31 October 1997
This is the second in a series of information updates provided on a fortnightly basis by the WFP Regional Office (but the first to be forwarded to WFP Emergency Report recipients). Please note that the WFP Regional Office coverage is Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Information received by Swaziland has also been included in this report.
I. El Nino Overview:
The El Nino index continues to show a negative pattern similar to previous events which resulted in droughts in Southern Africa. Below normal rainfall is predicted for most of South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, central, north-west and southern Mozambique, all of Zimbabwe and most of eastern and southern Botswana, southern Malawi and southern Zambia beginning in December. Rainfall in the region has been within normal range during the months of September and October; early offset is still highly probable.
WFP's monthly synthesis of more detailed information, including movement of the Southern Oscillation Index and data from satellites showing vegetation and rainfall patterns for southern Africa, will be available on the tenth of each month. October's information will be included in the next Information Update.
II. Regional Contingency Planning - progress to date:
Three WFP teams are at work on the regional contingency plans being prepared by the Regional WFP office for Southern Africa, based in Maputo. The team charged with assessing socio-economic impacts of a possible drought has prepared a preliminary draft report including a summary of lessons learned from the 1991-2 drought response, key relevant economic and political indicators for each country, possible impacts on Southern Africa of the El Nino phenomenon and the response options available for the possible scenarios. The team surveying the market situations returned from the field on 24 October, while the logistics team will finish its country visits on 28 October. As reported, a draft plan incorporating the work of all three teams will be compiled in early November. The tentative date for a briefing on the preliminary planning results is November 7 at the WFP Maputo office.
The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Harare is organizing a Regional High-Level Drought Policy Seminar to be held November 17-19 in Gaborone. The purpose of the seminar is to review the extent of drought preparedness and mitigation in Southern Africa in light of El Nino. An EU contingency planning mission, which will cover Malawi, Zambia, South Africa and Mozambique, is due to visit the region in early November.
III. Country reports:
Following is a summary of situations by country, including government initiatives and preliminary information on food reserves. More systematic information on issues relevant to El Nino contingency planning will be included in the WFP document mentioned above.
Lesotho
The Disaster Management Authority continues to monitor the situation. Moisture has been sufficient to provide satisfactory conditions for winter crops.
Madagascar
The Ministry of Internal Affairs organized a session on El Nino on 22 October, which focussed on disaster preparedness and response, the El Nino event and its possible consequences was also included in the annual workshop on preparation for the cyclone season. The locust infestation, which has already caused a food supply shortage this year, continues to require urgent attention. As recommended by the recent joint WFP-FAO crops assessment mission, WFP Food-for-Work projects will be intensified in affected areas to provide an additional 442 tons of maize and 55 tons of pulses. The Chinese Government has provided 3,000 tons of rice for locust-affected areas.
Malawi
Several ministries (including Agriculture and Water) have compiled preparedness plans for a 1997-98 El Nino event but their significant budget requirements preclude quick action. WFP has convoked the UN Disaster Working Group to facilitate coordination. In order to confront the national shortfall of maize, estimated at around 151,000 tons, the Malawi government is planning to purchase approximately 34,000 tons using its own resources. Markets are being bolstered by the Government of Japan, which is prepared to make a significant donation of grains and/or rice, and the EU, which has agreed to assist with 14,000 tons of maize.
Mozambique
The Department for the Prevention and Management of Natural Disasters (DPCCN) held a meeting on 16 October for ministries, donors and UN agencies to discuss mitigation and preparedness plans for El Nino. The Ministry of Agriculture is preparing an extensive list of needs, including seeds, tools and livestock, and is encouraging farmers to plant cassava, millet and sweet potatoes. No hybrid maize seeds are in country, so short growing varieties are in scarce supply. The National Institute of Meteorology held a briefing on 23 October to report on the anticipated effects of El Nino on the rainy season. Normal to below normal rainfalls are expected in southern and central Mozambique for the period October through December, with below normal rainfalls from December onward. Normal rainfall is anticipated in northern Mozambique from now through February.
The Ministry of Commerce reported that EU funds are available for buying between 14,000 and 20,000 tons of cereal to build up a cereal reserve. USAID confirmed the contribution of USD 25 million for food aid and the availability of funds for the Ministry of Transport to improve internal transport and port capacity. The Italian Cooperation has indicated willingness to provide funds for transport and distribution of food in case of a drought.
Swaziland
The Swazi government has officially requested WFP's assistance in undertaking a rapid assessment of the drought expected as a result of El Nino. The National Food Security Consultative Committee has met to discuss contingency plans and strategies to assist farmers to be prepared for the drought. Total domestic cereal available is 127,300 tons, sufficient to cover only 70% of total domestic cereal requirements (assessed at 183,200 tons). The domestic cereal shortfall, mainly composed of wheat and rice, is projected at 55,900 tons but enough import plans are in place to cover demand. At the moment, Government does not have any food supplies, although a preliminary budget has been submitted setting out purchase, delivery and distribution costs for at least 1,000 tons of maize should an emergency situation arise.
Zambia
Three working committees coordinated by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries have completed the development of technical packages and an action plan has been disseminated. Information brochures have been prepared and translated into the four main languages of the southern part of the country (the area most likely to fact rainfall shortages), and will be distributed through the extension system. While the government is planning televised discussions on mitigation measures for the beginning of November, private seed companies are using radio campaigns to encourage the purchase of early maturing seed varieties. Zambia still faces a food stock deficit, although the Food Reserve Agency has procured 70,000 tons of maize from Zimbabwe and is considering the importation of 100,000 tons from other sources. The private sector has imported another 20,000 tons to strengthen food reserves.
Zimbabwe
The Government of Zimbabwe confirmed that the Grain Marketing Board has set up strategic grain reserves which will satisfy approximately five months of consumption (500,000 tons of white maize) and has a cash reserve which would allow the import of approximately 300,000 tons more. Zimbabwe will honor its present commitments for the export of around 350,000 tons of white maize; however, no new export permits will be issued prior to the first reliable estimate of the new crop at around late March 1998. The price for Zimbabwe white maize for local consumption has risen from about USD 150.00 per ton to about USD 172.00 over the past week.
IV. Cereal Supply Situation
While there have been reports of rapidly rising prices for RSA white maize, WFP has noted only slight modifications in price since its last update (15 October). It would appear that prices for white maize are stabilizing at around USD 187.00 - 190.00 per ton (FOB Durban) while the price of yellow maize has increased slightly, from USD 147.00 to USD 148.00. Estimates of export availability of white maize range from 3-400,000 tons and of yellow maize from 2-300,000 tons. In comparison, the approximate price of USA maize is USD 158.00 for white and USD 122.00 for yellow (per ton FOB Gulf).
For further information, please contact
Ms Georgia Shaver Regional Manager for Southern Africa e-mail address: shaver@wfpcomoz.uem.mz
or Ms Andrea Stoutland WFP Maputo e-mail address: andrea@wfpcomoz.uem.mz