OCHA Situation Report
Somalia
Monthly Analysis, September 2006
13 October 2006


Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

This report was written in cooperation with the UN Agencies in Somalia

HIGHLIGHTS

Owing to a series of security incidents during the month, humanitarian 
access throughout Somalia was severely restricted. On 17 September, an 
Italian nun and her bodyguard were assassinated in Mogadishu. On 18 
September, the TFG President narrowly escaped an assassination attempt 
just outside the Parliament building in Baidoa. No group claimed 
responsibility for either act yet, given the insecure environment and 
subsequent direct written threats against UN staff, a decision was taken 
to temporarily relocate all UN international staff members from southern 
and central Somalia, as well as Puntland, and to suspend all UN missions 
to Mogadishu until further notice. Security assessments are presently 
underway to determine when international staff can return to Somalia and 
international staff has already returned to Puntland.

On 9 September, a third humanitarian mission lead by the Humanitarian 
Coordinator for Somalia had traveled to Mogadishu to further discuss 
scaling up of activities, access and coordination issues. The Courts had 
once again reiterated their readiness to ensure the security of 
humanitarian personnel and provide an enabling environment for enhanced 
humanitarian action. In stark contrast to the overall security 
improvement in Mogadishu brought about by the Islamic Courts, however, 
the murder of the Italian nun (and that of a Swedish journalist on 23 
June) raises concerns for the safety of foreigners in the city. Still, 
in spite of developments, on-going humanitarian activities carried on in 
the capital through presence of national staff. By the end of September, 
337,366 children - 98% of the target - were vaccinated against polio in 
ten out of sixteen districts; the highest coverage in the last fifteen 
years.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Courts continued to expand their area of 
influence and control. On 24 September, the strategic port town of 
Kismayo was peacefully taken over by the Courts who ousted the Juba 
Valley Alliance Chairman, and TFG Minister of Defense. The take over has 
sparked an exodus of Somalis across the border to Kenya, where during 
the month UNHCR reported receiving between 200-300 Somalis daily. More 
than 6,000 arrived in September alone, of which over 60% are under the 
age of 18. With the new arrivals, the Dadaab refugee camp north-eastern 
Kenya has almost reached its maximum capacity and resources are starting 
to run low. If the present situation in Somalia were to escalate and 
widespread conflict were to occur, the impact on the already dire 
humanitarian situation would be severe, including increased 
displacement.

According to FEWS NET, during the Hagai (dry) season, food security has 
not improved in many areas, and the negative effects of the recent 
drought on productive assets continue to be felt. IGAD's Climate 
Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) forecasts an increased 
likelihood of near-normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of 
Africa during the coming Deyr season (October-December). Insufficient 
Deyr rains over pastoral areas in Somalia would likely see a rapid 
deterioration in food security. At the same time, even if the rains were 
to be satisfactory, vulnerabilities are such that the crisis in Somali 
is likely to extend well into next year. Presently, 1.8 million Somalis 
are in need of humanitarian assistance.

A Presidential Decree was issued in Puntland on 25 September banning 
human smuggling. While a welcome move by the authorities to quell such 
activities and crackdown on smugglers, partners have been concerned by 
the enforcement of the decree, and reports of arrests and detentions of 
a number of Ethiopians and Somalis from South/Central. The humanitarian 
community is offering to work with the Puntland authorities to find 
sustainable solutions to the issue of migration management and human 
smuggling, while also safeguarding the rights of potential asylum 
seekers and protection of others.

ACCESS and SECURITY

Humanitarian access throughout Somalia was considerably affected by a 
chain of events during the reporting month. On 17 September, an Italian 
nun and her bodyguard were assassinated in Mogadishu; on 18 September, 
the TFG President narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in Baidoa; 
and shortly after, the UN received direct written threats against its 
staff in Somalia. As a result, all UN international staff members were 
temporarily relocated from southern and central Somalia, as well as 
Puntland, and all UN missions to Mogadishu were suspended until further 
notice. Many international NGOs also temporarily relocated their 
international staff from South/Central. In spite of such a measure, 
on-going humanitarian activities carried on throughout the country 
through national staff present on the ground. Security risk assessments 
are presently being conducted in various areas to determine when 
international staff can return to Somalia. Following a meeting by the 
Humanitarian Coordinator with the Puntland authorities on 26 September 
and a recent security risk assessment, UN staff members have already 
returned to Puntland.

In another major development in southern Somalia, the strategic port 
town of Kismayo was peacefully taken over by the Islamic Courts on 24 
September. Colonel Barre Aden Hirale - Juba Valley Alliance Chairman and 
TFG Minister of Defense ? was ousted together with his militia and 
reportedly fled to Gedo region where he is said to be regrouping. The 
Courts reportedly denied planning to take Kismayo by force and remarked 
the move was to prevent an IGASOM force from arriving there. The Courts 
immediately imposed a curfew and quelled a demonstration thereafter to 
take effective control. Fear of fighting in Kismayo sparked an exodus of 
Somalis (not only from Lower Juba region), mostly women and children, 
into neighboring Kenya (see protection section).

The rapid expansion of the influence of the Islamic Courts, now in 
control of all southern coastal regions as well as Hiran, has posed a 
serious challenge to the status quo, the consequences of which could 
have serious access and security implications if responded to 
militarily. Given the possibility of wider conflict, which could pull in 
neighbouring countries, humanitarian partners continue to update 
contingency plans to ensure adequate preparedness and response plans for 
the delivery of humanitarian assistance along various political/security 
(as well as climatic) scenarios.

Prior to the above-mentioned security incidents, a third humanitarian 
mission - led by the Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia (HC) - 
traveled to Mogadishu on 9 September to continue discussions with the 
Islamic Courts on issues around access, coordination, humanitarian 
engagement and joint programming. The Courts had once again reiterated 
their readiness to provide security and called upon the UN to scale up 
its activities advising that all activities should be socially sound and 
respectful of Islamic values. The Courts also emphasized their 
opposition to an IGASOM deployment and readiness to defend themselves 
against such a development. Concerns raised by the HC included the 
maintenance of humanitarian space, direct access to partners and 
beneficiaries, progress on the murder of the Swedish journalist on 23 
June, and women's engagement in the establishment of a public 
administration.

While the mission left with cautious optimism, the murder of the Italian 
nun has created a major set back. The perpetrators are not yet known and 
the Courts point to an act of spoilers who do not want to see 
humanitarian workers return to Mogadishu. While there has been a general 
security improvement for residents over the last months and the Courts 
have appealed for humanitarian assistance, the modalities of increasing 
activities in Mogadishu will have to be rethought. That said, thanks to 
national staff presence in the capital, existing humanitarian activities 
continued during the month including the measles campaign. By the end of 
September, 337,366 children (98% of the target) were vaccinated against 
polio in ten out of sixteen districts; the highest coverage in the last 
fifteen years. UNICEF undertook a second phase of teachers' training 
reaching 340 teachers from the different education umbrellas in 
Mogadishu.

In the northeast, local clashes over land disputes, disturbances at 
Garowe police station by armed militias, and clan tensions and clashes 
in Garowe were reported during the month. More importantly, owing to 
developments in southern and central Somalia, and on account of security 
concerns, on 25 September the Puntland authorities issued a Presidential 
Decree banning the movement of southern Somalis into the area. During 
the month, tension persisted in the northeast over the military 
stand-off in southern Mudug region between the Islamic Courts and 
Puntland troops, with the latter maintaining defensive positions in 
Galkayo to avert any destabilising Islamic factions from entering 
Puntland. UN activities (by national staff) continued with restricted 
movement to Galkayo imposed. A mission consisting of representatives 
from UN Agencies is expected to travel to Puntland later in October to 
discuss the implications of the Decree as well as to finalise 'Agreed 
Working Arrangements'.

The situation in Baidoa has quieted since the attempted assassination on 
the President (no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack) 
but the town remains unstable with incidents of continued inter- and 
intra-clan killings, demonstrations and reports of foreign troops in the 
area. On 4 September, heavy fighting between local Rahanweyn and 
TFG-allied militia broke out at the airstrip which triggered some 
Rahanweyn leaders to call for the TFG's pull-out from Baidoa.

PROTECTION

With the end of the monsoon season and resulting calmer seas, the number 
of people attempting to cross the Gulf of Aden is once again rising. 
April through to August 2006 saw a lull in numbers but humanitarian 
partners are once again concerned by recent reports. According to UNHCR, 
during the month of September, a total of 30 ships arrived in Yemen with 
1,977 Somalis, 983 Ethiopians and one Sudanese onboard. 38 Somalis and 
16 Ethiopians died in drowning and other incidents. The majority of 
ships continue to depart from ports in Puntland, especially Bossaso, 
where an estimated 2,000 would-be migrants were stationed at the time of 
drafting.

Local authorities in Bossaso confirmed on 18 September that the Puntland 
authorities have started to clampdown on migrants passing through the 
port to the Gulf States, and announced that six smugglers were already 
arrested and four boats captured. However, the authorities once again 
made it clear that they do not have the resources to control all 
departure points such as Qaw, Elayo and Marero, some distance from 
Bossaso. On 25 September, the Puntland authorities issued a Presidential 
Decree banning human smuggling from Puntland following which a series of 
arrests were made of Ethiopians as well as Somalis from South/Central, 
betaween the age of 15 and 27, including men and women. All Ethiopian 
nationals were reportedly released after two to three days in jail, 
while 76 arrested young men were forcefully returned to Mogadishu. At 
the time of drafting, about 85 IDPs/migrants, mainly Somalis and 
including 21 women, remained detained in Bossaso together with five 
smugglers. The detainees were taken to court on 28 September 2006 and 
sentenced on account of unclear charges: the economic migrants were 
handed a three-month sentence, while the smugglers were given a one-year 
jail term. UNHCR-Somalia is looking into the legal issues of such 
actions as well as closely monitoring the detainments and visiting those 
in jail.

During September, UNHCR-Kenya reported a steady stream of between 
200-300 Somalis daily fleeing the country to north-eastern Kenya to 
escape heightened tension in south and central Somalia (see population 
movement tracking map on last page). Over 25,000 new Somali refugees 
have now crossed into Kenya since the beginning of the year. More than 
6,000 arrived in September alone, of which over 60% are under the age of 
18. Many of the families are headed by women as the men stay behind to 
take care of family businesses and property, or other family members who 
are unable to leave.

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