US Agency for International Development
Ethiopia: Complex Health/Food Insecurity Emergency
Situation Report #1 (FY 2005)
3 November 2004


BACKGROUND

In 2002, failed belg, or secondary rains from March through May, combined 
with delayed and sporadic meher, or main rains from July through 
September, led to severe drought conditions and widespread food insecurity 
in Ethiopia throughout 2003. A concerted international humanitarian 
response provided emergency health, nutrition, water and sanitation, 
agriculture, and food assistance for an estimated 13.2 million people and 
averted widespread famine-related mortality. Although rains have improved 
from 2002/2003 levels, USAID's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS 
NET) reports that a trend of insufficient rainfall during the past seven 
years has adversely affected crop production. Many households are able to 
cope with a single poor rainy season, but the cumulative effect of 
consecutive seasons of failed rains has led some households to experience 
chronic food insecurity while exhausting traditional coping mechanisms. 
The humanitarian situation for affected Ethiopians is further exacerbated 
by a livelihoods crisis due to a decline in world coffee prices, 
decreasing labor wages, insufficient livestock production, environmental 
degradation, and market instability.

According to a co-funded USAID/OFDA and USAID/Ethiopia report by the 
Feinstein International Famine Center at Tufts University, even if the 
rains return to normal levels in 2004, affected populations still face 
significant debt, poor health, decreased seed stocks, and fewer livestock. 
In December 2003, the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of 
Ethiopia's (GFDRE) Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) 
issued a joint U.N./GFDRE emergency appeal, estimating that 7.2 million 
people will require food assistance in 2004. Although this was a 45 
percent reduction from 2003, Ethiopia faced ongoing challenges to recovery 
from the 2002/2003 emergency. In August 2004, the number of people in need 
of assistance was revised to 7.8 million to reflect deteriorating food 
security as a result of poor belg rains. In October 2004, FEWS NET 
indicated that between 3.8 and 7.5 million people will require emergency 
assistance in 2005, in addition to the 5.1 million people who will be 
covered by the Productive Safety Nets Program starting in January 2005, 
for a total of 8.9 to 12.6 million people.


NUMBERS AT A GLANCE SOURCE Total Affected Population in 2004 7.8 million 
DPPC, August 11, 2004 Total Food Aid Requirements in 2004 964,690 metric 
tons (MT)  DPPC, August 11, 2004

Total FY 2004 USAID/OFDA Assistance to Ethiopia: $21,168,488 Total FY 2004 
USG Humanitarian Assistance to Ethiopia: $275,127,396



CURRENT SITUATION

Food security outlook. Between June 28 and July 18, the DPPC led a 
multi-agency pre-harvest assessment of all belg- producing zones in 
Ethiopia, as well as some gu rain-receiving areas in pastoralist regions, 
and meher-producing areas in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples 
(SNNP) Region. The assessment teams reported that several weather events, 
including a significant delay in the onset of the belg rains and a long 
dry spell between April and May, had negatively affected crop production 
and pasture and water availability. As a result, large populations in 
Somali and SNNP regions, as well as parts of Oromiya and Amhara regions 
faced deteriorating food security. Based on findings of the multi-agency 
assessment, the DPPC estimated that an additional 4 million people will 
require emergency food assistance from August to December 2004.

As the end of the meher season approaches, agricultural production 
prospects throughout the country remain mixed. According to FEWS NET's 
August 31 report, harvests in western, central, southwestern, and 
northwestern regions are expected to reach levels close to Ethiopia's 
six-year average. Production in the eastern half of the country is likely 
to be below average due to poor rainfall distribution. A USAID/OFDA and 
USAID/Ethiopia team assessment of East and West Hararghe from August 25 to 
September 1, anticipated crop failure for the meher season of 60 to 100 
percent due to late and erratic rainfall. FEWS NET also reported that 
pastoralists in the south and east remain highly vulnerable due to drought 
conditions during the past three to five years and the poor performance of 
the April to May gu rains. In October, FEWS NET reported that the food 
security situation in 2005 could deteriorate further if the meher and 
October to December deyr rains in pastoral areas fail or are insufficient.

Increasing humanitarian concerns in Somali Region. Failure of the critical 
main gu rains increased pressure on scarce water and pasture resources 
throughout Somali Region. In July, USAID/OFDA funded the U.N. Office for 
the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) to establish a field 
office in Jijiga to monitor conditions and facilitate coordination of 
humanitarian activities through partnership with the regional DPPC, other 
U.N. agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). In September, as 
humanitarian conditions continued to deteriorate, a six-member USAID team 
visited Somali Region to assess the impact of failed gu rains across 
almost all zones of the region. Although insecurity and limited road 
access prevented the USAID team from traveling to many drought-affected 
areas, field assessments indicated declining food security, water 
availability, and health status, as well as pasture shortages throughout 
the region. On October 11, a U.N. Joint Agency Rapid Assessment of Somali 
Region reported that conditions in some areas were reaching emergency 
levels as milk was not available or had become too expensive in many 
zones, incidences of diarrheal diseases and malnutrition were on the rise, 
water had become extremely scarce, and pasture was completely depleted. 
According to the U.N. Rapid Assessment, failure of the current deyr rains 
would likely lead to widespread livestock deaths and livelihood losses, 
and a humanitarian crisis in the region.

On October 20, the DPPC issued a flash report stating that three weeks 
into the season, early indicators suggested that the deyr rains were not 
performing well. Although the rains started normally in a few pocket 
areas, most districts received insignificant showers, which were localized 
and poorly distributed. The DPPC reported that the performance of the deyr 
rains through early November will be crucial to determining the food 
security and livelihood situation in Somali Region.

USAID/OFDA assessments of livestock and agriculture in Oromiya Region. A 
USAID/OFDA team visited several districts in East and West Hararghe, 
Oromiya Region from September 27 to October 1 to review the current 
condition of crops and livestock, with particular attention to lowland 
areas, which were hard hit by drought in previous years. The team reported 
that the agricultural situation varied from site to site, but erratic and 
below average rainfall had resulted in overall low sorghum production 
across the area. In many fields visited by the USAID/OFDA team, sorghum 
plants required continued good rains to mature. In other fields, 
particularly in lowland areas, sorghum was planted so late that the plants 
were only in the vegetative growth stage and needed another good month of 
rain to complete seed fill. Local DPPC officials estimated sorghum losses 
between 50 and 100 percent. The USAID/OFDA team was concerned by the 
reported widespread failure of green maize, which is commonly used by 
families to bridge the hunger gap until cereal crops are harvested. 
Without green maize, pockets of malnutrition were likely to increase among 
children and other vulnerable populations. While the late onset and poor 
distribution of rains were the primary reasons for poor harvests, farmers 
in many districts also cited problems caused by Striga, a parasitic weed 
that affects both sorghum and maize.

USAID/OFDA field assessments indicated that the livestock situation across 
East and West Hararghe was also varied, but was generally showing 
improvement. Livestock throughout the region appeared fairly healthy and 
well fed, with failed maize plants and stalks from sorghum crops expected 
to provide fodder over the next several months. A longer term concern for 
livestock owners and small farmers was the widespread distribution of 
Parthenium hysterophorus, an exotic weed that has rapidly multiplied and 
infested large grazing areas throughout Oromiya Region and Dire Dawa 
Administration. The USAID/OFDA assessment team noted large areas 
throughout East and West Hararghe completely covered by Parthenium, which 
spreads quickly through agricultural lands left fallow and could 
potentially depress yields if allowed to become established. According to 
the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Organization (EARO), Parthenium was 
responsible for up to a 90 percent reduction in forage production and 
posed a clear threat to rangelands.

Increasing levels of malnutrition. The DPPC's October 18 Early Warning 
System (EWS) report stated that signs of malnutrition were evident in many 
parts of the country. Of particular concern were resettlement areas in 
East Wollega Zone, Oromiya Region, due to the lack of supplementary food 
for children under five, as well as Sidama Zone, Konso Special Woreda, and 
Gamogofa Zone, SNNP Region. In response, nutritional surveys and rapid 
nutrition and health assessments are being conducted countrywide with 
particular attention in several zones of SNNP, Somali, Oromiya, and Amhara 
regions.

Status of food aid pipeline. According to the U.N. World Food Program 
(WFP), 86 percent of the 2004 revised cereal food aid requirements and 39 
percent of pulses and iodized salt have been pledged to date, covering the 
cereal food aid pipeline through the end of October. WFP reports a partial 
pipeline break may occur in December unless 23,000 MT of cereals are 
provided.

U.N. Special Envoy launches report of 2002/2003 response. On October 16, 
Martti Ahtisaari, the U.N. Special Envoy for the Humanitarian Crisis in 
the Horn of Africa, returned to Ethiopia for a three-day visit following a 
stop in Eritrea. This visit marked Mr. Ahtisaari's fourth trip to Addis 
Ababa since his appointment by the U.N. Secretary General in June 2003. On 
October 17, Mr. Ahtisaari launched the "Evaluation of the Response to the 
2002/2003 Emergency in Ethiopia," a joint analysis of the crisis by the 
GFDRE and humanitarian partners. The report noted that a large-scale 
international response had averted widespread famine-related mortality in 
Ethiopia. Action on issues such as population growth, environmental 
degradation, and land policies, however, were urgently needed to address 
the underlying causes of increased vulnerability and food insecurity in 
Ethiopia.


USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

On October 2, 2003, U.S. Ambassador Aurelia E. Brazeal declared a disaster 
in response to the continuing health and food insecurity emergency in 
Ethiopia.

In FY 2004, USAID/OFDA committed more than $21.1 million to support 
humanitarian activities in Ethiopia. Funding priorities included health 
and nutrition, agriculture, water and sanitation, livelihoods, and local 
NGO capacity-building activities.

In FY 2004, USAID/OFDA provided more than $110,000 to Medical Emergency 
Relief International (Merlin) to increase access to potable water and 
improve community sanitation and hygiene practices. In addition, 
USAID/OFDA provided nearly $3 million through the International Rescue 
Committee (IRC) to support water and sanitation programs in 
drought-affected areas of Oromiya Region.

In response to agricultural and livelihoods recovery needs, USAID/OFDA 
provided more than $860,000 to CARE for seed fair and voucher programs in 
Oromiya Region. Through CARE, households will each receive 27 kg of seeds 
and agricultural extension support to complement seed fair initiatives.

USAID/OFDA also funded Catholic Relief Services (CRS) more than $4.8 
million to support supplemental irrigation systems and community-based 
water associations, as well as agricultural and livestock recovery 
initiatives and cash grant programs. In Tigray, USAID/OFDA provided more 
than $1.7 million to Relief Society of Tigray (REST) for agriculture and 
livelihoods programs, including livestock distribution to female-headed 
households, improved irrigation through household ponds and hand dug 
wells, cash for seeds, and vegetable seed distribution. Also, USAID/OFDA 
provided more than $1.7 million to World Vision for seed fairs to 
distribute maize and vegetable seeds, agricultural tools, and lablab or 
pigeon pea to increase cover crops and soil conservation in SNNP and 
Oromiya regions, as well as more than $280,000 to German Agro Action (GAA) 
to supply seed in Arsi Zone, Oromiya Region for the meher planting season. 
Further, USAID/OFDA committed nearly $350,000 to Cooperative Housing 
Foundation International (CHF), and more than $700,000 to Food for the 
Hungry International (FHI) to improve food security in SNNP and Amhara 
regions, respectively. USAID/OFDA supported animal health and 
supplementary fodder interventions in Oromiya Region through a $600,000 
grant to Mercy Corps.

In response to ongoing health and nutrition concerns, USAID/OFDA provided 
more than $1.4 million to support Save the Children/US (SCF/US) 
multi-sector rapid assessment and response activities throughout Ethiopia.

USAID/OFDA also provided more than $1.4 million to International Medical 
Corps (IMC) to consolidate and strengthen emergency nutrition programs and 
support local nutrition surveillance and more than $610,000 to GOAL to 
implement malaria control and emergency nutrition preparedness measures, 
all in SNNP and Oromiya regions. To support the countrywide measles 
immunization program, USAID/OFDA approved $800,000 to UNICEF for FY 2004.

USAID/OFDA also supported OCHA with $200,000 to strengthen humanitarian 
coordination and to facilitate improved situation analysis, reporting, and 
communication of humanitarian response activities in Somali Region. 
Additionally, in order to address growing concerns regarding the GFDRE's 
resettlement program, USAID/OFDA provided $25,000 to design a resettlement 
monitoring and evaluation framework for use by multi-agency assessment 
teams. USAID/OFDA also provided nearly $225,000 for emergency relief 
commodities for resettlement areas. In addition, USAID/OFDA provided 
nearly $100,000 to Checchi and Company to research the effectiveness of 
USAID/OFDA-funded seed fairs and voucher programs and cash-for-relief 
initiatives in Ethiopia during the 2003 emergency.

The USG is the largest donor of food assistance to Ethiopia. In FY 2004, 
USAID's Office of Food for Peace (FFP) pledged 490,820 MT of P.L. 480 
Title II emergency food assistance valued at approximately $250 million 
through CRS, SCF/UK, and WFP. Since the emergency began in August 2002, 
USAID/FFP's response to Ethiopia has reached more than 1.5 million MT of 
emergency food assistance valued at more than $750 million. The 
commodities provided by USAID/FFP include a combination of cereals, 
pulses, and vegetable oil, and CSB for therapeutic and supplementary 
feeding. USAID/FFP emergency food assistance is provided to vulnerable 
populations through direct distribution, food for work programs, emergency 
school feeding, maternal and child health programs, and therapeutic and 
supplementary feeding programs.

In FY 2004, the U.S. Department of State's Bureau for Population, 
Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM) contributed more than $5.3 million to 
support refugee assistance, protection, feeding, and literacy programs in 
Ethiopia. Funding to IRC improved water supply and quality, as well as 
provided sanitation facilities. State/PRM also funded education programs 
on HIV/AIDS and integrated services for Eritrean and Sudanese refugees in 
Sherkole, Yarenja, and Tigray. In addition, State/PRM funded refugee 
education and self-sufficiency programs, including the provision of small 
business grants and skills training. State/PRM also provided $20,000 to 
the Ambassador's Fund to build two new preschools in the Shimelba refugee 
camp and to purchase and install solar panels to promote informal, evening 
classes for refugees in Shimelba, Sherkole, and Yarenja in 
Benishangul-Gumuz and Tigray regions.

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