U N I T E D   N A T I O N S
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Integrated Regional Information Network for Central and Eastern Africa

Tel: +254 2 622147
Fax: +254 2 622129
e-mail: irin@ocha.unon.org


CENTRAL AND EASTERN AFRICA
IRIN-CEA Weekly Round-Up 402
7 - 13 October 2007


CONTENTS:

KENYA: Model to predict child malnutrition
GLOBAL: MSF urges new approach to malnutrition treatment
DRC: Army recaptures villages as Nkunda appeals for new ceasefire
DRC: More displaced as insecurity persists in North Kivu


ALSO SEE:

DRC: Thousands of youth risk forced recruitment into militia
http://www.irinnews.org/PrintReport.aspx?ReportId=74691

UGANDA DIARIES: Owiny Lakaragic, - "You can't live with hatred"
http://www.irinnews.org/PrintReport.aspx?ReportId=73955



KENYA: Model to predict child malnutrition

A group of economists working with data collected in Kenya's northern
arid districts have developed a model to predict severe child
malnutrition - an indicator of famine - at least three months in
advance. "Our forecasts are likely to be correct more than 75 percent of
the time," said Andrew Mude, the lead author of the study.

"The [government-run] Arid Lands Resource Management Project has been
collecting information every month since 1996 from households, such as
herd sizes, lactation rates, mortality rates and child nutrition data -
specifically mid-upper arm circumference - which we feel is an accurate
determinant of the nutritional status of a child," he said.

Mude is with the Nairobi-based International Livestock Research
Institute, and one of the five researchers involved in the study,
Empirical Forecasting of Slow-Onset Disasters for Improved Emergency
Response: an Application to Kenya's Arid North.

[Full report:
http://www.irinnews.org/PrintReport.aspx?ReportId=74730]


GLOBAL: MSF urges new approach to malnutrition treatment

Medecins Sans Frontieres has called for a radical shift in the way child
malnutrition is treated across the world, saying therapeutic
ready-to-use foods (RUF), such as Plumpy'nut, should be supplied much
more extensively than is the case now.

Plumpy'nut is one of several brands of nutrient-rich pastes made from
peanut and milk that are used to treat children with severe acute
malnutrition, estimated to number 20 million worldwide.According to MSF,
only 3 percent of these children will have received RUF in 2007. Lesser
forms of malnutrition in children tend to be treated with fortified
blended food.

"We are calling for political commitment [from ministries of health and
donors] and more research that will facilitate the move from fortified
blended food towards RUF," Dr Christophe Fournier, the president of
MSF's International Council, said at a news conference in the Kenyan
capital, Nairobi.

[Full report:
http://www.irinnews.org/PrintReport.aspx?ReportId=74737]


DRC: Army recaptures villages as Nkunda appeals for new ceasefire

Dissident Congolese general Laurent Nkunda has called for a fresh
ceasefire, claiming that the army's artillery fire in North Kivu
province was hitting civilians.

Government forces have retaken several villages from troops loyal to
Nkunda, according to the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC), MONUC.

"Army bombs are falling on civilians . we fear the worst will happen if
we don't take precautions," Nkunda told IRIN by telephone on 11 October.
"We'd like this to stop and for dialogue to take place because this is a
problem that can only be resolved by dialogue, there is no solution with
weapons."

Nkunda, who has resisted integration into the national army, says he is
fighting to protect the Tutsi minority in eastern DRC. The army seemed
bemused by the ceasefire appeal.

"Nkunda is calling for a ceasefire just 24 hours after unilaterally
declaring war against the regular army," said Delphin Kahindi, deputy
commander of the North Kivu military region, directly contradicting
Nkunda's contention that it was the army that repeatedly broke the truce
brokered by MONUC in September.

[Full report:
http://www.irinnews.org/PrintReport.aspx?ReportId=74757]


DRC: More displaced as insecurity persists in North Kivu

A new wave of displaced civilians is on the move in the North Kivu
province of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo as dissident general
Laurent Nkunda announced a ceasefire with government troops was broken.

"There are approximately 6,000 IDP [internally displaced persons]
families at Mushake, 90km north of Goma, the provincial capital, fleeing
the current clashes," said Maj Prem Kumar Tiwar, a spokesman for MONUC,
the UN peacekeeping force in the DRC.

He added that clashes between the army and troops loyal to Nkunda were
continuing. Tiwar said MONUC helicopters were monitoring the situation
with frequent reconnaissance flights. The UN Office for the Coordination
of Humanitarian Affairs was also due to send another assessment team to
the affected areas, according to OCHA spokesman Louis Igneault. [Full
report: http://www.irinnews.org/PrintReport.aspx?ReportId=74716 ] [See
also: Violence cuts off 150,000 people from aid - WFP
http://www.irinnews.org/PrintReport.aspx?ReportId=74693 ]


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