3 April 1998This Update is based on reports received from WFP offices in countries covered by the Regional Office (Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe) as well as Swaziland. Any queries may be addressed to the WFP Country Offices or to the WFP Regional Office in Maputo. WFP is grateful for information provided by UNDP Swaziland, SADC, FEWS, and Catholic Relief Services.
There is very little threat of a weather-related crisis seriously affecting food availability in the countries covered by this report. There are some problems due to the effects of isolated flooding and migratory pests as detailed below.
Seasonal Climate Forecast Conference: According to meteorologists gathered at a conference on Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Mozambique, held in Maputo on February 17-18, theories to explain why this year's El Nino event has NOT had a significant impact on the southern Africa region take into account factors such as trade wind patterns, the formation of patches of warm and cool temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and an apparently cyclical oscillation of temperatures between the north and south hemispheres. Participants in the conference noted that meteorological outlooks are readily misinterpreted or exaggerated (low rainfall is often prematurely called drought), and there is a high degree of uncertainty involved in forecasting localized conditions. It was recommended that the public dissemination of climate forecasts be supplemented by precise and professional recommendations on the appropriate agricultural practices. Participants also stressed the importance of national meteorology institutes for offering field data and of monitoring for outbreaks of pests and disease through the end of any anomalous season.
Country Reports:
Lesotho
According to the Disaster Management Authority (DMA), while the dry and erratic rainfall conditions prevailing in the country since September 1997 were terminated by soft soaking rains throughout February and into March, cereal production is still expected to be lower than usual, and late-planted cereals are likely to be affected by low temperatures. The DMA also reports that districts in the southwest and east are likely to face severe food stresses; hospital records there show high rates of malnutrition admissions. Rainfall patterns have contributed to difficulties in dipping against sheep scab with consequent outbreaks requiring injectable acaricides.
The Government has not launched an appeal for assistance nor has it declared an emergency situation, but the National Drought Relief Plan and the Drought Relief Programme have been approved by Cabinet as working documents as tools of disaster mitigation, preparedness and response. The Disaster Management Authority has indicated that the Government will carry out an end-of-season assessment and that it will not be necessary to field a mission from the outside to evaluate the food supply. The DMA may send individual requests for assistance to the donor community.
Madagascar
The locust infestation continues to ravage crops and has spread to the grain-producing mid-western zones. A Crisis Committee, headed by a high-level Army officer, was formed in February and soldiers have been mobilized for a pesticide-spray campaign. Donors have made funds available for pesticide purchase, but the spray campaign has been limited by a lack of pesticide availability in country. The nationwide referendum to revise the Constitution, held in early March, has absorbed the attention of many involved in government. The good news is that no cyclones have hit the island this season.
The USAID Disaster Unit fielded a mission during the last week of March to evaluate damages in the mid-west. Its report states, "There are reasons to believe that the Malagasy locusts are evolving and reproducing at speeds never before recorded in laboratories and field efforts around the world." FAO and GTZ were to debrief donors and agencies on their field visits at a WFP-sponsored meeting on April 2. A mission will be fielded by in-country experts in mid-April, and it is expected that a FAO/WFP official mission will be requested for mid- to late May.
The WFP Emergency Operation to populations affected by locusts in southern regions ended officially on March 15, with stocks exhausted on March 20. A proposal to continue the emergency assistance will be made after the FAO/WFP mission evaluation. Ongoing food for work projects continue in those areas.
Malawi
Rainfall has been above normal, and while floods did not cause widespread damage, areas affected are being replanted with seed assistance from the European Union. The food production conditions in the country have been good compared to the average, with chronic food problems existing in the usual areas. Some production increases have been attributed to early planting, the use of improved seeds and diversification of crops. The Government has not requested a WFP/FAO assessment mission, as results from the first crop estimates indicate a 22% increase in cereal production. Maize harvesting has begun in the south, and is partially responsible for a 26% decrease in the retail price of national maize during the last four weeks.
The Government continues to import maize for the commercial market at an elevated price, which is arriving only after demand peaked in January and mid-February. While the Strategic Grain Reserve has been fully utilized, restocking is unlikely to receive widespread donor support due to concerns about expected changes in management policy which remain unimplemented.
WFP confronts ongoing food access problems in specific areas through food for work and support of the governments' safety net programme covering vulnerable populations during the lean season. Food distribution for that programme (which has been funded by the UK DFID (Sterling 993,000) and has received firm commitments from the EU) is through Mother and Child Health clinics. WFP is also currently involved in monitoring of nutrition and food security in vulnerable areas of the country which may identify additional areas for expansion of the targeted safety net programme .
Mozambique
The climate and crop situation is normal to good. Flood-affected areas are along the main rivers and their tributaries, but waters have receded and the overall effect on food supply has not been significant. Drought-prone areas continue to benefit from better-than-average rains. Harvesting has begun as far north as southern Tete and according to NGOs working in that province, nutritional indicators have improved as a result.
Several missions to confirm the extent of damage from the January landslide in Milange, Zambezia Province (see January 28 and February 12 Information Updates) confirmed 293 houses destroyed. Beneficiary numbers were calculated at 1,500, and a small emergency intervention of two months of food assistance will be provided, as well as Food for Work disaster mitigation projects to prevent the recurrence of a similar disaster in the future.
A mission to evaluate results of this year's agricultural season will be fielded by government, FAO and WFP (with NGO and donor participation) from April 27 to May 11. Meetings are underway to determine terms of reference, indicators and districts to be covered.
Swaziland
A hailstorm in early March damaged crops, schools and homes and the affected area was declared a disaster zone. At a March 24 meeting of the National Disaster Task Force it was recommended to the Government of Swaziland that, in the short term, the Red Cross provide homeless families with shelter and that it identify the most vulnerable individuals who will receive food, while relevant ministries give immediate attention to damaged schools. It was also recommended that in the medium term a WFP/FAO assessment be done of crops damages and subsequent need for food aid and that criteria be established for targeting assistance, while in the long term a disaster management act, policy and plan be enacted. The Task Force also stressed that future disaster impact assessment missions should be conducted in common in order to consolidate information and avoid that expectations be raised in the affected communities.
Zambia
With the exception of flood-affected areas of Northern and Luapula Provinces, crops are in normal condition. In Luapula Province, where an estimated 10,000 families are reported to have been affected by floods, even the local staple (cassava) crop has been damaged and residents are appealing for food aid. A two-week dry spell stressed some late-planted crops in other districts. The government has arranged to deliver 30 metric tonnes of food aid by air lift to Luano Valley in Central Province, an area suffering from chronic food shortages. WFP has contributed food and hand-tools for 22,700 flood victims in projects designed to last six weeks to two months; assistance is channeled through the Office of the Vice President and NGOs. (An unofficial request was made for extension of that operation.) In addition, existing WFP supplementary feeding programmes benefit 17,500 in flooded areas.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries in conjunction with the Central Statistical Office has begun a crop forecasting exercise (funded by USAID) whose results are expected for mid-April. The Office of the Vice President instructed all Members of Parliament to conduct food needs assessments in their constituencies, Parliament adjourned to facilitate MP's visits, and the results are expected mid-April. A WFP/FAO assessment with NGO participation is expected to evaluate the crop production and food supply situation by late April.
Zimbabwe
Of the countries covered by this report, Zimbabwe is the country whose agricultural output is most affected by weather conditions this year. A large loss in output is also attributed to farmers' decisions including lower acreage planted and low investment in inputs. Current estimates are that while the country may just break even on its grain needs for consumption (Zimbabwe is normally a grain-exporting country), it would probably need to import for the Strategic Grain Reserve IF a large physical stock were to be maintained. (At one time a 936,000 metric tonne SGR was maintained, half in cash and half in stock). The issue of whether and how much physical stock to maintain is under discussion; the Grain Marketing Board is not in favor of holding a large physical stock. The commodities market (Zimace) has been virtually inactive for the month of March. Zimace reports that a recent wet spell has "complicated the picture" for the grain trade as there is disagreement on whether the rain will improve crops; buyers and sellers are hesitant to trade until better firm estimates of this season's yields are available.
The FEWS Monthly Report of March 10 reports on a Government Crops Assessment mission in late February during which it noted a strong contrast between favorable crop conditions in the northern areas and poor conditions in the drought-prone southern areas, which have received far below normal rainfall this season. Grey leaf spot is also a concern.
The Government continues its Grain Loan Programme and Free Food Scheme; as of March 1, according to newspaper reports 670.000 people had applied for grain loans or free food. In February it released a detailed National Drought Relief Programme for 1998-1999. On February 27, the Minister of Lands and Agriculture presented donors with the government position on the land reform programme which he views as the only permanent solution to food security and poverty and as closely linked to overall drought preparedness.
For more information on regional food security, see the SADC Food Security Bulletin Monthly Update; for more information on climate and satellite imagery, see the Regional Remote Sensing Project Monthly Bulletins. Both are available through the SADC website homepage at www.zimbabwe.net/sadc-fanr/intro.htm. See also the Famine Early Warning System reports; the FEWS e-mail address is: <fews1@harare.iafrica.com>. The Drought Monitoring Centre in Harare publishes a Ten Day Drought Watch; its e-mail address is dmc@weather.utande.co.zw. For more information on Zimbabwe, see the UNDP (Harare) Drought Update; the March 23 issue focuses on NGOs and Drought.
Andrea Stoutland Regional El Nino Information Officer WFP Maputo office
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