12 November 1997This is the third in a series of information updates provided on a fortnightly basis by the WFP Regional Office (and the second to be forwarded to WFP Emergency Report recipients). Please note that the WFP Regional Office coverage is Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
I. El Nino Overview:
The Southern Oscillation Index (one of the key indicators of the magnitude of an El Nino event) continues to show negative deviations even greater than those of the 1991-1992 major event, which caused very severe drought in Southern Africa. While there have been patches of lower than normal rainfall in the region during this period (most notably in southern Mozambique, southern Zambia, a north-to-south band down the middle of Zimbabwe, and western Lesotho), they do not signal a significant departure from the norm. Similarly, vegetation maps for October do not show significant variations from the norm.
II. Regional Contingency Planning - progress to date:
The WFP Regional Office in Maputo held a briefing for government, UN agencies, donors and NGO's on November 7 to present its initial framework for drought contingency planning. The framework was the result of a regional study of socio-economic impacts of a possible drought, logistic considerations for a large-scale emergency response (should it be required), and market conditions which could affect the purchase and distribution of food and materials. Highlights follow.
Socio-economic impacts: Many countries are vulnerable due to residual effects from the 1991/2 drought and current emergencies (including cyclone and locust infestation in Madagascar, floods in parts of Mozambique). The economies of several countries are in a transitional phase. Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique and Zimbabwe all have elections planned for early 1998, which could have some effect on relief efforts. Logistics considerations: While a drought would generate a considerable volume of grain imports into the region, the regional transport system has adequate capacity to match the import levels of the 1992/93 drought with comparatively minor additional investments.
All transport corridors are available, and restructuring reforms have liberalized the transport sector. Regional coordination arrangements would have to be made to accommodate a large increase in demand; Corridor Groups organized for the 1991/2 drought would probably be re-established Market issues: Grain marketing boards have been privatized in the region, and major international grain trading companies play a more important role than five years ago. The collection of data on total grain imports is now more complex. With the end of sanctions against South Africa, the major supplier of grain to the region, marketing channels have increased notably, while Mozambique has now entered the official export market. Imports from the U.S. would be a viable option if needed in 1998; a surplus harvest there this year has made prices competitive (even including transport costs).
During the briefing, the WFP Regional Manager reiterated that any WFP food appeal linked to the anticipated drought would be formulated on a regional, rather than country-by-country, basis. Food aid needs in the rest of Africa are significant this year, given drought in Tanzania, floods in Somalia and Ethiopia, and vulnerable refugees and returnees in the Great Lakes region.
The WFP Regional Manager and Country Directors from the Southern Africa Region will meet in Johannesburg on 17 November to finalize WFP regional contingency planning, and the final report will be released by the end of the month. The EU contingency planning mission, originally scheduled for November, is now expected for early December.
III. Country reports:
Following is a summary of situations by country, based on information provided by WFP Country Offices.
Lesotho
Dry and hot weather conditions have adversely affected the winter wheat crop in the lowland districts and have delayed ploughing and planting operations for the 1997/8 summer crops. The Ministry of Agriculture has issued warnings about anticipated drought, and has advised farmers to stagger their planting and to use drought-resistant varieties and hybrid seeds. The Disaster Management Authority has decided to increase the frequency of its meetings from monthly to fortnightly. The WFP office has organized separate drought contingency planning meetings with the Food Management Unit (storage and transport needs), the Civil Works Section (Food for Work programmes), and the Ministry of Education (school feeding and water for schools).
Madagascar
The locust infestation has worsened as locust swarms have spread from the south to central and northwest Madagascar, and its effect on agriculture nationwide will increase Madagascar's vulnerability to drought conditions. During the monthly Government/Donors meeting held on 4 November, FAO experts noted that it now appears that it will not be possible to completely eliminate the existing locust swarms in the coming months. WFP has approved an emergency operation to distribute maize (442 tons) and pulses (55 tons).
Malawi
The government has launched an appeal for food aid which includes concern about probable effects of El Niqo, requesting funds to purchase 87,000 tons of maize to restock the Strategic Grain Reserve in preparation for anticipated reduced harvests. Donors questioned some of the grounds for the appeal (especially its use of a relatively high daily calorie requirement), but there is concern about potential shortages nonetheless, due to a decline in food production last year.
Donors advised shifting emphasis from the National Food Gap toward the introduction of effective safety nets for the most vulnerable populations, as a way of better targeting resources. They emphasized the need for improved transparency and efficiency in the management of the Strategic Grain Reserve. The government also solicited funds for a national workshop on El Niqo.
WFP is working with the government to prepare realistic plans for confronting a possible El Niqo-related emergency. In addition, under the auspices of the Vulnerability Assessment and Monitoring (VAM) project, WFP is leading the planning and implementation of a national nutrition and household food security monitoring system known as Monitoring for Empowerment.
Mozambique
The Government presented a draft of its Multi-sector Plan of Action for Drought Mitigation, to be presented formally at upcoming donors' meeting. The draft outlines a strategy involving increasing agricultural production in areas of lower risk of drought (primarily the north); strengthening the National Cereals Institute (ICM) and improving small farmers' access to it, including through road rehabilitation. Sorghum and millet are being distributed at subsidized prices, with emphasis on the central and southern provinces. Crop germination in general appears normal.
The WFP office has offered the government technical assistance for gathering information at the provincial level on rainfall levels, crop and market conditions and other data relevant to tracking effects of El Niqo. International NGO's in the northern province of Nampula met for a seminar with provincial government officials to develop a strategy for gathering information on climatic conditions and drought impacts at a local level.
Zambia
Media campaigns by government on the El Niqo phenomenon have continued, as has a campaign by a private seed company to promote early maturing seed varieties; the company has reported positive results. The Ministry of Agriculture has formed a subcommittee to consider the distribution of root and tuber crops to mitigate the effects of a drought. The Food Relief Technical Committee (of which WFP is a member) agreed on the need for a Food Needs Assessment mission, to be carried out by the government in conjunction with the Programme Against Malnutrition (PAM). The mission started work on 10th November, with results expected by the end of November.
Zimbabwe
Early planting of maize has started under irrigation, and by small farmers in areas which have received rainfall. In one province (Midlands), the Zimbabwe Farmers Union, in conjunction with a major commercial outlet, is supplementing the government's Crop Pack scheme by supplying seed, fertiliser and some chemicals to local grassroots community groups at much-reduced cost. The Association of Food and Marketing Enterprises in Eastern and Southern Africa (AFMISA) will hold a workshop in Harare this month, during which some of the conflicting figures on grain availability which are circulating may be clarified. Prices for maize on the Zimbabwe Agricultural Commodity Exchange (ZIMACE) have leveled off for the time being.
For further information, please contact
Ms Georgia Shaver Regional Manager for Southern Africa e-mail address: shaver@wfpcomoz.uem.mz
or Ms Andrea Stoutland WFP Maputo e-mail address: andrea@wfpcomoz.uem.mz