10 December 1997This is the fifth in a series of information updates provided on a fortnightly basis. Please note that the WFP Regional Office coverage is Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
I. El Nino Overview:
The extent of this El Nino, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), continues to be unprecedented: the SOI for November was further from the norm than during the same month of the previous El Nino events. In southern Africa, steady localized rains during this period improved crop prospects in some areas. Given that even a "typical" El Nino scenario anticipates rains through early December, followed by drought, the recent rains have not altered expectations of drought over the course of the agricultural season. South Africa, the region?s major grain supplier, has reported a sharp drop in maize plantings due to dry conditions and fear of drought.
II. Regional Contingency Planning - progress to date:
WFP has finalized its drought contingency planning document, the product of a complex planning exercise carried out in collaboration with regional institutions. While drafted as an internal document to serve as a basis for specific country plans, interested parties may consult it upon request. An executive summary is available to the public.
The WFP Global Task Force on El Nino, based in Rome, hosted a preparative working meeting on 4 December to discuss contingency planning with representatives from the European Union (DGVIII), USAID (FP/FEWS) and FAO (GIEWS). WFP and FAO have agreed to start providing regular analytical and action-oriented reports to donors.
The WFP Regional Office in Maputo has drafted terms of reference for a mid-term food needs assessment to be carried out in January, as recommended in the Contingency Planning Document. In-country teams involving government, donor, UN agency and NGO participants will undertake the assessments in order to provide timely information for an early appeal process, should it be warranted.
III. Country Reports:
Lesotho
Precipitation was below normal for all of November, with areas in the south most affected. Drought conditions have seriously restricted ploughing and crop planting in the lowlands, with overgrazing further wilting pasture. River flows are low, while a significant fall in underground water levels is causing bore holes to dry up. Water shortages or supply failures have been noted in some areas.
The Disaster Management Agency (DMA) has asked that need assessment surveys be carried out in urban and rural communities to determine and report sectoral drought-related problems, and to support local public awareness campaigns. It also ordered a review of emergency food aid instructions, forms and eligibility criteria for vulnerable households and malnourished children under 5 and the immediate resumption of growth-monitoring checks of under-5?s at health centres and clinics in the districts.
A draft of a National Drought Relief Plan has been widely circulated and was discussed at a workshop on 27 November, with the participation of government, the Lesotho Council of NGO?s, LRCS, WFP and UNICEF. The final Plan will be presented on 18 December, when DMA will also advise on the timing of an emergency declaration and any legislation needed in addition to the Disaster Management Act (1997).
The DMA-led Food and Logistics Group (including WFP) agreed that the Food Management Unit (FMU) will receive, handle and store, at its primary stores, all drought-related food aid; that the FMU will be responsible for its transport from primary stores to secondary stores (deeper in the districts); and, that DMA (Logistics) will be responsible for transport to the different delivery points. WFP is working with the government on additional requirements, including water sources for cooking, gardening and livestock, as well as training, tools, equipment, and repairs, which are needed now for drought-preparedness activities.
Madagascar
No change reported.
Malawi
National meteorologists have modified their predictions and now advise that less of the southern region will be affected by drought than earlier advised. The Ministry of Agriculture continues to publicize the need to plant early-maturing maize varieties and drought tolerant crops. Few farmers appear to have heeded advice to plant early.
The Government and donors have focussed attention on a safety net strategy for food security. WFP is emphasizing the role of safety nets in El Nino preparedness, and would probably be directly involved through two interventions: Food for Work and targeted distributions through Mother and Child Health clinics. WFP also continues its efforts in the planning and implementation of a national nutrition and household food security methodology.
Donors have been encouraging further liberalisation of the maize price band and more transparent management of the Strategic Grain Reserve. Admarc, the former grain marketing boards, have instituted a rationing system by which maize is sold. The government is readying contracts for the purchase of 33,000 tonnes of maize, of which 9,500 tonnes is likely to come from Zimbabwe through Newman and 23,500 is likely to be bought through Glencore from South Africa, Zimbabwe and Mozambique.
Mozambique
Early rains soaked most of the southern part of the country, while some districts in Gaza and Inhambane provinces, traditionally drought-prone, are reported to be in a vulnerable situation. A joint monitoring visit by WFP and the Department for the Prevention and Management of Natural Disasters (DPCCN) this week will investigate the food security and drinking water situation there.
WFP met with the Ministry of Commerce regarding the government?s proposal to create an operational food reserve of 100,000 tonnes to prepare for drought. The government is concerned that, while demand for rice and wheat will be handled smoothly by the private sector, the maize market may, as in the past, be neglected by traders. The Ministry would prepare to respond by establishing a fund to support imports for traders and by creating a physical reserve to back up eventual market maize stock ruptures. The Ministry clarified that all stocks in the country (private, WFP, pledges on 1998/1999 marketing year) will be considered as part of the 100,000-tonne operational physical reserve. In addition to wheat and rice donations to address the country structural deficit, the Ministry has three funds from the EU to respond to their needs: USD1.2 million in-country counterpart money, ECU 5 million for purchase of an emergency reserve and ECU 5.5 million foreign exchange facility. WFP will continue to meet with the Ministry every fortnight to monitor the situation and share information.
The Ministry of Commerce met with major traders on 5 December to discuss strategies for covering any potential maize market shortfalls. Traders made it clear that they will not import stocks in advance until they can be sure that a shortfall will materialize. At the same time, they emphasized that with trade liberalization, their access to market options allows them to bring in food stock with a significantly shorter lapse time (less than two months). They also pressed for relief from the high interest rate burden resulting from loans to cover foreign exchange withdrawals. Follow-up meetings will be held regularly, starting in January.
The Vice-Minister of Agriculture called a donors meeting to discuss the Multi-sector Plan of Action for Drought Mitigation. WFP has proposed that the Plan?s budget be revised once the mid-term food needs assessment mission is carried out in January.
Zambia
An El Nino Task Force meeting on 26 November focussed on information dissemination. WFP continues to provide information on El Nino and the food security situation to the Task Force and to the National Early Warning Unit. WFP has also informally shared its Contingency Planning Report locally with donors to serve as a basis for discussion. The government is optimistic about the maize supply, and has stated that the Food Reserve Agency along with the private sector will ensure availability.
Zimbabwe
Rainfall over most of the country brought significant improvement in the cumulative rainfall situation, and about a third of the country has received above normal rains so far this season. While both commercial and smallholder farmers are planting as normal, newspapers report that fewer small holder farmers are investing in fertilizers for fear their crops will fail because of drought.
As the government implements its controversial land acquisition programme (the designation of 1,500 farms for resettlement by landless peasants), commercial farmers are predicting decreased output of various products, including maize. In spite of the uncertainties for some farmers, the effect on the export availability of grain during the coming year is expected to be minimal. Maize prices on the commodities exchange have recovered from a slump following some large trades during the last week of November, but prices have not surpassed previous levels. Deals for white maize ranged from USD 210 to USD 235 per tonne, while yellow maize sold for 200 per tonne.
For further information, please contact
Ms Georgia Shaver Regional Manager for Southern Africa e-mail address: shaver@wfpcomoz.uem.mz
or Ms Andrea Stoutland WFP Maputo e-mail address: andrea@wfpcomoz.uem.mz.