,751,653

Save the Children (SC/US)
Nutrition, food, health, spot reconstruction
South, West, North
$5,651,312

Shelter for Life (SFL)
Shelter and roads
West, Northeast
$4,649,008

Solidarites
Emergency rehabilitation
North, Central
$1,739,115

Tufts University
Assessment Mission
South, West
$201,868

UNCHS/Habitat
Cash for work, solid waste removal
Urban
$382,850

UN Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO)
Agriculture, seeds, locust and sunn pest eradication
Countrywide
$4,200,000

UNICEF
Nutrition, health, water, sanitation
Countrywide
$4,150,000

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA)
Coordination
Countrywide
$2,685,150

World Food Program (WFP)
Logistics, air services, local purchase food  (15,000 MT)
Countrywide
$18,200,000

Field Support
Operational support for USAID/OFDA team
$1,900,953

Airlifts and OFDA relief commodities
Procurement and/or transport of relief supplies
$4,026,634

Central Asia Task Force Allowance
Transfer to USAID/Central Asia Task Force to support airlift of textbooks
$742,000

Total FY 2002 USAID/OFDA   $113,361,888




USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO AFGHANISTAN

AFGHANISTAN - COMPLEX EMERGENCY FY 2001-2002
FY 2001
FY 2002

USAID/OFDA
$12,485,791
$113,361,888

USAID/FFP
$31,200,000
$159,472,700

USAID/OTI
-----
$24,348,951

USAID/DG
$310,000
-----

STATE/HDP
$2,800,000
$7,000,000

STATE/PRM
$31,088,659
$136,544,175

STATE/INL
$1,500,000
-----

USDA
$104,300,000
$38,651,516

DOD
-----
$50,897,769

CDC
$569,525
-----

Total USG Assistance by Fiscal Year
$184,253,975
$530,276,999


FY 2001/ 2002 / 2003 SUMMARY

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan for FY 2001*
$184,367,625

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan for FY 2002
$530,276,999

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan for FY 2003
$0

Total USG Humanitarian Assistance to Afghanistan for FY 2002/2001/2003
$714,644,624


*Note: A detailed breakdowns of FY01 assistance is available in previous
Central Asia Situation Reports.


distributed by
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Center for International Disaster Information
Volunteers in Technical Assistance
                                          web: www.cidi.org
                                     listserv: www.cidi.org/listsub.htm
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Central Asia                  www.cidi.org/humanitarian/hsr/centralasia