East Africa - FAO: 13-Feb-98
East Africa - FAO: 13-Feb-98
FAO GLOBAL INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
SPECIAL REPORT
HEAVY RAINS ATTRIBUTED TO EL NINO CAUSE
EXTENSIVE CROP DAMAGE IN PARTS OF EASTERN AFRICA
13 February 1998
OVERVIEW
Since October 1997, exceptionally heavy rains associated with the El Nino
phenomenon have caused havoc in most parts of eastern Africa, with severe
floods seriously affecting food production and distribution. The floods
have also caused extensive damage to crops, both in the field and in
stores, as well as losses of large numbers of livestock. Severe damage has
also been inflicted on the sub-region's infrastructure (roads, bridges,
rail lines), seriously disrupting the movement of goods within and between
countries. In some countries such as Somalia and Kenya loss of human life
has been significant. Food assistance is currently being provided to the
affected people in these countries but substantial assistance is still
urgently needed not only in the form of food but also as logistical
support in view of transport difficulties. In the sub-region as a whole
some 10 million people currently require emergency assistance.
SITUATION BY COUNTRY
SOMALIA
Torrential rains in mid- October caused the worst floods in decades,
resulting in an estimated 2 000 deaths, 250 000 displaced persons, serious
damage to housing and infrastructure and crop and livestock losses.
The heavy rains that persisted until early January adversely affected the
1997/98 secondary -Deyr- crops, normally accounting for some 20 percent of
the annual cereal production, which had been planted just before the
floods occurred. Worst affected areas are the main southern agricultural
parts, along the Juba and Shebelle rivers, particularly Baidoa, Q/dhere,
Dinsor, Bardere, Jilib, Jamame, Sablale, K/Warey, Brava, Kismayo, Xagar
and Afmadow where crop losses are estimated to be around 80 percent. With
the recession of the water levels, extensive replanting has taken place
from December but the outcome is uncertain. For the country as a whole,
preliminary estimates indicate a decline in production of one-third of the
expected normal level. This is the fourth year of below-average harvest. A
more detailed assessment of the -Deyr- output is currently being
undertaken. The floods also resulted in losses of household cereal stocks
from the 1997 main -Gu- season. Production of that season was also poor
due to dry spells. The 1997/98 aggregate cereal production is
provisionally estimated at 290 000 tons, close to the previous year's
below-average level. Import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year
(August/July) have been revised upward to 310 000 tons, of which about 110
000 tons will need to be covered by food aid.
While the floods alone resulted in losses of livestock estimated at 35 500
animals, the outbreak of the Rift Valley Fever, which has spread since
October from north-eastern Kenya to southern areas of Somalia, is
reportedly causing losses of large numbers of animals, mainly camels and
goats.
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS, ROME
KENYA
Heavy rains particularly in November and January resulted in serious
floods which caused loss of life, extensive damage to infrastructure and
housing, left many villages isolated and displaced large sections of the
local population. The areas worst affected include the Coast Province,
North Eastern Province and parts of the Eastern Province. These areas have
been declared a Disaster Zone by the Government, which has appealed for
international assistance to cope with the emergency.
The rains also adversely affected the 1997/98 maize crop, the main staple
of the country. Torrential rains in October/November, at the time of the
harvest of the main season crop, which accounts for some 80 percent of the
annual output, reduced yields of maize already affected by a dry spell at
the critical grain-filling stage. Yields of wheat were also affected by
heavy rains at harvest. However, the worst effect of the floods was on the
second season crops, grown in the bi-modal rainfall areas of Western,
Central and Eastern provinces from mid-October to February. The maize
output of this season is estimated to have declined by one-third from
normal levels, while the bean crop was sharply reduced due to both adverse
weather and lack of seed. In aggregate, the 1997/98 maize production is
estimated at 2.3 million tons, slightly above the reduced level of 1996/97
but below the average of the past five years. The food supply situation is
anticipated to be tight in the months ahead. Maize import requirements,
expected to be covered mostly commercially, are estimated at 800 000 tons.
This is, however, lower than in the previous year when maize imports
reached 1 million tons. Total cereal imports, including wheat and rice in
which the country has a structural deficit, in 1997/98 (October/September)
are provisionally forecast at 1.2 million tons.
While the abundant rains of the past months improved pastures for
livestock, an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in October, as a result of the
flooding that has caused an explosion in the mosquito population that
carries the culprit virus, has resulted in the deaths of many people as
well as losses of thousands of cattle, sheep, goats and camel.
TANZANIA
The main impact of the heavy rains and consequent flooding since November
1997 has been the severe disruption of rail and road systems in the
country, which is causing serious problems in transporting essential goods
to areas of need. Of particular concern are remote villages where framers
have lost production or stocks due the rains and where relief food cannot
be transported due to impassable roads.
The heavy rains resulted also in localized crop losses and damage of the
1997/98 -Vuli- crop, grown from October to February. The worst affected
areas are the low-lying parts of Mara, Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Tanga and
Shinyanga regions, as well as southern parts of Mwanza where heavy clay
soils predominate. However, as crop cultivation is also practised in
highland areas production here will be favourable due to higher rainfall.
Overall, losses in low lying areas will tend to be compensated by gains in
highland areas. The Vuli crop, which is the least important of the
country's three annual crops, is expected to be good and production is
anticipated to recover from a succession of drought-affected harvests .
Following a destructive drought in 1996/97, and in addition to crop
losses, a large number of livestock were lost in pastoral areas. The heavy
rains in the last few months have had a very beneficial effect on
pastures, which will result in recovery in the livestock sector. >From a
household food security point of view, such recovery has important
implications for some sections of the population, such as the Masai, who
rely heavily on livestock.
In central and southern parts, where cereal crops of the 1998 main season
are at developing stage, crop losses to floods in low-lying areas of
Iringa and Mbeya regions may be significant. However, the abundant
precipitation of the past months has been generally beneficial and,
providing favourable weather prevails in the remainder of the growing
season, production may recover from the poor level of 1997. An FAO/WFP
Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has just returned from the country
and is finalizing its report.
UGANDA
Heavy rains from mid-November to early December, mainly in the eastern
parts, resulted in floods and mudslides which caused loss of life, damage
to housing and infrastructure and localized crop losses. Food assistance
to the flood-affected population is currently being provided, but the
operations are being hampered by bad road conditions. However, the overall
outlook for the current second season food crops, now being harvested, is
favourable. Despite the localized crop losses, the abundant rains since
the beginning of the season were beneficial for crop development. The
heavy rains have also improved pastures and livestock conditions,
particularly in the Karamoja region, previously affected by prolonged dry
weather.
Prices of maize and beans, which by December 1997 had doubled in a year,
are anticipated to decline with the arrival of the new crop in the
markets; the previously tight food supply, following two consecutive
reduced harvests, is expected to ease. Nevertheless, the food situation
will remain difficult for the large number of displaced people in northern
parts, affected by persistent civil conflict.
ETHIOPIA
Unusually heavy rains began in all zones of the country during the first
dekad of October and continued until the end of November. These rains
disrupted harvesting patterns for all crops; accentuated seed drop in
teff; slowed the rate of desiccation of later sown grains prior to
threshing; increased spoilage in stacks of harvested cereals; caused some
germination in standing crops of wheat and sorghum; and increased the
likelihood of fungal attacks in both standing and stored grains,
particularly pulses. In the south-eastern parts bordering Somalia and
Kenya, the heavy rains resulted in extensive flooding causing loss of
life, displacement of a large number of people and damage to housing.
Over 12 000 domestic animals are reported to have been lost and 30 000
hectares of land inundated. Food and non-food assistance is being
distributed by the Government in the affected areas.
The heavy rains, which followed erratic precipitation earlier in the
season, coupled with a lower use of fertilisers, resulted in a one-quarter
decline in the 1997 grain production from the record level of the previous
year. Following two years of self-sufficiency, the grain import
requirement in 1998 is estimated at 530 000 tons, to be covered mainly by
food aid, for over 5 million vulnerable people, including those affected
by a reduced harvest.
ERITREA
Unseasonable rains in October at harvest time led to spoilage in stacks of
harvested cereals and reduced yields of the crops already adversely
affected by a dry spell in September, when the crops were at the critical
maturing stage. The grain output is estimated at the same reduced level of
1996. Also, as a result of the unexpected heavy rains, high levels of
locust infestations were reported in northern parts but control operations
have been undertaken.
Cereal prices, which normally decline at harvest time, registered a sharp
increase in November reflecting the anticipated poor output. With a
below-average cereal harvest for the third consecutive year and a sharp
reduction in grain export availability from neighbouring Ethiopia, the
food situation will be tight in the year ahead.
Elsewhere in the sub-region, crop yields were adversely affected by a one
month delay in the onset of the rains in Rwanda and Burundi, followed by
heavy rains since mid-October that resulted in floods and localized crop
losses in low-lying areas. However, because of significant increases in
plantings, food production in these two countries is estimated to have
increased from the reduced levels of the previous year. Nevertheless,
civil strife in these countries continues to constrain food production. In
the Sudan, the 1997 coarse grains production was negatively affected by
below average precipitation in parts, mainly in the South where the
harvest was sharply reduced, but also in areas of the Western regions of
North Darfur and North Kordofan. The output is estimated 15 percent down
on the bumper harvest of the previous year but still above average. While
overall, food supplies are expected to be adequate due to high levels of
carryover stocks, relief food aid is needed for 2.4 million displaced and
drought-affected people.
FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System is continuously
monitoring the effects on crops of weather anomalies attributed to El Nino
and their impact on food supply situation in various parts of the world
and will issue periodic updates as necessary.
This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO Secretariat
with information from official and unofficial sources. Since
conditions may change rapidly, please contact Mr. Abdur Rashid,
Chief, ESCG, FAO, (Telex 610181 FAO I; Fax: 0039-6-5705-4495, E-Mail
(INTERNET): GIEWS1@FAO.ORG) for further information if
required.Please note that this Special Report is available on the
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