U N I T E D   N A T I O N S
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Integrated Regional Information Network for Central Asia

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Central Asia
IRIN-CA Weekly Round-up 37
15 - 21 December 2001


CONTENTS:

AFGHANISTAN: Interim administration faces key challenges
AFGHANISTAN: Refugees returning from Iran
IRAN: WFP prepares for greater role
PAKISTAN: Change of tack since 11 September
PAKISTAN: Pakistan's economy set to improve
PAKISTAN: Intruding sea water threatens Indus river
TAJIKISTAN: Winter energy crisis looms

AFGHANISTAN: Interim administration faces key challenges

The proposed Afghan administration set to take up the reins of the country
for six months from 22 December faces daunting challenges, analysts and
officials say, cautioning against too much expectations from the new
setup. "There are many expectations about Afghanistan now... I will
caution against too much expectations," Dr Babur Shah, a senior analyst at
the Islamabad-based Institute of Strategic Studies, told IRIN on Thursday,
two days before the new administration was to be installed in the Afghan
capital, Kabul. "The new administration will have to tread very carefully,
be accommodative to others, and bring on board any major party which feels
left out. They do not have to wait for six months to do that," Shah said.

Shah said one of the key areas the new administration should address was
improving the security situation in the country. Security was also crucial
for aid operations by the United Nations and the nongovernmental
organisations giving the impoverished people of Afghanistan lifeline
support. Hundreds of foreign relief workers are still unable to return to
large parts of Afghanistan due to lack of security, hampering critical aid
work for millions of Afghans dependent on food and other aid handouts.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has underlined the need for global support
to bring peace, security and stability in Afghanistan. "We face daunting
challenges in Afghanistan, but today we need global support, and there is
global support for that unhappy country," Annan said on Wednesday.
"Indeed, the people of Afghanistan have an unprecedented opportunity to
begin anew, and to construct a state that defends their rights and their
interests. We will still face a grave humanitarian challenge, as well as
acute security problems that must be addressed," he told the annual
year-end news conference at the UN headquarters in New York. "But today
there is also hope of a new, broad-based government, and a new effort to
rehabilitate the country and set it on the path of development. The chance
must not be missed - by Afghans, by their neighbours, or by the
international community," Annan added. [For full report see:
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=18130]

AFGHANISTAN: Refugees returning from Iran

The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
expects a surge in the spontaneous return of Afghans from Iran in the
coming weeks, following a significant number returning this month, a UNHCR
official said on Wednesday. A UNHCR spokesman, Muhammad Nuri, told IRIN
from the Iranian capital, Tehran, that he expected an increase in the
number of Afghans returning from Iran in the next few weeks, but could not
say whether the security conditions were conducive to those wishing to go
home.

Since 12 November, when the Taliban were routed from the western city of
Herat, the refugees in Iran started going home in large numbers, touching
a peak of 7,600 people last week, and bringing the total number of Afghan
refugees back from Iran in 2001 to 130,000. Nuri said these refugees were
going back through a spontaneous return scheme organised by the Iranian
authorities, under which they had to pay travelling costs, but were
facilitated at the border, including help at the customs with their
personal belongings. [For full report see:
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=18022]

IRAN: WFP prepares for greater role

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is increasingly looking at
Iran as a viable springboard for getting more food aid into Afghanistan.
"Our objective is to promote the western corridor," Marius de Gaay
Fortman, the WFP country representative in Iran, told IRIN in the capital,
Tehran, on Monday. "At the moment, about one third to one fourth is going
through Iran. Half the caseload in the north could easily be accessed from
Iran," he said. As of 22 November, WFP's operations there had delivered
828 mt of wheat to the western Afghan city of Herat, and over 5,000 mt to
Turkmenabad in Turkmenistan for delivery to the north, with thousands more
tonnes in stock, dispatched or in transit. There were some 3.2 million
beneficiaries in the north who could be served from Iran, de Gaay Fortman
said.

Asked how their logistical capacity had changed since 11 September, de
Gaay Fortman noted that WFP in Iran had established field offices in the
cities of Mashhad, Zahedan, Chabahar (Chah Bahar) and Bandar-e Abbas, as
well as warehouses in Tehran, Mashhad and Zahedan. Additionally, ground
support in the country had been greatly enhanced.

Regarding concerns and priorities, he said they were managing some 100,000
mt between local purchases and the arrival of new shipments in the port at
the same moment in a country which had never seen this type of emergency
before. Although WFP maintains it has received enormous support from the
Iranian foreign and interior ministries, more time is needed to meet needs
and expectations. "Too few people have discovered that this is an enormous
political, social and economic opportunity for the Islamic Republic of
Iran," he said. [For full report see:
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=16081]

PAKISTAN: Change of tack since 11 September

The rapid developments in Afghanistan since 11 September have strongly
impacted on its eastern neighbour, Pakistan, ending its isolation from the
West and raising hopes for an economic recovery. However, analysts and aid
workers also say what has happened has brought more refugees into the
country, now hosting more than two million Afghans, and more drugs. "It's
potentially the most important development in the country in the last 30
years," said Najam Sethi, editor and an analyst of Pakistani affairs. "It
has forced Pakistan to make a new start," he told IRIN from Lahore,
Pakistan's second-largest city and capital of Punjab Province.

After 11 September, the US swiftly mounted what it said was an
anti-terrorism campaign, targeting Saudi-born Osama bin Laden, whom it
accused of masterminding the attacks, his Al-Qaeda (Al-Qa'idah) network
and the hardline Islamic Taliban movement hosting them both in
Afghanistan. The Taliban, supported solely by Pakistan, which withdrew its
backing before the campaign was launched, were rapidly dismantled in the
face of the intense military assault led by the US and forces of the
opposition Northern Alliance.

Pakistan, the last country to abandon the globally isolated Taliban, next
extended its total support to the Washington-led coalition fighting
terrorism worldwide. This support, strategically vital for Washington,
earned President Pervez Musharraf's government strong condemnation from
pro-Taliban Islamic groups in Pakistan, initially raising fears of a
possible destabilisation of that government, which, however, proved
unfounded. [For full report see:
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=17833]

PAKISTAN: Pakistan's economy set to improve

Pakistan's key stock prices are expected to surge starting next week in a
sign of approval of the country's debt rescheduling agreement struck last
week with the Paris Club of creditors, financial analysts told IRIN on
Thursday. The feeling across the stock market has been strong since the 11
September attacks in the US as many investors have hoped for a US-backed
large-scale international package of economic assistance as a quid pro quo
for Washington's war in Afghanistan. The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)
representative 100 index has surged by nearly 10 percent since 11
September, though it still remains about 8 percent below the point it had
reached when trading for the year began in January this year.

That confidence follows the debt rescheduling in Paris, which involves
substantial concessions on about US $12.5 billion in debt owed to Paris
Club member countries. This debt of $12.5 billion is among the more
expensive debts in Pakistan's overall foreign debt of about $38 billion.
Officials say the concessions will substantially reduce annual debt
servicing costs. Pakistani government officials say they expect to save
about $3 billion on debt servicing in the next three years alone. "The
agreement allows us to create much-needed fiscal space to redirect to
health, education, women's development, poverty reduction and jobs,"
Pakistani Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz said after the announcement by the
Paris Club.

The rescheduling involves about two-thirds of the $12.5 billion debt to be
repaid over the next 38 years, while the remaining one-third over the next
23 years. The debt to be repaid over the next 38 years also has a 15-year
grace period, while the debt to be paid back over the next 23 years comes
with a five-year grace period. The agreement effectively means that
Pakistan is no longer in danger of defaulting on repayments on its foreign
debt. Some economists say the concessions mean that Pakistan's total
foreign debt of about $38 billion has been reduced by about 30 percent.
[For full report see: http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=18056]

PAKISTAN: Intruding sea water threatens Indus river

Several coastal cities and towns in Sindh Province of southern Pakistan
are exposed to a threat of seawater intrusion, with the Arabian Sea
already having destroyed millions of acres of arable land and displaced
thousands of people, government officials and experts have told IRIN. "The
sea water is persistently advancing into the Indus river because of
immense lack of flow from the upstream to downstream river," Mir Ali Shah,
the Sindh Province irrigation minister, told IRIN in an interview. "The
construction of barrages during the British rule disrupted the water flow
of the Indus to a great extent, followed by more barrages afterwards,"
Shah added.

The barrages revolutionised the region's agro-based economy, irrigating in
particular the cotton-growing areas, which catered for the needs of the
mills of Manchester during the post-Second World War industrial boom, and
later for those of Pakistan also. However, the phenomenon also had a
negative fallout: the river's water flow decreased, thereby gradually
allowing sea water to encroach on the fresh. "In rivers with a long
duration of high flows, fresh water is able to prevent salt water from
intruding into the channel. If the volume of fresh water is large enough,
fresh water can push salt water away from the river mouth," Tahir Qureshi,
director of coastal ecology projects at the International Union for the
Conservation of Nature (IUCN), told IRIN.

The effects are not just restricted to land inundation: both mangrove
forests - an essential breeding ground for shrimps - and freshwater fish
species are disappearing fast. There has also been severe damage to
livestock. Saltwater intrusion caused a dramatic decline in livestock
numbers, bringing about depletion and erosion of ranges, shortages of
fodder, pasture and potable water and a resulting mass migration of
inhabitants.

A short-term solution may be very simple: an injection of fresh water into
the Indus could restore life and property. "We have got several studies,
including that of IUCN, which suggest [that a] discharge of 35 million
acre feet of water (MFA), 27 MFA and even 10 MFA at the delta [could
help]," Shah said. Time, however, is running out. "The destruction that
has so far taken place, although drastic, is still reversible. If the
authorities do not ensure the flow of the required quantity of water in
the Indus, things would be irreversible," Tahir Qureshi warned. [For full
report see: http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=18129]

TAJIKISTAN: Winter energy crisis looms

Many Tajiks will again have to fend for themselves this winter as
temperatures plummet and the state remains unable to meet domestic heating
needs through gas and coal, energy officials and experts have told IRIN.
Following a post-Soviet economic decline, and a five-year civil war that
ended in 1997, interruptions in winter heating have become the norm for
Tajiks throughout the country. Despite the constraints, officials said the
government was working hard to improve the system and provide residents
with heating. The head of the mayoral office's department of engineering
systems in the capital, Dushanbe, Abdusami Latipov, told IRIN that all
three boiler-houses of the capital had been repaired and were in a good
condition. "If gas is supplied regularly, there will be no interruptions
in the heating supply," Latipov said.

However, Tajikistan's winter heating is dependent on complicated gas and
electricity imports from neighbouring Uzbekistan. Every year, an agreement
sees the delivery of Uzbek natural gas to three of the most populated
regions of Tajikistan. Now the Uzbek authorities are demanding payment for
the gas upfront. The deputy director-general of the Tajik partner,
Tajikgaz, Gulrukhsor Jonmahmadova, told IRIN that the main supplier,
Uzbektransgaz, had agreed to supply up to 204 million cubic metres of
extra natural gas by the end of December, upon prepayment. But
impoverished Tajikistan can ill afford it. With the lowest per capita
income of the former Soviet republics, the country has an outstanding
energy debt of 81 million somonis, or US $51 million, at today’s exchange
rate. [For full report see:
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=17997]


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Copyright (c) UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2001


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