Information Update from WFP Regional Office for Southern Africa, no. 9
Maputo, Mozambique
12 February 1998
This is the ninth in a series of information updates provided on a regular basis. It is based on reports received from WFP offices in countries covered by the Regional Office: Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Any queries may be addressed to the WFP Country Offices or to the WFP Regional Office in Maputo. Information received from Swaziland is also included in this report.
I. El Nino Overview:
El Nino continues to be in the news worldwide, blamed for flash floods in California and widespread severe flooding in eastern Africa. Technically, the El Nino phenomenon is still active. There has not been an appreciable decline in the Pacific Ocean temperature off the coast of Peru, although the warm pool is smaller. The Southern Oscillation Index, a commonly-used indicator of El Nino's impact on world weather patterns, was further from normal in January than in December.
The impact of El Nino on the region covered by this report, however, has not been significant, and the widespread drought expected due to the experience of past El Nino years has not occurred. Instead, it is floods that are responsible for current relief efforts, although these are on a much smaller scale than in countries further north, and in fact than in southern Africa during the same period last year.
Satellite-derived images of vegetation indicate that there are virtually no areas of drought in the region, a picture supported by the results of the mid-season assessments conducted in the field in each country. The satellite images are in stark contrast to those from the same months of the 1991-2 El Nino-related drought season, when drought had already seriously affected vegetation throughout the region. It is now far enough into the season to presume that even were a hot and dry spell to occur (which is unlikely), the impact would not be as severe as 1991/2 and 1994/5.
II. Regional Contingency Planning - progress to date:
The countries in the region are all engaged in some stage of a mid-season assessment of food prospects and local response capacity. Where results are available, they are included below under Country Reports. Further country information, as well as a regional summary, will be available following a meeting of WFP Country Directors from the region in Johannesburg on February 23-24. One observation that has emerged in several countries is the fact that some farmers who did respond to drought warnings by planting in low-lying areas have lost crops to high water levels; other farmers did not plant at all for fear of drought and consequently production levels will suffer in spite of favorable weather.
III. Country Reports:
Lesotho
Official rainfall data for January is not yet available; previous rainfall was erratic and led to late planting. The National Early Warning Unit, in its quarterly Food Security Bulletin issued on January 29, states that crop production prospects in mountain districts have fallen to about 40% of normal. The Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment 1997/98 has now been distributed among Government officials, UN agencies, donor representatives and NGOs for comment; reports are still pending for the field assessments by the Disaster Management Agency and WFP (see January 28 Information Update).
Madagascar
During a meeting to discuss the mid-season assessments (outlined in the January 28 Information Update), the European Union provided provisional scenarios for food assistance needs deriving from the extensive locust infestation. Reported estimates are that 1,000 metric tonnes of maize might be required beginning in March and a further 10,000 metric tonnes in September. UNDP mentioned donor interest in financing activities to support the collection and dissemination of climate data.
Malawi
The midseason assessment is being carried out with the full participation of the Ministries of Agriculture and Finance, as well as WFP, FAO, FEWS and several NGOs. The field trips are completed and the report is being drafted. Preliminary estimates are that crop production will be 19% above last year's (i.e. 1,800,000 metric tonnes), which is also the government's latest estimate, while agricultural products including mandioca, sweet potatoes, banana and tobacco are likely to show an increase of about 13%.
Mozambique
Floods continue to affect several provinces, and WFP's attention has turned to assessing the situation of people and infrastructure in those areas in order to provide needed food assistance, in part through joint missions to affected regions with the Department of Disaster Prevention (DPCCN). The teams participating in the government-led mid-season assessment of food prospects and local response capacity have, along with WFP sub-offices and outposts, provided detailed information from the field.
The current situation is not serious enough to warrant a new WFP emergency operation, as ongoing relief efforts in the affected provinces of Sofala, Tete and Zambezia have enough resources to cover problems there. Existing resources were channelled into free food distribution to 2,300 people along the Buzi River in Sofala also affected by last year's floods. In Niassa Province, several bridges have washed out, isolating communities. In Manica Province, there is some flooding along the Zambeze River to the north, but crops and pasture lands in the province are generally in good shape. In Gaza, Inhambane and Maputo Provinces, there are no major problems due to either drought or floods.
The effects of the landslide in Milange, Zambezia (reported in the January 28 Information Update) will be re-assessed by a joint DPCCN/Social Action Ministry/WFP mission this week, given that the situation appears much less serious than originally reported. No accommodation center was deemed necessary and the food situation appears satisfactory.
WFP has stressed that its aim is to move away from providing free food for consecutive years of disasters, and toward Food for Work projects in support of disaster mitigation and improved access to affected areas. It is working closely with the DPCCN on strengthening disaster management structures. WFP has encouraged the re-activation of the Seeds Working Group and timely preparation of seeds projects.
Swaziland
The overall crop and livestock condition in the country is good; January rains helped them to recover from below-normal rainfall in December. According to a government Food Security Bulletin released on January 26, maize planting country-wide is about 90% complete, an improvement over former years attributed to farmers' response to calls for early planting.
At a meeting held at the National Disaster Task Force on February 4, reports from some of the traditional drought-stricken areas indicated that crops are more advanced than in previous years due to early planting and the choice of fast-maturing and drought-tolerant crops. In other traditionally advantaged areas, the crop stage and condition is relatively poor, so monitoring of the situation will continue. Representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and UNDP Swaziland will go on an assessment mission next week. At this stage, the anticipated food security situation for the next marketing year has now improved, and carry-over stocks of maize will more than cover demand.
Zambia
The mid-term assessment exercises conducted jointly by Government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries and the Meteorological Department), WFP, FAO/FHANIS, FEWS/USAID, Africare and CARE reported that the maize yield is likely to be reduced in all districts due to erratic rainfall distribution (especially during the November-December planting season) and a lack of hybrid seeds and other inputs. In addition, the area planted to maize is less than last year. Livestock is doing well, with very few disease outbreaks and deaths reported; adequate pasture is available. The mission noted bartering of live animals for maize in most parts of the Valley districts, an indication of low household grain reserves. A full report is being prepared.
Heavy rainfall in January caused floods and crop loss, although in February rains subsided generally. WFP Zambia has requested funds to feed 4,200 people affected by floods in Luapula province. Assistance in the form of a cornmeal supplement for vulnerable families would last for 45 days to bridge a food-gap period prior to the commencement of the fishing season in March. Assessments of flood damage in other provinces are also being conducted.
Zimbabwe
A rapid assessment undertaken by WFP and FEWS during the last week of January confirmed that there will be a significant decrease in crop area planted in the country, in part because late arrival of rains meant that many farmers planted late, while other farmers did not plant at all, reportedly heeding warnings that an El Nino-associated drought would occur. The overall reduction in area planted is estimated at 25-30%. By January 30, the southern part of the country (a traditional grain deficit area) had received below normal rainfall; in other areas, a wet spell has resulted in a recovery of the maize crop. The veld and pasture lands are in good condition, and water supplies for both human and animal consumption are quite adequate. The assessment noted that intra-rural grain trade is becoming more common and that maize prices were significantly higher in drier areas.
A more extensive official Zimbabwe Crop Assessment will be carried out from February 9-21. The team will include representatives from the National Early Warning Unit, AGRITEX (Ministry of Agriculture Technical and Extension Services), Ministry of Health National Nutrition Office, Zimbabwe Farmers Union, SADC Regional Early Warning Unit, WFP and FEWS/Zimbabwe. For the first time on an official assessment, information on livestock condition and fruit and vegetable production will be included along with the standard information on crop yields.
Following food riots in late January, which temporarily interrupted maize trading, the state-owned Grain Marketing Board (GMB) was instructed to reduce the price of maize by about 14%. The GMB released part of the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) onto the market, and there is some speculation that it could run short on grain, pushing up prices again. The price of (white) maize traded on the commodities exchange ZIMACE is down to about $153 (from about $167 in early January).
South Africa: A January 28 Reuters report stated that "South African food company shares have [soared] as fears recede of an El Nino drought that could have slashed harvest in half." The same article cited the South African Weather Bureau reporting that El Nino was expected to start waning from February and thus would not impact on next season's harvests.
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