Maputo, Mozambique24 December 1997
This is the sixth in a series of information updates provided on a fortnightly basis (with the exception of the next update, which will be distributed on January 14). Please note that the WFP Regional Office coverage is Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia and
Zimbabwe.
I. El Nino Overview:
Indicators related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue to show a very strong warm episode in the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to continue into the March or April 1988 and to cause drier-than-normal conditions in southern Africa. So far this season, though, overall rainfall levels in the region have been normal, and in some areas, crops are becoming sufficiently established to withstand the onset of drought, should it occur. It should be noted that rainfall has fallen in sporadic patterns, leaving some areas vulnerable. Although the more dire predictions of drought are being modified, it is still early in the ENSO cycle, and early in the region's agricultural season, to dismiss the possibility of drought. A second Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum was held in Windhoek, Namibia on December 18 and 19 as a mid-season update of the September forum in Kadoma, Zimbabwe. Representatives from eleven SADC countries attended, as well as other experts from national, regional and international institutions. While each national meteorological institute will interpret how the regional outlook affects its territory, the general outlook is for below-normal rainfall conditions in southern Zambia, Lesotho and much of South Africa. Most weather models presented showed continued risk of below-normal rainfall extending into Swaziland, southern Mozambique, southern Malawi and Zimbabwe.
El Nino received attention at the UN conference on global warming in Kyoto as an example of how even relatively localized temperature increases have dramatic effects on world weather. There is some speculation that the increased frequency of El Nino events is related to global warming, although no scientific link has been established between the two.
II. Regional Contingency Planning - progress to date:
The WFP Regional Office has circulated terms of reference for the joint mid-season assessment (of food prospects and local response capacity) recommended in its Drought Contingency Planning report. The terms of reference will serve as a guideline for individual country offices to organize assessments at country level in conjunction with FAO, government, donor agencies and/or NGO's. The purposes of the mid-season assessment are: to assess the condition of food crop and livestock supplies; to assess main concerns in food availability (household and market); to assess the nutritional status of the population in vulnerable areas, as well as coping abilities; to observe market conditions and price functions including whether hoarding is a problem; and to determine priority concerns and possible response mechanisms. The assessment will make full use of any data available from Vulnerability Analysis groups, as well as information such as crop and price monitoring reports prepared by Ministries of Agriculture, district-level information on locations and levels of food insecurity, and other government, UN agency, donor and NGO information and concerns. The assessment will take place in late January, with exact dates to vary by country. In order to be useful, all results must be available by mid-February. The traditional WFP-FAO late-season assessment mission is expected to take place as usual, though at a slightly earlier date in April. At that time, information on such issues as final crop production figures, and the consequences of a possible drought (including number of beneficiaries needing assistance and tonnage of food aid required) will be compiled.
III. Country Reports:
No updated information was available from Lesotho or Madagascar. No change reported in Zambia.
Malawi
Rainfall has been normal to above normal in most of the country, including areas affected by drought last year. The maize market has been supported by an influx from the Strategic Grain Reserve in an effort to maintain current maize prices, resulting in abnormally low grain reserve levels. There is strong pressure on the former grain marketing board Admarc to avoid raising the price of maize about the current USD 00.22 per kilo, a price which now limits the commercial sector's interest in importing maize for onward sale to consumers. The government has accepted donor observers (EU and USAID) at meetings of the newly-formed Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) Working Group. There has recently been greater donor support for government strategy as SGR management policies have become more transparent. Government strategy involves guaranteeing a "safety net" through targeted food distribution in schools and Mother and Child Health clinics, along with Food for Work projects.
Mozambique
The Country Office held a preparatory meeting for the mid-season assessment of food prospects and local response capacity [see above] with representatives of government, FAO, EU, World Vision, MSF (Doctors Without Borders), CCM (Christian Council of Mozambique) and LWF (Lutheran World Federation). Dates were set for proposing, evaluating and choosing areas to be visited. The meeting participants drafted a checklist of indicators to be included in the assessment, which will be reviewed at a follow-up meeting on December 23. The detailed food security prognoses prepared by MSF will be considered by the assessment team, while extension staff of World Vision and Lutheran World Federation will participate in data collection. Other organisations possibly interested in the assessment have been invited to the follow-up meeting. A general preparatory meeting will be convened in mid-January and the assessment will commence at the latest on January 26.
The DPCCN (the coordinating body for disaster prevention and management) held a meeting on December 19 to discuss drought preparedness. It reported that the south and center of Mozambique have received above normal rainfall so far this year, while the more productive (and later-planting) northern areas have had slightly below-normal rainfall. The Agricultural Ministry is anticipating near normal production in the south; while the south does not traditionally produce much surplus, good harvests will at least guarantee household-level security in the area. WFP presented the plans for a mid-season assessment of food prospects and local response capacity, which has been widely welcomed as a concrete step for monitoring and preparing for a possible drought.
WFP held a second meeting with the Minister of Commerce, who expressed interest in having Ministry representatives participate in the January assessment of food prospects as described above. The Minister confirmed that as a result of its meeting with grain traders, the Government will work to provide them with easier access to foreign exchange and alleviation of the interest rates paid on the counter value of local currency.
Zimbabwe
Donors and NGOs in Zimbabwe have increased their activities and coordination related to El Nino. The UNDP, as coordinator of donor activity in the area of drought relief, has initiated production of a Drought Update which includes information on meteorological conditions, government drought readiness, NGO activities, donor policy and other relevant issues. FEWS in Harare also provides country and regional reports. SADC's El Nino Monitoring Committee holds monthly meetings open to all organisations interested in following regional drought issues.
CIDA (Canadian International Development Agency) and Christian Aid both organized meetings for NGO's in the region, the former to discuss drought mitigation measures and the latter to look at the potential impact of El Nino in Zimbabwe. The Save the Children Fund has been involved in local-level risk map development, while Care International has been monitoring local maize markets and prices, and has met with local authorities to discuss drought mitigation strategies. World Vision has established a Drought Monitoring Committee, distributed drought-resistant seed varieties and cassava, and introduced irrigation schemes in some vulnerable areas.
The December 19 report from Zimace (Zimbabwe Agricultural Commodity Exchange) indicates that there does not appear to be any shortage of maize on the market, with prices remaining firm. This is in contrast to news from the other major grain trading country in the region, South Africa, where prices shot up in December due to low rainfall in the most fertile "maize triangle" and a reduction in maize planting in other areas due to fear of drought.