OCHA Situation Report
Horn of Africa: Conflict and Drought
27 October 2005


Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

SUMMARY

The Horn of Africa continues to be plagued by the enduring consequences 
of conflict and prolonged drought. To be sure, progress has been 
witnessed on both fronts during the reporting period, with the signature 
of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) for Sudan in January and the 
relocation of the Transitional Government of Somalia in July on the one 
hand, and signs of improvement in the performance of the rains in 
Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia on the other. However, it is too early yet 
to forecast the impact of the improved performance of the rains on food 
security, and peace agreements are only beginning to be implemented.

The Regional Overview summarizes the key political and security 
developments in the region, providing the background against which the 
welfare of affected and vulnerable populations is assessed.  Key 
highlights include the peace processes in Sudan and Somalia, where 
implementation remains the challenge, following the signature of the CPA 
and the completion of the relocation of the TFG in July respectively. 
The stalemate in the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace continues, with the danger 
of resumption of fighting remaining real. Both the self-declared 
'Republic of Somaliland' and Kenya are going to the polls in 
circumstances that are likely to result in population displacement 
within and across countries.

Food insecurity remains of concern in all countries of the Horn of 
Africa. Upwards of 12 million people in the region are in need of food 
assistance in 2005. The tentative indications of better performance of 
rains in 2005 in Ethiopia and Eritrea will have to await harvest as 
several intervening considerations-manpower shortages, cessation of 
rains, threat of locusts and floods- could yet frustrate meaningful 
recovery from the severe food shortages in the region.

The initial signs of improvement in the weather and political 
environment have not significantly altered the underlying causes of 
displacement in the region, as is exhibited in the increase in the 
number of affected populations, from 7,307,769 in December 2004 to 
8,101,992 by mid August 2005. The fluid nature of developments in the 
region implies humanitarian needs will continue in the short term, 
alongside transition plans from relief to development. Changes in the 
numbers of affected populations, which reflect internally displaced and 
refugees, represent only part of the picture. The inclusion of other 
vulnerable groups-HIV/AIDS infected, food insecure, returnees and urban 
vulnerables - reveals a bleaker picture.

The Country Briefs in this report - for Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, 
Somalia and Sudan - concentrate on humanitarian issues specific to the 
countries. Much of Somalia remains insecure and unstable, with serious 
humanitarian implications. Fighting in Darfur, and the threat of a new 
front in Eastern Sudan portend a worsening of the situation. In Kenya, 
pockets of severe food insecurity persist and new displacements have 
taken place in recent months. Severe malnutrition and widespread food 
shortages continue in Eritrea against the backdrop of a deteriorating 
economy. In Ethiopia, the government, with the assistance of 
humanitarian and development partners, has commenced the implementation 
of the Coalition for Food Security Initiative, designed to address the 
root causes of the perennial humanitarian crisis in the country. A 
section on Djibouti is annexed, mainly highlighting the severe 
livelihood conditions in the country.

Needs for the affected populations remain acute. Revised requirements in 
countries of the region as of mid-2005 total US $ 2,659,900,000, with 
Sudan alone accounting for US $ 1.96 billion.

REGIONAL OVERVIEW

The Horn of Africa continues to be plagued by the adverse consequences 
of localized conflict and continuing tensions between some states of the 
region, prolonged drought and erratic weather patterns and widespread 
food insecurity. As a result, millions of the region's 154.3 million 
inhabitants continue to be subjected to harsh living conditions. Food 
security remains precarious and sustainable political stability elusive. 
Continuing conflict, as well as incomplete and stalemated transitions 
have created an uncertain and fluid operating environment and are 
creating tensions between development and humanitarian interventions.

The information presented in this document represents best estimates of 
the number of displaced, refugees and vulnerable populations throughout 
the Greater Horn of Africa Region.  Sources of the information contained 
in this document include UN agencies, NGOs, the Red Cross family, 
central governments and local authorities.  Internally displaced people 
include those who have been forced to move out of their habitual 
residences and who are living dispersed in the rural environment, with 
host families or in other sites. The information is organised by 
country, location, category and national origin. Estimated populations 
are from the Human Development Report 2005.

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