IRIN
SOMALIA: Fears of humanitarian crisis as war talk escalates
6 December 2006


[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United 
Nations]

NAIROBI, 6 December (IRIN) - The United Nations Office for the 
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has expressed concern over 
reports of imminent war in Somalia, as increased insecurity could worsen 
the humanitarian crisis in the war-scarred country.

"The consequences of any widespread conflict would be disastrous, 
including massive internal movement, civilian casualties, and further 
livelihood and asset erosion," Philippe Lazzarini, head of OCHA in 
Somalia told IRIN on Wednesday.

Ali Muhammad Gedi, the prime minister of Somalia's Transitional Federal 
Government (TFG), was reported to have said war with the Union of 
Islamic Courts (UIC), which controls the capital, Mogadishu, and much of 
central and southern Somalia, was imminent and inevitable.

In an interview on Monday with the Associated Press, Gedi was quoted as 
saying: "Those who believe that the situation in Somalia will be solved 
through dialogue and talks are wrong." The TFG refused to be drawn any 
further on the subject.

The UIC has said Gedi's remarks were an indication that the TFG had 
decided "to go the war way".

"These are the words of a man who has decided to wage war rather than 
negotiate," Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali, the UIC's vice-chairman, said.

Ali said the UIC was prepared to continue peaceful dialogue with the 
transitional government "but if attacked, we are ready and willing to 
defend our country and our people from a war orchestrated and led by 
Ethiopia".

The UIC claimed Ethiopian troops were in the country to support the 
fledgling transitional government. However, Ethiopian officials have 
denied sending a fighting force to Somalia, but have acknowledged that 
their "military advisers" were helping the transitional government, 
which is based in the southern town of Baidoa.

Lazzarini said conflict in Somalia would undoubtedly have regional 
consequences, including the movement of thousands of people into 
neighbouring countries.

Already, an estimated 444,000 people are affected by flooding, with the 
"worst-case scenario" putting as many as 900,000 Somalis in danger of 
displacement if the flooding continues in December, according to 
OCHA-Somalia.

According to OCHA, "a mixture of conflict and escalating tensions, 
coupled with the impact of the drought in the first half of this year, 
has resulted in over 300,000 people moving internally, seeking 
protection". This is in addition to the 400,000 long-term IDPs who have 
been living in camps for at least 10 years.

"There is no doubt that these figures will significantly increase with a 
widespread conflict," Lazzarini said.

"The current war of words is creating a very worrying situation," said 
Muhammad Nur Ga'al, deputy head of Civil Society in Action, a coalition 
of civil-society groups. "War is not inevitable and should not be; both 
sides need to pull back from the brink and go back to the negotiating 
table."

The two sides have met in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, but failed to 
reach any lasting agreement.

Ga'al said: "Somali people have suffered from drought and now floods. I 
hope that those who aspire to be their leaders will not add war to that 
list of calamities."

Somalia's transitional government was installed in Nairobi in late 2004 
in an effort to bring peace and security to the Horn of Africa country, 
which has not had an effective government for 16 years.

In June this year, the Islamic Courts' militias defeated warlords who 
had controlled the city since 1991, following the collapse of the regime 
headed by Somalia's last real president, Muhammad Siyad Barre.


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