Information Update from WFP Regional Office for Southern Africa No. 8
Maputo, Mozambique28 January 1998
This is the eighth in a series of information updates provided on a regular basis. It is based on reports received from WFP offices in countries covered by the Regional Office: Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Any queries may be addressed to the WFP Country Offices or to the Regional Office in Maputo.
I. El Nino Overview:
As rains continued to fall over most of the region, the probability of widespread drought is increasingly remote. Local meteorological conditions, including the position of anticyclones in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, warmer than normal seas surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and low pressure zones situated further south over the continent than usual, have provided plentiful rains in most areas so far this season. In fact, floods in low-lying areas have been reported, and cyclone-level winds and rain caused damage to coastal areas. While more systematic information on food prospects and local conditions will be available when the results of the mid-season assessments are in (see Information Update dated 24 December 1997), it appears that El Nino will not have the widespread, severe effects on southern Africa which were originally anticipated.
II. Regional Contingency Planning - progress to date:
The SADC Regional Drought Task Force held a meeting on January 19 in Harare, during which participants reviewed seasonal conditions and the climatic outlook; regional cereal availability for the 1998/9 agricultural season; water, health and transport needs, and regional co-ordination. The aim was to present a report and recommendations to the Ministers of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources who met the following day. The recommendations included considering drought planning as part of the overall macro-economic planning of member states; developing a long-term strategy on drought, given that it is a recurring and not a temporary problem; enacting legislation to require release of information on stock levels and transparency in grain pricing and marketing; and liberalizing regional trade.
SADC's preliminary maize availability estimates for eleven countries in the region (updated on January 14 for the Ministers' meeting) are of 18.99 million metric tonnes (mt), against an estimated total requirement of 19.52 million mt. (This availability estimate assumes a 10% drop from the ten-year average production rate; countries included in the estimate are Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Republic of South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.)
An international seminar on "Action Planning in Response to Seasonal Climate Forecast for Mozambique" will be held in Maputo on February 18 and 19, sponsored by the Ministry of the Environment in collaboration with the Meteorological Institute and Columbia University (New York). While the conference will interpret information circulated at the Windhoek Climate Outlook Forum in December, it will also provide the opportunity for discussion between providers and users of climate information.
III. Country Reports:
Lesotho
The rainfall pattern for January has been regular so far, with occasional hail storms in some districts. The Disaster Management Agency (DMA) coordinated a District Crop Monitoring Exercise with the National Early Warning Unit and the Bureau of Statistics, with assistance from the district agricultural services; field work for it was recently completed and the report is being prepared. A WFP survey at the household and village levels will be finished by January 30. The DMA and WFP coordinated their efforts for the field work of the projects, visiting many of the same areas and villages.
The Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment 1997/98 - Current Food Security Analysis, a document prepared in December 1998 by the National Early Warning Unit (NEWU), DMA, SADC-REWU/Harare and USAID-FEWS/Southern Africa, has been completed and will soon be released officially.
The DMA estimates, as a worst-case scenario, a 20-25% reduction in the current crop year's production; its most optimistic estimate is of a 10% reduction. Figures will be updated as information becomes available. The DMA is preparing a Drought Relief Plan compiling proposals from several Ministries; it will need to be approved by the Cabinet as a working document in order for the government to determine priorities and propose funding before the Parliament dissolves in preparation for the April elections.
Malawi
Heavy rainfall continued in the central and northern regions, where cumulative rainfall is well above average, while rainfall in the south is slightly above normal. Flooding continues to affect some districts, and the President has asked the NGO community and private industry to help communities. Agencies will monitor areas affected by heavy rains and will scale up involvement should the situation warrant it.
The 'safety net strategy' developed by the government with technical support from WFP will target areas identified by the Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping exercise for a project to cover four months (February to May) using maize and a local weaning food (Likuni Phala). The strategy has been under discussion for several months as a preparedness measure for El Nino. The mid-season assessment teams (with government, WFP, FAO and donor participation) will go to the field during the first week of February. Their conclusions will be used for several purposes, including verification of assumptions made in the design of the safety net project.
The price of maize on the open market has increased by more than 20% in the last four weeks. Strategic Grain Reserve drawdowns are being used to stock Admarc (the restructured grain marketing board) selling points which make commercial sales at subsidized prices; Admarc stocks are being sold faster than its ability to replenish them. With the currency continuing to undergo incremental devaluations, the commercial sector is still hesitant to import maize for onward sale.
Madagascar
Precipitation overall has been good, with isolated patches of low rainfall in the north; the country has been spared cyclones so far this season. The locust problem continues, and a WFP emergency food operation (Food for Work for development projects in the hard-hit south) will continue until mid-February.
At a meeting to plan the mid-season assessment, attended by WFP, UNICEF, USAID, EU, Care and MSF, it was decided to focus visits on the more vulnerable southern areas of the country. Preliminary field visits will be carried out by organizations' representatives already working in the targeted regions, while a follow-up visit will be conducted by the interagency group in mid-February. In order to assure coverage of areas not studied by the Early Warning Unit (which concentrates on the south), USAID has provided satellite image analysis of the country as a whole.
Mozambique
Cyclone conditions caused by a tropical depression in the Mozambique Channel brought heavy rains and winds to the country, affecting the northern and coastal provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala and Inhambane. Districts in the inland provinces of Tete and Manica have also suffered the effects of heavy rains. A landslide attributed to heavy rains in a district of Zambezia (bordering southern Malawi) killed over 70 people, while the rain and wind have brought down power lines, washed out roads and destroyed houses in numerous districts. The UN Disaster Management Team is scheduled to meet on January 29 to review the situation and determine possible UN response to the floods. In addition, SADC has reported evidence of migratory pests (locusts).
The government took official charge of the mid-season assessment of food prospects and local response capacity. While the team lists were revised during the days prior to their January 26 departure for the field, the institutions remain the same: Government (Ministries of Agriculture, Health and Commerce), WFP, FAO, EU, USAID, UNICEF and MSF-CIS. Several other NGOs will be collaborating in the field. All member organizations of the Inter-sectoral Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping Group have participated in the planning and implementation of the mission; the check-list of indicators includes such issues as coping ability, survival mechanisms, identification and screening of beneficiaries, and methods for continued needs assessment, monitoring and reporting (in addition to indicators on agricultural, market, food reserve, water and sanitation conditions). A draft of the 1997 Vulnerability Assessment for Mozambique is being circulated for comments and will be finalized in February.
Zambia
National rainfall figures are normal in most of the country, with the exception of some areas in the south, which have also registered higher than average temperatures.
Assessment exercises led by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries (which is also the head of the Vulnerability Assessment steering committee) are currently underway with the participation of seven teams, including representatives of the Meteorology Department, FHANIS (Household Food Security, Health and Nutrition Information System, which FAO sponsors) and NGOs. Districts to be visited were chosen on the basis of the 1997 Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping exercise. The final assessment report, to be prepared by February 13, will cover rainfall distribution, crops and livestock conditions, on-going relief operations, markets, grain reserve situation and coping abilities.
Zimbabwe
Cumulative rainfall levels for the season are close to normal, although the rains started late and many farmers delayed planting. According to the FEWS January report on Zimbabwe food security, the area under cultivation has been reduced by 50 to 60%. WFP is participating in a FEWS review of conditions in southern Zimbabwe, which began on January 26 and is to finish on January 30. AGRITEX and the National Early Warning Unit will go into the field starting in February to do crop production forecasts.
Further information from Zimbabwe was unavailable due to the problems in Harare, including office closings.
Andrea Stoutland Regional El Nino Information Officer WFP Maputo office