Information Update from WFP Regional Office for Southern Africa, No. 4
Maputo, Mozambique 25 November 1997
This is the fourth in a series of information updates provided on a fortnightly basis. Please note that the WFP Regional Office coverage is Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Information received from Swaziland has also been included in this report.
I. El Nino Overview:
This year's El Nino event continues to be as significant as any on record. The relevant sea surface temperatures for October were the warmest on historical record, while the five-month mean of the Southern Oscillation Index (another of the key indicators of the magnitude of an El Nino event) was surpassed only by the 1982/3 event during the last twenty years. While there were unusually heavy rains in northern Zambia, and localized storms in Mozambique, overall rainfall levels were normal for the region. Vegetation maps do not yet show any significant variations from the norm, though it is still early in the planting season to expect anomalies.
II. Regional Contingency Planning - progress to date:
WFP Executive Director Catherine Bertini was in Johannesburg on November 17-18, a visit which drew attention to the potential impact of El Nino on southern Africa, as well as to regional efforts to mitigate the effects of the anticipated drought. In a press conference, she gave tentative preliminary estimates of food aid needs for the region in case of drought, highlighted WFP's contingency planning efforts, and referred to important follow-up activities to be undertaken by early 1998. Those activities include negotiation with governments on access to grain reserves by WFP and NGOs for emergency relief; assessment of mid-season crop and food needs to ensure timeliness and accuracy of crop forecasts and emergency food aid estimates; establishment of a minimum cereal buffer stock for the regional emergency operation; and continued improvement of coordination between governments, UN agencies, donors and NGOs for information exchange and planning.
A high-level drought policy seminar took place November 17-19 in Gaborone, Botswana, organized by the Botswana College of Agriculture under the auspices of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Food Security Training Project. In addition to keynote addresses on food security strategy and the micro- and macro-economic impacts of drought, the WFP representative gave an overview of WFP strategy, citing some of the lessons learned from the 1991-2 drought and including the advantages of a regional approach to the problem.
WFP also emphasized the importance of improving government disaster management policies and strategies; of establishing transport corridor groups to coordinate logistics in emergency operations; of formulating food appeals jointly between governments, in consultation with donors and international organizations; of devising better food aid programs, particularly with NGO partners; of improving targeting of food aid beneficiaries; and of taking into account country-specific needs for establishing food baskets and cash and food schemes. WFP's contingency planning document was presented and discussed in the policy issue workshop as a model of using a regional focus to devise action plans. A proposal to involve SADC's Maputo-based transport and communications arm (SATCC) in logistics aspects of relief operations and to create a regional logistics coordination unit in Maputo, raised particular interest.
The WFP Regional Manager and Country Directors from the Southern Africa Region met in Johannesburg on November 17 to finalize the WFP regional contingency planning. A final executive summary of the regional contingency planning document will be available in early December, and each Country Office will share the document with the government and donor community.
An EU food security expert is currently in the region on a contingency planning mission to Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique and Swaziland. The purpose of the mission is to evaluate the current state of disaster preparedness, understand the role of the markets and discuss EU/WFP cooperation efforts.
A potential drought situation received attention at a biennial meeting of the Agricultural Food Marketing Agencies of Eastern and Southern Africa (AFMESA), held in Harare on November 18-21, which focussed on cross-border trade as a means to improve food security in the region and enhance regional trade. The concern was voiced that export controls would become commonplace once the drought becomes confirmed, and that with the reduced role of marketing boards, private traders would have more maize available with which to exploit price differences between countries.
III. Country reports:
Following is a summary of situations by country, based on information provided by WFP Country Offices.
Lesotho
Unseasonably high temperatures exacerbated lower than average rainfall in Lesotho. Water supplies are still normal in most towns, but rangelands are suffering from heat and fifty percent overstocking. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (DMA), a considerable increase in maize product sales suggests that most households have exhausted subsistence stocks and are now relying on the marketing system to secure their staple food requirements. The DMA's Food and Logistics Group agreed to consolidate the training needs of all concerned government services, as well as to schedule meetings on the following issues: criteria for selection of vulnerable households; allocation of geographical responsibilities to NGO's for beneficiary selection and food distribution; public information and awareness on drought operation issues; and timely recruitment of necessary staff.
Madagascar
The effects of the locust infestation continue to cause concern, with prices of basic foodstuffs increasing substantially and food supplies limited in some areas, particularly in the south.
Malawi
Rains have commenced as expected for Malawi. Predictions of possible effects of El Nino focus on the southern region where approximately half of Malawi's population resides. The Government hosted a national workshop on El Nino on November 20 and 21. An earlier government food appeal is being rewritten to emphasize the creation of safety nets for vulnerable populations, as recommended by donors, rather than on an analysis of the food gap. The internal maize price band has been raised (to USD 225 per tonne) and stocks of maize on the market have increased. Donors believe the price band needs to increase further in order to attract sellers onto the market. WFP has provided information to the British DFID for its document on El Nino preparedness for its regional office.
Mozambique
While localized downpours caused flash floods in Maputo and the same weather system dumped rain on coastal areas in south and central Mozambique, the mean precipitation levels nationwide were within the norm. WFP met with implementing partner NGOs to determine which geographical areas are covered by ongoing activities in order to see whether, in case of emergency, all geographical areas likely to be affected by El Nino could be covered by extending existing programs. The government's Task Force on El Nino has finalised its interministerial Action Plan. In addition to aspects mentioned in the last information update, proposals include levying an export tax of 50% on maize and creating a reserve (half emergency/half commercial network) of 100,000 tonnes of food (95,000 tonnes of maize and 5,000 tonnes of beans) equal to 3 months stock for 3 million people potentially at risk.
Swaziland
Rains have been unseasonably higher than normal in both the low and highlands recently, however, forecasts point to lower than normal rainfall in the current cropping season. Contrary to advice widely circulated by the media, farmers have generally not planted earlier than usual, therefore, there was very little planting by end September. The advice still being given to farmers is that planting of maize after October is generally not encouraged in most areas.
Meetings are being held by the National Disaster Task Force and UNDP to provide updates on the El Nino situation and the broader issue of establishing a sustainable disaster management structure. On the donor front, the EU will be conducting a food security assessment mission in late November whilst the UK is looking into the other preparedness initiatives such as water supply projects.
Zambia
The El Nino Task Force met on 12 November to look at information dissemination as well as government efforts to create awareness of El Nino risk. Brochures on El Nino with technical information for drought mitigation had been prepared and translated into several languages, but distribution has been limited by budgetary constraints; additional funds are being sought. Weekly radio programs have been launched on El Nino and agricultural practices. WFP has improved its information network with donor representatives.
Zimbabwe
Most parts of Zimbabwe received below normal rainfall during the first three weeks of November, according to national Meteorological Services. Farmers have begun planting in areas where reasonable rainfall has been received while tilling is in progress in most parts of the country. Maize millers have indicated they have sufficient stocks until the new year, with more offers to sell maize than buyers at present.
For further information, please contact
Ms Georgia Shaver Regional Manager for Southern Africa e-mail address: shaver@wfpcomoz.uem.mz
or Ms Andrea Stoutland WFP Maputo e-mail address: andrea@wfpcomoz.uem.mz.