14 January 1998
This is the seventh in a series of information updates provided on a fortnightly basis. Please note that the WFP Regional Office coverage is Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Information received from Swaziland has also been included in this report. [Last update forwarded as a supplement to the WFP Emergency Report was with the Report of 12 December 1997]
I. El Nino Overview:
Meteorology experts continue to give a similar picture of El Nino as a very strong warm episode expected to wane only three to six months from now. Its expected effects on southern Africa - severe and widespread drought - have not materialized, however, and recent rains in the region, unusual for El Nino seasons, have created a cautious optimism. The WFP regional office for southern Africa continues to be on alert, due to the experience of past El Nino years.
The mid-season assessments to be conducted this month (described below) are intended to provide data which will make it possible to judge whether a drought will occur and whether any subsequent emergency food operations will be necessary.
II. Regional Contingency Planning - progress to date:
Joint government-WFP-FAO mid-season assessments of food prospects and local response capacity are to be conducted by early February in most countries covered by this report, with the participation of donors and NGOs. Each Country Office has tailored its assessment to the local situation; details are given under Country Reports.
The SADC ENSO Task Force met on January 12 to review current ENSO data and rainfall season progression and to look at assessments planned for the next three months. Participants at the meeting included several regional organizations, UN agencies, donors and international NGOs. WFP presented plans for the mid-season assessments, including terms of reference and checklist indicators. UNICEF expressed interest in participating in assessments where water and sanitation issues are covered. The Task Force has made much of its information available on internet at: <www.zimbabwe.net/sadc_fanr/intro.htm>. The next Task Force meeting is scheduled for February 12.
SADC will sponsor a meeting of the Regional Drought Task Force on January 19 in Harare, followed by a meeting of the region's Ministers of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources on January 20. UN agencies and donors have been invited as observers to the meeting, which is a follow up to both the Gaborone drought policy seminar held in November and the Windhoek climate outlook forum held in December. The Task Force, composed of heads of the Disaster Management Unit of each country in the region, will examine issues of cereal stocks, expected outputs under several scenarios, potential food import, water, health and transport needs. It will then prepare a set of recommendations to be considered by the Ministers at their meeting the following day.
The Executive Summary from the Regional Drought Policy Seminar held in Gaborone in November has been distributed to participants. It includes a table of short-term Action Plans, primary actors, proposed time-frame and principles that should underlie both their design and implementation.
A representative from FAO's headquarters of its global information and early warning system (GIEWS) visited the region this week to review the crop and food supply situation and to discuss plans for improvements in the flow of information to GIEWS. WFP Maputo presented its regional contingency planning and information dissemination activities and discussed the mid-season food needs assessments.
III. Country Reports:
Lesotho
Drought conditions with low rainfall and high temperatures intensified during December, but rains late in the month and in early January have alleviated conditions somewhat. The Disaster Management Authority (DMA) with the Bureau of Statistics undertook a rapid crop assessment survey. Its January 5 report stated that about 70% of the planted acreage in the mountain areas had germinated, while in the foothill and lowland areas, low planted acreage and poor germination due to dry conditions have been significant. The DMA estimates crop production prospects to be as low as 40% of normal, but reports that districts have not yet carried out need assessment surveys in urban and rural communities in order to report sectoral drought-related problems as requested. A National Drought Relief Plan and its required resources will be presented to the DMA's Board of Directors on January 15.
The mid-season assessment of food supply and local response capacity in Lesotho (conducted jointly by government agencies, WFP, FAO and NGOs) will cover an especially broad range of indicators. It will take into account government studies of nutrition, prices and household needs, a UNDP Urban Poverty study, a Household Budget Survey, a labour force survey by the ILO and nutrition information from a UNICEF-commissioned study. Assessment teams are currently visiting districts to obtain data at the household and village levels on food availability and coping strategies, as well as various livestock issues. Results of the exercise will be available by mid-February.
Madagascar
The mid-season assessment in Madagascar is scheduled for early February, with the participation of WFP, FAO, government, USAID and Care International. The locust infestation has spread and will be a major focus of concern for 1998. WFP implemented an emergency food distribution operation to cover the hardest-hit southern region during the last six weeks of 1997.
Malawi
Heavy rains in central and northern regions of the country have resulted in flooding and calls by NGOs for donor assistance, although the Government did not make a direct request for aid and the situation seems to be under control. In the south, which is more prone to drought, there has been no indication of drought conditions.
The demand for maize has outpaced the supply, with prices increasing quickly; local newspapers regularly run articles featuring the lack of maize in urban areas. The commercial sector is reluctant to import maize following the recent devaluation of the currency by twenty-one percent. The Government has stated that commercial imports of approximately 32,500 tonnes of maize have started to arrive from Zimbabwe, and the Strategic Grain Reserve is expected to have reserves of 22,000 tonnes of maize when current draw-downs have been effected.
The Government will conduct a crop estimate exercise at the end of January. The mid-season assessment will build on that data and will be carried out in early February, given that Malawi's agricultural season is later than in the rest of the region. A tentative list of participants includes WFP, FAO, government agencies, USAID, EU, and the NGOs Action Aid and Caritas.
Mozambique
Further preparatory meetings for the mid-season assessment of food prospects and local response capacity were held at WFP on January 8, 9 and 12. Participants in the travelling teams include representatives of government agencies, FEWS, WFP, FAO, UNICEF, USAID, EU and MSF-CIS. One team will cover the southern three provinces and another team the central provinces. (The northern area will not be included in this early assessment as it is less vulnerable to drought and its growing season is a full month behind the rest of the country.) The terms of reference and checklist for the mission have been revised and expanded in order to include water and sanitation issues of particular interest to UNICEF, which will participate in the assessment of the southern region. The list of geographical districts to be covered by the teams was modified in response to a Government proposal, and the itineraries for the two teams have been finalized. They will depart from Maputo on January 26 and will complete their field work on February 6.
The Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Fishing in Sofala, in a regular coordination meeting with WFP and NGOs in Beira, reported that the overall agricultural situation in the province is good. An in-country expert estimated unofficially that even if rains were to cease in mid-January, a worst case scenario for Mozambique would involve a maximum 30% reduction of yields, requiring only a small-scale emergency operation.
Swaziland
The National Meteorological Service has reported above average rainfall in the country to date. However, information from meteorological stations in the country is not forwarded to the national service on a regular basis and so the national estimates may hide local weather phenomena.
A crop assessment was conducted the week of January 5 based on estimates done by NGOs, regional secretaries and the field visits of a team composed of the National Early Warning Unit, Meteorological Services, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, and UNDP. The conclusions, in brief are:
Manzini region: Farmers have planted early and crops are almost ready for harvesting. A hailstorm on 25 December damaged some crops but the extent of the damage has not yet been quantified. Hhohho region: Although the region has received plenty of rain, the maize situation is not satisfactory, due to poor crop management and late planting. Shiselweni region: Most farmers have planted early and are benefiting from the early and plentiful rains. Other farmers have not planted at all as a response to the drought predictions. Poor crop management is a problem. Lubombo region: Both maize and cotton is doing well and most farmers have planted early. Some farmers have not planted at all as a response to the drought predictions.
There is still a significant risk that maize would be damaged should Swaziland receive below normal rainfall in the period January to March 1998. Maize (rather than more drought-resistant crops) is still the main crop in all regions. The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives has requested WFP assistance in conducting a late season assessment of the condition of food crop and livestock supplies, nutritional status, coping abilities and possible response mechanisms.
Zambia
Rainfall in northern Zambia during December remained normal to above normal, while the south had below-normal rainfall and slightly above-normal temperatures. Indications are that in the south farmers have delayed planting because of uneven rainfall. An additional 100,000 copies of the government's El Nino information brochure were distributed in December.
The mid-season food needs assessment will begin on January 15 with the participation of WFP, government agencies, FEWS/USAID, CARE, World Vision and Africare. WFP met with NGOs on January 11 to plan their participation in the field.
The Drought Technical Committee met on January 7 to review the relief requirement estimates made by the Programme Against Malnutrition and WFP-sponsored vulnerability assessments. The same Office has organized a workshop for parliamentarians on disaster preparedness and mitigation; WFP will participate as a resource base. WFP held a donors' meeting on January 8 to discuss the vulnerability assessments, contingency planning for El Nino and drought relief activities planned by the Vice President's office.
In a meeting with the Ministry of Agriculture, private traders expressed doubts about importing maize because an anticipated government consignment of U.S. maize would undersell the traders' maize from South Africa. The Food Reserve Agency met with WFP and USAID on December 31 and indicated that the government consignment might not go through; if it does go through, Zambia will still have an approximate 177,000 metric tonne deficit.
Zimbabwe
Rainfall in northern Zimbabwe was above normal, while in most other areas it was close to normal. The Ministry of Agriculture is currently conducting its own mid-season crop assessment, the results of which are expected by the end of the month.
Farmers have reduced maize plantings by about 18% due to fear of drought, while traders report that many small farmers have stopped selling in order to retain personal stocks. Newspapers report that the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) is buying maize from local farmers at a low price in order to create a reserve. This week, however, the GMB has recommended the release of the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR), which now stands at 450,000 metric tonnes (mt). The price, to be announced, is expected to force the local market price down and to encourage the selling of maize being held in reserve. The agricultural commodity exchange ZIMACE believes it is premature for the SGR to be released, but the GMB has made forward contracts with suppliers in South Africa to cover eventual shortages. Prices in the region are less volatile, and have come down since their peak in December (RSA white USD 219 FOB Durban; USD 198 FCA Eastern Transvaal or Free State bagged; Zimbabwe USD 235 FCA Harare bagged; Mozambique USD 235 FCA bagged).
=========== Andrea Stoutland Regional El Nino Information Officer WFP Maputo office
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